Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Changes in German sport participation

Sport has become a highly differentiated social phenomenon in recent years. Changes in society, such as individualization, the growing significance of the health and body culture, and changing values, are considered to be generative mechanisms for increasing social importance and the differentiation of modern sport. Although discussions in sport sociology attribute the changes observed in recent decades of sport participation to a socially determined differentiation of sport, this premise has hardly ever been empirically tested. The present study examines to what extent the postulated developments in sport can be observed on the micro level of those engaging in sport, by examining sport behaviour from a contemporary historical perspective. Based on a life-course approach to research, a total of 1739 over 50-year-olds in Germany were asked about their sport participation as part of a retrospective longitudinal study. Results show that the increasing differentiation of sport can be documented by more diversified forms of individual sport careers. During a 30-year observation period the popularity of competitive sport decreased and the variety of ways in which sport was organized increased. A differentiated analysis based on examining three birth cohorts showed that the reported change in sport participation can be attributed to age, cohort and period effects. In addition, the present study examines how specific events in contemporary history are reflected in individual sporting careers. Sport careers in Chemnitz (Eastern Germany) and Braunschweig (Western Germany) differed before German reunification, but these differences have evened out after the political changes and the process of transformation.

Tools for better SLM knowledge management and informed decision-making in addressing land degradation at different scales: the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology

Desertification research conventionally focuses on the problem – that is, degradation – while neglecting the appraisal of successful conservation practices. Based on the premise that Sustainable Land Management (SLM) experiences are not sufficiently or comprehensively documented, evaluated, and shared, the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) initiative (www.wocat.net), in collaboration with FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project (www.fao.org/nr/lada/) and the EU’s DESIRE project (http://www.desire-project.eu/), has developed standardised tools and methods for compiling and evaluating the biophysical and socio-economic knowledge available about SLM. The tools allow SLM specialists to share their knowledge and assess the impact of SLM at the local, national, and global levels. As a whole, the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology comprises tools for documenting, self-evaluating, and assessing the impact of SLM practices, as well as for knowledge sharing and decision support in the field, at the planning level, and in scaling up identified good practices. SLM depends on flexibility and responsiveness to changing complex ecological and socioeconomic causes of land degradation. The WOCAT tools are designed to reflect and capture this capacity of SLM. In order to take account of new challenges and meet emerging needs of WOCAT users, the tools are constantly further developed and adapted. Recent enhancements include tools for improved data analysis (impact and cost/benefit), cross-scale mapping, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, and easier reporting on SLM best practices to UNCCD and other national and international partners. Moreover, WOCAT has begun to give land users a voice by backing conventional documentation with video clips straight from the field. To promote the scaling up of SLM, WOCAT works with key institutions and partners at the local and national level, for example advisory services and implementation projects. Keywords: Sustainable Land Management (SLM), knowledge management, decision-making, WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology.

Intraspecific sexual selection on a speciation trait, male coloration, in the Lake Victoria cichlid Pundamilia nyererei

The haplochromine cichlids of Lake Victoria constitute a classical example of explosive speciation. Extensive intra– and interspecific variation in male nuptial coloration and female mating preferences, in the absence of postzygotic isolation between species, has inspired the hypothesis that sexual selection has been a driving force in the origin of this species flock. This hypothesis rests on the premise that the phenotypic traits that underlie behavioural reproductive isolation between sister species diverged under sexual selection within a species. We test this premise in a Lake Victoria cichlid, by using laboratory experiments and field observations. We report that a male colour trait, which has previously been shown to be important for behavioural reproductive isolation between this species and a close relative, is under directional sexual selection by female mate choice within this species. This is consistent with the hypothesis that female choice has driven the divergence in male coloration between the two species. We also find that male territoriality is vital for male reproductive success and that multiple mating by females is common.

