Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

The NutriChip project--translating technology into nutritional knowledge

Advances in food transformation have dramatically increased the diversity of products on the market and, consequently, exposed consumers to a complex spectrum of bioactive nutrients whose potential risks and benefits have mostly not been confidently demonstrated. Therefore, tools are needed to efficiently screen products for selected physiological properties before they enter the market. NutriChip is an interdisciplinary modular project funded by the Swiss programme Nano-Tera, which groups scientists from several areas of research with the aim of developing analytical strategies that will enable functional screening of foods. The project focuses on postprandial inflammatory stress, which potentially contributes to the development of chronic inflammatory diseases. The first module of the NutriChip project is composed of three in vitro biochemical steps that mimic the digestion process, intestinal absorption, and subsequent modulation of immune cells by the bioavailable nutrients. The second module is a miniaturised form of the first module (gut-on-a-chip) that integrates a microfluidic-based cell co-culture system and super-resolution imaging technologies to provide a physiologically relevant fluid flow environment and allows sensitive real-time analysis of the products screened in vitro. The third module aims at validating the in vitro screening model by assessing the nutritional properties of selected food products in humans. Because of the immunomodulatory properties of milk as well as its amenability to technological transformation, dairy products have been selected as model foods. The NutriChip project reflects the opening of food and nutrition sciences to state-of-the-art technologies, a key step in the translation of transdisciplinary knowledge into nutritional advice.

Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Assessing the state of Sustainable Land Management research in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

This article synthesizes findings from a review of the state of research on sustainable land management in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and from an analysis of the interface between research and action. Using the Global Land Project (GLP 2005) analytical framework, we analyzed the distribution of 131 selected publications (including a clearly defined set of local and international academic and gray literature) across the framework's components and links in a social–ecological system. There is a strong emphasis in the literature on the impact of changes in land use and management on ecosystems; however, there is little research on the implications for ecosystem services. This finding is opposed to that of a similar analysis of publications at the global scale (Björnsen Gurung et al 2012). Another major gap was the lack of research on Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan regarding the influence of global factors on social and ecological systems, despite social, economic, and political integration into global structures since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the increasing influence of climate change. Our analysis disaggregated academic literature published in the region and international academic literature, revealing stark differences. These differences are partly attributable to the legacy of the late Soviet era principle of “rational use of land resources,” which fit the planned economy but lacks approaches for decentralized resource governance. Finally, the emphasis of research on systems knowledge, the lack of transdisciplinary research, and the critical feedback of stakeholders at a regional sustainable land management forum suggest that actionable sustainable land management research on Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is rare. Recommendations are made for targeted, application-focused, multistakeholder research and knowledge sharing, including local and international researchers as well as practitioners, policy-makers, and land users.

Humane Orientation as a New Cultural Dimension of the GLOBE Project: A Validation Study of the GLOBE Scale and Out-Group Humane Orientation in 25 Countries

We validate, extend, and empirically and theoretically criticize the cultural dimension of humane orientation of the project GLOBE (Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness Research Program). Theoretically, humane orientation is not just a one-dimensionally positive concept about being caring, altruistic, and kind to others as discussed by Kabasakal and Bodur (2004), but there is also a certain ambivalence to this concept. We suggest differentiating humane orientation toward in-group members from humane orientation toward out-group members. A multicountry construct validation study used student samples from 25 countries that were either high or low in humane orientation (N = 876) and studied their relation to the traditional GLOBE scale and other cultural-level measures (agreeableness, religiosity, authoritarianism, and welfare state score). Findings revealed a strong correlation between humane orientation and agreeableness, welfare state score, and religiosity. Out-group humane orientation proved to be the more relevant subfacet of the original humane orientation construct, suggesting that future research on humane orientation should make use of this measure instead of the vague original scale. The ambivalent character of out-group humane orientation is displayed in its positive correlation to high authoritarianism. Patriotism was used as a control variable for noncritical acceptance of one’s society but did not change the correlations. Our findings are discussed as an example of how rigid expectations and a lack of tolerance for diversity may help explain the ambivalent nature of humane orientation

On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison

This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases.

