Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

Classifying and mapping the urban transition in Vietnam

The urban transition almost always involves wrenching social adjustment as small agricultural communities are forced to adjust rapidly to industrial ways of life. Large-scale in-migration of young people, usually from poor regions, creates enormous demand and expectations for community and social services. One immediate problem planners face in approaching this challenge is how to define, differentiate, and map what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). This project established an urban classification for Vietnam by using national census and remote sensing data to identify and map the smallest administrative units for which data are collected as rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. We used both natural and human factors in the quantitative model: income from agriculture, land under agriculture and forests, houses with modern sanitation, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Model results suggest that in 2006, 71% of Vietnam's 10,891 communes were rural, 18% peri-urban, 3% urban, and 4% urban core. Of the communes our model classified as peri-urban, 61% were classified by the Vietnamese government as rural. More than 7% of Vietnam's land area can be classified as peri-urban and approximately 13% of its population (more than 11 million people) lives in peri-urban areas. We identified and mapped three types of peri-urban places: communes in the periphery of large towns and cities; communes along highways; and communes associated with provincial administration or home to industrial, energy, or natural resources projects (e.g., mining). We validated this classification based on ground observations, analyses of multi-temporal night-time lights data, and an examination of road networks. The model provides a method for rapidly assessing the rural–urban nature of places to assist planners in identifying rural areas undergoing rapid change with accompanying needs for investments in building, sanitation, road infrastructure, and government institutions.

Combining charcoal sediment and molecular markers to infer a Holocene fire history in the Maya Lowlands of Petén, Guatemala

Vegetation changes in the Maya Lowlands during the Holocene are a result of changing climate conditions, solely anthropogenic activities, or interactions of both factors. As a consequence, it is difficult to assess how tropical ecosystems will cope with projected changes in precipitation and land-use intensification over the next decades. We investigated the role offire during the Holocene by combining macroscopic charcoal and the molecular fire proxies levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan. Combining these two different fire proxies allows a more robust understanding of the complex history of fire re- gimes at different spatial scales during the Holocene. In order to infer changes in past biomass burning, we analysed a lake sediment core from Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala, and compared our results with millennial-scale vegetation and climate change available in the area. We detected three periods of high fire activity during the Holocene: 9500 e 6000 cal yr BP, 3700 cal yr BP and 2700 cal yr BP. We attribute the first maximum mostly to climate conditions and the last maximum to human activities. The rapid change between burned vegetation types at the 3700 cal yr BP fire maximum may result from human activity.

Rapid climate change during the Weichselian Lateglacial in Ireland: Chironomid-inferred summer temperatures from Fiddaun, Co. Galway

A lacustrine sediment core from Fiddaun, western Ireland was studied to reconstruct summer temperature changes during the Weichselian Lateglacial. This site is located close to the Atlantic Ocean; and so is potentially sensitive to climatic changes associated with changes in ocean circulation. The record, comprising the end of the Weichselian Pleniglacial to the early Holocene, was analysed for fossil chironomids, lithology, and oxygen and carbon isotopes in the sedimentary carbonates. These proxies clearly show rapid warming at the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial, relatively high summer temperatures during the Interstadial, pronounced cooling during the Younger Dryas, and subsequent warming at the transition to the Holocene. Chironomid-inferred mean July air temperatures for the Interstadial are ~12.5–14.5 °C, ~7.5 °C for the Younger Dryas, and ~15.0 °C for the early Holocene. Furthermore, this research provides evidence for at least two cold events during the Interstadial. These more moderate temperature oscillations can be correlated to Greenland Interstadial events 1b and 1d, on the basis of the age-depth model for the Fiddaun sequence. Based on multiple proxies, the first cold oscillation (GI-1d) was the more severe of the two in Ireland.

Rapid adaptation of visual search in simulated hemianopia

Patients with homonymous hemianopia have altered visual search patterns, but it is unclear how rapidly this develops and whether it reflects a strategic adaptation to altered perception or plastic changes to tissue damage. To study the temporal dynamics of adaptation alone, we used a gaze-contingent display to simulate left or right hemianopia in 10 healthy individuals as they performed 25 visual search trials. Visual search was slower and less accurate in hemianopic than in full-field viewing. With full-field viewing, there were improvements in search speed, fixation density, and number of fixations over the first 9 trials, then stable performance. With hemianopic viewing, there was a rapid shift of fixation into the blind field over the first 5-7 trials, followed by continuing gradual improvements in completion time, number of fixations, and fixation density over all 25 trials. We conclude that in the first minutes after onset of hemianopia, there is a biphasic pattern of adaptation to altered perception: an early rapid qualitative change that shifts visual search into the blind side, followed by more gradual gains in the efficiency of using this new strategy, a pattern that has parallels in other studies of motor learning.