On the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers in loess paleosols

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate reconstructions based on molecular proxies, such as those derived from leaf-wax biomarkers, in loess-paleosol sequences represent a promising line of investigation in Quaternary research. The main premise of such reconstructions is the synsedimentary deposition of biomarkers and dust, which has become a debated subject in recent years. This study uses two independent approaches to test the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers: (i) long-chain n-alkanes and fatty acids are quantified in two sediment-depth profiles in glacial till on the Swiss Plateau, consisting of a Holocene topsoil and the underlying B and C horizons. Since glacial sediments are initially very poor in organic matter, significant amounts of leaf-wax biomarkers in the B and C horizons of those profiles would reflect postsedimentary root-derived or microbial contributions. (ii) Compound-specific radiocarbon measurements are conducted on n-alkanes and n-alkanoic (fatty) acids from several depth intervals in the loess section "Crvenka", Serbia, and the results are compared to independent estimates of sediment age. We find extremely low concentrations of plant-wax n-alkanes and fatty acids in the B and C horizons below the topsoils in the sediment profiles. Moreover, compound-specific radiocarbon analysis yields plant-wax 14C ages that agree well with published luminescence ages and stratigraphy of the Serbian loess deposit. Both approaches confirm that postsedimentary, root-derived or microbial contributions are negligible in the two investigated systems. The good agreement between the ages of odd and even homologues also indicates that reworking and incorporation of fossil leaf waxes is not particularly relevant either.

Does Age Matter? Semantic Memory in Healthy Young and Elderly Adults

Background: Semantic memory processes have been well described in literature. However, the available findings are mostly based on relatively young subjects and concrete word material (e.g. tree). Comparatively little information exists about semantic memory for abstract words (e.g. mind) and possible age related changes in semantic retrieval. In this respect, we developed a paradigm that is useful to investigate the implicit (i.e. attentionindependent) access to concrete and abstract semantic memory. These processes were then compared between young and elderly healthy subjects. Methods: A well established tool for investigating semantic memory processes is the semantic priming paradigm, which consists both of semantically unrelated and related word pairs. In our behavioral task these noun-noun word pairs were further divided into concrete, abstract and matched pronounceable non-word conditions. With this premise, the young and elderly participants performed a lexical decision task: they were asked to press a choice of two buttons as an indication for whether the word pair contained a non-word or not. In order to minimize controlled (i.e. attention-dependent) retrieval strategies, a short stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of 150ms was set. Reaction time (RT) changes and accuracy to related and unrelated words (priming effect) in the abstract vs. concrete condition (concreteness effect) were the dependent variables of interest. Results and Discussion: Statistical analysis confirmed both a significant priming effect (i.e. shorter RTs in semantically related compared to unrelated words) and a concreteness effect (i.e. RT decrease for concrete compared to abstract words) in the young and elderly subjects. There was no age difference in accuracy. The only age effect was a commonly known general slowing in RT over all conditions. In conclusion, age is not a critical factor in the implicit access to abstract and concrete semantic memory.

New ruralities – old gender dynamics?: A reflection on high-value crop agriculture in the light of the feminisation debates

While a remarkable continuity in smallholder agricultural production has been identified, the shift from subsistence orientation towards more wage dependence appears in a different light when analysed under a gender perspective. "Feminisation" has been a catchphrase to characterise some of these processes; however, the debate has been subject to overgeneralisation, and can only inadequately grasp the gender dynamics in what has been referred to as "new ruralities". Illustrated for high-value crop production as an expression of agricultural transition in the Global South, this contribution offers a critical account of the feminisation thesis. Instead of discarding the notion of feminisation, it advocates a reassessment of its potential as a comprehensive framework against which empirical findings can be reflected. While conventional uses of the feminisation thesis have, in their great majority, come up with the conclusion that for women it can always only get worse, I propose a perspective which reveals gains and risks and how they are shared between men and women as they engage in new agricultural labour markets. This perspective rests on a methodology for case-based, comparative studies developed in this paper as a contribution for assessing the nature of agricultural transition and to investigate the qualitative change associated with new ruralities. A distinctive appreciation of the substance of agricultural change for different members of the rural society – namely men and women, but also different men, and different women – is the premise for overcoming barriers to shared development, and for framing effective governance in the context of global development.

