Bivariate meta-analysis of predictive values of diagnostic tests can be an alternative to bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity

Meta-analysis of predictive values is usually discouraged because these values are directly affected by disease prevalence, but sensitivity and specificity sometimes show substantial heterogeneity as well. We propose a bivariate random-effects logitnormal model for the meta-analysis of the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests.

Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Background The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. Objective To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. Methods We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. Results The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). Conclusion Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.

Accuracy of immunological criteria for identifying virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy - The IeDEA Southern Africa Collaboration

Objectives  To determine the diagnostic accuracy of World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 and 2006 as well as United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 definitions of immunological failure for identifying virological failure (VF) in children on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Incomplete virological suppression (IVS) was defined as failure to achieve ≥1 HIV-RNA ≤400 copies/ml between 6 and 15 months on ART and viral rebound (VR) as confirmed HIV-RNA ≥5000 copies/ml in a child on ART for ≥18 months who had achieved suppression during the first year on treatment. Results  Among 3115 children [median (interquartile range) age 48 (20-84) months at ART initiation] on treatment for ≥1 year, sensitivity of immunological criteria for IVS was 10%, 6% and 26% for WHO 2006, WHO 2010 and DHHS 2008 criteria, respectively. The corresponding positive predictive values (PPV) were 31%, 20% and 20%. Diagnostic accuracy for VR was determined in 2513 children with ≥18 months of follow-up and virological suppression during the first year on ART with sensitivity of 5% (WHO 2006/2010) and 27% (DHHS 2008). PPV results were 42% (WHO 2010), 43% (WHO 2006) and 20% (DHHS 2008). Conclusion  Current immunological criteria are unable to correctly identify children failing ART virologically. Improved access to viral load testing is needed to reliably identify VF in children.

Functionally relevant coronary artery disease: comparison of 64-section CT angiography with myocardial perfusion SPECT

PURPOSE: To prospectively determine the accuracy of 64-section computed tomographic (CT) angiography for the depiction of coronary artery disease (CAD) that induces perfusion defects at myocardial perfusion imaging with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), by using myocardial perfusion imaging as the reference standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients gave written informed consent after the study details, including radiation exposure, were explained. The study protocol was approved by the local institutional review board. In patients referred for elective conventional coronary angiography, an additional 64-section CT angiography study and a myocardial perfusion imaging study (1-day adenosine stress-rest protocol) with technetium 99m-tetrofosmin SPECT were performed before conventional angiography. Coronary artery diameter narrowing of 50% or greater at CT angiography was defined as stenosis and was compared with the myocardial perfusion imaging findings. Quantitative coronary angiography served as a reference standard for CT angiography. RESULTS: A total of 1093 coronary segments in 310 coronary arteries in 78 patients (mean age, 65 years +/- 9 [standard deviation]; 35 women) were analyzed. CT angiography revealed stenoses in 137 segments (13%) corresponding to 91 arteries (29%) in 46 patients (59%). SPECT revealed 14 reversible, 13 fixed, and six partially reversible defects in 31 patients (40%). Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values, respectively, of CT angiography in the detection of reversible myocardial perfusion imaging defects were 95%, 53%, 94%, and 58% on a per-patient basis and 95%, 75%, 96%, and 72% on a per-artery basis. Agreement between CT and conventional angiography was very good (96% and kappa = 0.92 for patient-based analysis, 93% and kappa = 0.84 for vessel-based analysis). CONCLUSION: Sixty-four-section CT angiography can help rule out hemodynamically relevant CAD in patients with intermediate to high pretest likelihood, although an abnormal CT angiography study is a poor predictor of ischemia.

NIHSS score and arteriographic findings in acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score is associated with the findings of arteriography performed within the first hours after ischemic stroke. METHODS: We analyzed NIHSS scores on hospital admission and clinical and arteriographic findings of 226 consecutive patients (94 women, 132 men; mean age 62+/-12 years) who underwent arteriography within 6 hours of symptom onset in carotid stroke and within 12 hours in vertebrobasilar stroke. RESULTS: From stroke onset to hospital admission, 155+/-97 minutes elapsed, and from stroke onset to arteriography 245+/-100 minutes elapsed. Median NIHSS was 14 (range 3 to 38), and scores differed depending on the arteriographic findings (P<0.001). NIHSS scores in basilar, internal carotid, and middle cerebral artery M1 and M2 segment occlusions (central occlusions) were higher than in more peripherally located, nonvisible, or absent occlusions. Patients with NIHSS scores > or =10 had positive predictive values (PPVs) to show arterial occlusions in 97% of carotid and 96% of vertebrobasilar strokes. With an NIHSS score of > or =12, PPV to find a central occlusion was 91%. In a multivariate analysis, NIHSS subitems such as "level of consciousness questions," "gaze," "motor leg," and "neglect" were predictors of central occlusions. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant association of NIHSS scores and the presence and location of a vessel occlusion. With an NIHSS score > or =10, a vessel occlusion will likely be seen on arteriography, and with a score > or =12, its location will probably be central.