Rapid assessment of cerebral autoregulation by near-infrared spectroscopy and a single dose of phenylephrine

Rapid bedside determination of cerebral blood pressure autoregulation (AR) may improve clinical utility. We tested the hypothesis that cerebral Hb oxygenation (HbDiff) and cerebral Hb volume (HbTotal) measured by near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) would correlate with cerebral blood flow (CBF) after single dose phenylephrine (PE). Critically ill patients requiring artificial ventilation and arterial lines were eligible. During rapid blood pressure rise induced by i.v. PE bolus, ΔHbDiff and ΔHbTotal were calculated by subtracting values at baseline (normotension) from values at peak blood pressure elevation (hypertension). With the aid of NIRS and bolus injection of indocyanine green, relative measures of CBF, called blood flow index (BFI), were determined during normotension and during hypertension. BFI during hypertension was expressed as percentage from BFI during normotension (BFI%). Autoregulation indices (ARIs) were calculated by dividing BFI%, ΔHbDiff, and ΔHbTotal by the concomitant change in blood pressure. In 24 patients (11 newborns and 13 children), significant correlations between BFI% and ΔHbDiff (or ΔHbTotal) were found. In addition, the associations between Hb-based ARI and BFI%-based ARI were significant with correlation coefficients of 0.73 (or 0.72). Rapid determination of dynamic AR with the aid of cerebral Hb signals and PE bolus seems to be reliable.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

Dilution and redistribution effects of rapid 2-litre infusions of 0.9% (w/v) saline and 5% (w/v) dextrose on haematological parameters and serum biochemistry in normal subjects: a double-blind crossover study

Although hypoalbuminaemia after injury may result from increased vascular permeability, dilution secondary to crystalloid infusions may contribute significantly. In this double-blind crossover study, the effects of bolus infusions of crystalloids on serum albumin, haematocrit, serum and urinary biochemistry and bioelectrical impedance analysis were measured in healthy subjects. Ten male volunteers received 2-litre infusions of 0.9% (w/v) saline or 5% (w/v) dextrose over 1 h; infusions were carried out on separate occasions, in random order. Weight, haemoglobin, serum albumin, serum and urinary biochemistry and bioelectrical impedance were measured pre-infusion and hourly for 6 h. The serum albumin concentration fell in all subjects (20% after saline; 16% after dextrose) by more than could be explained by dilution alone. This fall lasted more than 6 h after saline infusion, but values had returned to baseline 1 h after the end of the dextrose infusion. Changes in haematocrit and haemoglobin were less pronounced (7.5% after saline; 6.5% after dextrose). Whereas all the water from dextrose was excreted by 2 h after completion of the infusion, only one-third of the sodium and water from the saline had been excreted by 6 h, explaining its persistent diluting effect. Impedances rose after dextrose and fell after saline (P<0.001). Subjects voided more urine (means 1663 and 563 ml respectively) of lower osmolality (means 129 and 630 mOsm/kg respectively) and sodium content (means 26 and 95 mmol respectively) after dextrose than after saline (P<0.001). While an excess water load is excreted rapidly, an excess sodium load is excreted very slowly, even in normal subjects, and causes persistent dilution of haematocrit and serum albumin. The greater than expected change in serum albumin concentration when compared with that of haemoglobin suggests that, while dilution is responsible for the latter, redistribution also has a role in the former. Changes in bioelectrical impedance may reflect the electrolyte content rather than the volume of the infusate, and may be unreliable for clinical purposes.

Science for the Carpathians: Using Regional Capacity to Cope with Global Change

Emphasizing the global and regional importance of mountain ecosystem services and referring to the anticipated future environmental changes affecting the provision of these services, this chapter takes a closer look at the Carpathian Mountains. In addition to climate change and general effects of globalization, rapid socioeconomic transformations after the fall of the Iron Curtain pose an extra challenge to the sustainable development of the region. Describing the early efforts of organizing mountain science through programs such as UNESCO MAB and UNEP at the global scale, this chapter focuses on the recent history of research coordination for the European mountains, in particular on the activities of the Carpathian Convention and the European Program of the Mountain Research Initiative, which were among main driving factors for the initiation of the Science for the Carpathians (S4C) network. This regional mountain research network was established in 2008 to foster scientific collaboration and communication and to promote applied research and capacity building, which in turn would support sustainable development in the Carpathian Mountains. Forum Carpaticum, a biennial open science conference, has become a central activity of the S4C network counting more than 400 members today.