Geographic variation in floral allometry suggests repeated transitions between selfing and outcrossing in a mixed mating plant

• Premise of the study: Isometric and allometric scaling of a conserved floral plan could provide a parsimonious mechanism for rapid and reversible transitions between breeding systems. This scaling may occur during transitions between predominant autogamy and xenogamy, contributing to the maintenance of a stable mixed mating system. • Methods: We compared nine disjunct populations of the polytypic, mixed mating species Oenothera flava (Onagraceae) to two parapatric relatives, the obligately xenogamous species O. acutissima and the mixed mating species O. triloba. We compared floral morphology of all taxa using principal component analysis (PCA) and developmental trajectories of floral organs using ANCOVA homogeneity of slopes. • Key results: The PCA revealed both isometric and allometric scaling of a conserved floral plan. Three principal components (PCs) explained 92.5% of the variation in the three species. PC1 predominantly loaded on measures of floral size and accounts for 36% of the variation. PC2 accounted for 35% of the variation, predominantly in traits that influence pollinator handling. PC3 accounted for 22% of the variation, primarily in anther–stigma distance (herkogamy). During O. flava subsp. taraxacoides development, style elongation was accelerated relative to anthers, resulting in positive herkogamy. During O. flava subsp. flava development, style elongation was decelerated, resulting in zero or negative herkogamy. Of the two populations with intermediate morphology, style elongation was accelerated in one population and decelerated in the other. • Conclusions: Isometric and allometric scaling of floral organs in North American Oenothera section Lavauxia drive variation in breeding system. Multiple developmental paths to intermediate phenotypes support the likelihood of multiple mating system transitions.

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change

• Premise of the study: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments. • Methods: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain’s slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits. • Results: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values. • Conclusions: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.

Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.

How Entrepreneurs Become Skilled Cultural Operators

Cultural entrepreneurship and symbolic management perspectives portray entrepreneurs as skilled cultural operators and often assume them to be capable from the outset to purposefully use ‘cultural resources' in order to motivate resource-holding audiences to support their new ventures. We problematize this premise and develop a model of how entrepreneurs become skilful cultural operators and develop the cultural competences necessary for creating and growing their ventures. The model is grounded in a case study of an entrepreneur who set up shop and sought to acquire resources in a culturally unfamiliar setting. Our model proposes that two adaptive sensemaking processes - approval-driven sensemaking and autonomy-driven sensemaking - jointly facilitate the gradual development of cultural competences. These processes jointly enable entrepreneurs to gain cultural awareness and calibrate their symbolic enactments. Specifically, while approval-driven sensemaking facilitates recognizing cultural resources to symbolically couple a venture's identity claims more tightly with the cultural frames of targeted audiences and gain legitimate distinctiveness, autonomy-driven sensemaking enables recognizing cultural constraints and more effective symbolic decoupling to shield the venture from constraining cultural frames and defend the venture's autonomy and resources. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the theoretical implications of our study for cultural entrepreneurship and symbolic management research.

Energy Export Restrictions in the WTO Between Resources Nationalism and Sustainable Development

This chapter aims at contributing to the trade and energy debate by focusing on the specific issue of export restrictions. It starts from the premise that a balanced and efficient regulation of export barriers in the energy sector would contribute to tackle emerging energy concerns such as energy security and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies in light of the challenge of climate change mitigation. It assesses the adequacy of existing WTO rules on export restric­tions and accordingly identifies the main gaps and inconsistencies inherent in the current disciplines from an energy-specific perspective. Finally, it discusses the merits of an energy-specific approach to advance existing disciplines in the most deficient area of export duties based on the systematisation of the Russian ‘model’. Such approach could raise the overall level of commitments in the energy sector while still allowing for the systemic applicability of GATT environmental exceptions in a manner consistent with the principle of sus­tainable development recognised in the Preamble of the WTO Agreement.