A serial scheme for minimizing the duration of resource-constrained projects within Microsoft Project

Microsoft Project is one of the most-widely used software packages for project management. For the scheduling of resource-constrained projects, the package applies a priority-based procedure using a specific schedule-generation scheme. This procedure performs relatively poorly when compared against other software packages or state-of-the-art methods for resource-constrained project scheduling. In Microsoft Project 2010, it is possible to work with schedules that are infeasible with respect to the precedence or the resource constraints. We propose a novel schedule-generation scheme that makes use of this possibility. Under this scheme, the project tasks are scheduled sequentially while taking into account all temporal and resource constraints that a user can define within Microsoft Project. The scheme can be implemented as a priority-rule based heuristic procedure. Our computational results for two real-world construction projects indicate that this procedure outperforms the built-in procedure of Microsoft Project

Bathymetry of Lake Constance - State-of-the-art in surveying a large lake

In 2014 the by far largest German lake has been newly surveyed. The transnational project is funded by the European Union and delivers a detailed 3D-model of the lake- floor. The German project name is »Tiefenschärfe – Hochauflösende Vermessung Bo- densee«, which in English roughly means: high-resolution survey of Lake Constance. The German term »Tiefenschärfe« (in optics and photography: depth of field) plays with the meanings of »Tiefe« (depth) and »Schärfe« (sharpness). The result of the sur- vey shall be a clear and sharp image of the deep and shallow lake- floor. At present the LiDAR and multibeam data are still processed, but first results are presented in this article.

Han Migration to Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region: Between State Schemes and Migrants’ Strategies

Post-1949 Han migration to Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwest China is a hotly debated issue among the Xinjiang scholars and within the region itself. While it is often discussed using statistical data as a large-scale historical process, I argue in this article for a more differentiated view of Han migrants. I demonstrate that in the popular discourse migrants are distinguished into numerous categories like Bingtuaners , Profit-Driven Migrants, Border Supporters, Qualified Personnel, Educated Youth, and others. Accordingly, I argue that Han migrants to Xinjiang should not be understood as a homogeneous category of participants in a singular state project intended to establish state control over the region. High return rates demonstrate that state attempts to make Han settle in Xinjiang are only partly successful, and that migrants follow their own strategies when situation permits, rather than fulfill the government’s plans. Individuals who have migrated since the 1980s are especially careful in their assessment of the economic incentives of settlement, and many decide to remain mobile.

Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective

Land systems are the result of human interactions with the natural environment. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land systems on social and natural processes helps to reveal how changes in the land system affect the functioning of the socio-ecological system as a whole and the tradeoff these changes may represent. The Global Land Project has led advances by synthesizing land systems research across different scales and providing concepts to further understand the feedbacks between social-and environmental systems, between urban and rural environments and between distant world regions. Land system science has moved from a focus on observation of change and understanding the drivers of these changes to a focus on using this understanding to design sustainable transformations through stakeholder engagement and through the concept of land governance. As land use can be seen as the largest geo-engineering project in which mankind has engaged, land system science can act as a platform for integration of insights from different disciplines and for translation of knowledge into action.

The role of vulnerability factors in individuals with an at-risk mental state of psychosis

Background Several indicators of heightened vulnerability to psychosis and relevant stressors have been identified. However, it has rarely been studied prospectively to what extent these vulnerability factors are in fact more frequently present in individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis. Moreover, it remains unknown whether any of these contribute to the prediction of psychosis onset in at-risk mental state individuals. Methods There were 28 healthy controls, 86 first-episode psychosis patients and 127 at-risk mental state individuals recruited within the Basel “Früherkennung von Psychosen” project. Relative frequencies of selected vulnerability factors for psychosis were compared between healthy controls, psychosis patients, those at-risk mental state individuals with subsequent psychosis onset (n = 31) and those without subsequent psychosis onset (n = 55). Survival analyses were applied to determine associations between time to transition to psychosis and vulnerability factors in all 127 at-risk mental state individuals. Results The vulnerability factors/indicators such as “difficulties during school education or vocational training”, “difficulties during employment”, “being single”, “difficulties with intimate relationships” and “being burdened with specific stressful situations” were more commonly found in the at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis group than in healthy controls. Conclusions At-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis individuals more frequently present with vulnerability factors. Individual vulnerability factors appear, however, not to be predictive for an onset of psychosis.