Shifting cultivation stability and change: Contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos

Rural areas in Laos are experiencing a rapid transformation from traditional rice-based shifting cultivation systems to more permanent and diversified market-oriented cultivation systems. The consequences of these changes for local livelihoods are not well known. This study analyzes the impact of shifting cultivation change on the livelihood of rural people in six villages in three districts of northern and central Laos. Focus group discussions and household interview questionnaires were employed for data collection. The study reveals that the shifting cultivation of rice is still important in these communities, but it is being intensified as cash crops are introduced. Changes in shifting cultivation during the past ten years vary greatly between the communities studied. In the northern study sites, it is decreasing in areas with rubber expansion and increasing in areas with maize expansion, while it is stable in the central site, where sugarcane is an important cash crop. The impacts of land use change on livelihoods are also diverse. Cash crop producers hold more agricultural land than non-cash crop producers, and rubber and sugarcane producers have fewer rice shortages than non-producers. In the future, livelihood improvements in the central study site may be replicated in the northern sites, but this depends to a large extent on the economic and agricultural settings into which cash crops and other development opportunities are introduced. Moreover, the expansion of cash crops appears to counteract Lao policies aimed at replacing shifting cultivation areas with forests.

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

Response of subfossil Cladocera in Gerzensee (Swiss Plateau) to early Late Glacial environmental change

Sub-fossil Cladocera were studied in a core from Gerzensee (Swiss Plateau) for the late-glacial periods of Oldest Dryas, Bølling, and Allerød. Cladocera assemblages were dominated by cold-tolerant littoral taxa Chydorus sphaericus, Acroperus harpae, Alonella nana, Alona affinis, and Alonella excisa. The rapid warming at the beginning of the Bølling (GI-1e) ca. 14,650 yr before present (BP: before AD 1950) was indicated by an abrupt 2‰ shift in carbonate δ18O and a clear change in pollen assemblages. Cladocera assemblages, in contrast, changed more gradually. C. sphaericus and A. harpae are the most cold-tolerant, and their abundance was highest in the earliest part of the record. Only 150–200 years after the beginning of the Bølling warming we observed an increase in less cold-tolerant A. excisa and A. affinis. The establishment of Alona guttata, A. guttata var. tuberculata, and Pleuroxus unicatus was delayed by ca. 350, 770, and 800 years respectively after the onset of the Bølling. The development of the Cladocera assemblages suggests increasing water temperatures during the Bølling/Allerød, which agrees with the interpretation by von Grafenstein et al. (2013-this issue) that decreasing δ18O values in carbonates in this period reflect increasing summer water temperatures at the sediment–water interface. Other processes also affected the Cladocera community, including the development and diversification of aquatic vegetation favourable for Cladocera. The record is clearly dominated by Chydoridae, as expected for a littoral core. Yet, the planktonic Eubosmina-group occurred throughout the core, with the exception of a period at ca. 13,760–13,420 yr BP. Lake levels reconstructed for this period are relatively low, indicating that the littoral location might have become too shallow for Eubosmina in that period.

Corneal cross-linking in keratoconus using the standard and rapid treatment protocol: differences in demarcation line and 12-month outcomes.

PURPOSE To compare the occurrence rate and depth of the demarcation line and topographical outcome after corneal cross-linking (CXL) for keratoconus using two different treatment protocols. METHODS A retrospective analysis of 131 eyes with progressive keratoconus treated with CXL using riboflavin and UV-A was performed. Eyes were treated either with the standard Dresden protocol (30 minutes irradiation, 3 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 1000) or a rapid protocol (10 minutes irradiation, 9 mW/cm(2), UV-XTM 2000). The presence and depth of the corneal demarcation line was assessed with an anterior segment optical coherence tomography device 1 month after CXL by a masked observer. Corneal topography and tomography was performed at baseline and at 12-month follow-up with Pentacam and the TMS (Topographic Modeling System) device. RESULTS In the standard protocol group, 76.5% (62/81) of treated corneas revealed a demarcation line 1 month after CXL, whereas such a demarcation line was observed in only 22% (11/50) of eyes treated with the rapid protocol (P < 0.0001). The demarcation line was significantly more superficial in the rapid protocol group (P = 0.004). Corneal topography values between baseline and 12 months after CXL showed a mean change of -0.76 diopters (D) in Kmax (SD ± 2.7) in the standard protocol group versus a mean change of +0.72 D in Kmax (SD ± 1.5) in the rapid protocol (P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS The rapid CXL protocol negatively influences the occurrence and depth of the demarcation line 1 month after CXL. Our results show a negative effect on the topographical outcome 1 year after CXL.