Multi-modal glioblastoma segmentation: man versus machine

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Reproducible segmentation of brain tumors on magnetic resonance images is an important clinical need. This study was designed to evaluate the reliability of a novel fully automated segmentation tool for brain tumor image analysis in comparison to manually defined tumor segmentations. METHODS We prospectively evaluated preoperative MR Images from 25 glioblastoma patients. Two independent expert raters performed manual segmentations. Automatic segmentations were performed using the Brain Tumor Image Analysis software (BraTumIA). In order to study the different tumor compartments, the complete tumor volume TV (enhancing part plus non-enhancing part plus necrotic core of the tumor), the TV+ (TV plus edema) and the contrast enhancing tumor volume CETV were identified. We quantified the overlap between manual and automated segmentation by calculation of diameter measurements as well as the Dice coefficients, the positive predictive values, sensitivity, relative volume error and absolute volume error. RESULTS Comparison of automated versus manual extraction of 2-dimensional diameter measurements showed no significant difference (p = 0.29). Comparison of automated versus manual segmentation of volumetric segmentations showed significant differences for TV+ and TV (p<0.05) but no significant differences for CETV (p>0.05) with regard to the Dice overlap coefficients. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (ρ) of TV+, TV and CETV showed highly significant correlations between automatic and manual segmentations. Tumor localization did not influence the accuracy of segmentation. CONCLUSIONS In summary, we demonstrated that BraTumIA supports radiologists and clinicians by providing accurate measures of cross-sectional diameter-based tumor extensions. The automated volume measurements were comparable to manual tumor delineation for CETV tumor volumes, and outperformed inter-rater variability for overlap and sensitivity.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Reconsidering the logic of World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grading in patients with severe subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECT Current data show a favorable outcome in up to 50% of patients with World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and a rather poor prediction of worst cases. Thus, the usefulness of the current WFNS grading system for identifying the worst scenarios for clinical studies and for making treatment decisions is limited. One reason for this lack of differentiation is the use of "negative" or "silent" diagnostic signs as part of the WFNS Grade V definition. The authors therefore reevaluated the WFNS scale by using "positive" clinical signs and the logic of the Glasgow Coma Scale as a progressive herniation score. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 182 patients with SAH who had poor grades on the WFNS scale. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally according to a modified classification, the WFNS herniation (hWFNS) scale (Grade IV, no clinical signs of herniation; Grade V, clinical signs of herniation). The prediction of poor outcome was compared between these two grading systems. RESULTS The positive predictive values of Grade V for poor outcome were 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.94-7.54) for WFNS Grade V and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI 3.78-19.47) for hWFNS Grade V. With respect to mortality, the positive predictive values were 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.01-7.69) for WFNS Grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI 3.07-13.14) for hWFNS Grade V. CONCLUSIONS Limiting WFNS Grade V to the positive clinical signs of the Glasgow Coma Scale such as flexion, extension, and pupillary abnormalities instead of including "no motor response" increases the prediction of mortality and poor outcome in patients with severe SAH.

Postmortem CT versus forensic autopsy: frequent discrepancies of tracheobronchial content findings.

In their daily forensic casework, the authors experienced discrepancies of tracheobronchial content findings between postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) and autopsy to an extent previously unnoticed in the literature. The goal of this study was to evaluate such discrepancies in routine forensic cases. A total of 327 cases that underwent PMCT prior to routine forensic autopsy were retrospectively evaluated for tracheal and bronchial contents according to PMCT and autopsy findings. Hounsfield unit (HU) values of tracheobronchial contents, causes of death, and presence of pulmonary edema were assessed in mismatching and matching cases. Comparing contents in PMCT and autopsy in each of the separately evaluated compartments of the respiratory tract low positive predictive values were assessed (trachea, 38.2 %; main bronchi, 40 %; peripheral bronchi, 69.1 %) indicating high discrepancy rates. The majority of tracheobronchial contents were viscous stomach contents in matching cases and low radiodensity materials (i.e., HU < 30) in mismatching cases. The majority of causes of death were cardiac related in the matching cases and skull/brain trauma in the mismatching cases. In mismatching cases, frequency of pulmonary edema was significantly higher than in matching cases. It can be concluded that discrepancies in tracheobronchial contents observed between PMCT and routine forensic autopsy occur in a considerable number of cases. Discrepancies may be explained by the runoff of contents via nose and mouth during external examination and the flow back of tracheal and main bronchial contents into the lungs caused by upright movement of the respiratory tract at autopsy.

Accuracy of cartilage-specific 3-Tesla 3D-DESS magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis of chondral lesions: comparison with knee arthroscopy

BACKGROUND Arthroscopy is considered as "the gold standard" for the diagnosis of traumatic intraarticular knee lesions. However, recent developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) now offer good opportunities for the indirect assessment of the integrity and structural changes of the knee articular cartilage. The study was to investigate whether cartilage-specific sequences on a 3-Tesla MRI provide accurate assessment for the detection of cartilage defects. METHODS A 3-Tesla (3-T) MRI combined with three-dimensional double-echo steady-state (3D-DESS) cartilage specific sequences was performed on 210 patients with knee pain prior to knee arthroscopy. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of magnetic resonance imaging were calculated and correlated to the arthroscopic findings of cartilaginous lesions. Lesions were classified using the modified Outerbridge classification. RESULTS For the 210 patients (1260 cartilage surfaces: patella, trochlea, medial femoral condyle, medial tibia, lateral femoral condyle, lateral tibia) evaluated, the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values of 3-T MRI were 83.3, 99.8, 84.4, and 99.8 %, respectively, for the detection of grade IV lesions; 74.1, 99.6, 85.2, and 99.3 %, respectively, for grade III lesions; 67.9, 99.2, 76.6, and 98.2 %, respectively, for grade II lesions; and 8.8, 99.5, 80, and 92 %, respectively, for grade I lesions. CONCLUSIONS For grade III and IV lesions, 3-T MRI combined with 3D-DESS cartilage-specific sequences represents an accurate diagnostic tool. For grade II lesions, the technique demonstrates moderate sensitivity, while for grade I lesions, the sensitivity is limited to provide reliable diagnosis compared to knee arthroscopy.

Performance of gene-expression profiling test score variability to predict future clinical events in heart transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND A single non-invasive gene expression profiling (GEP) test (AlloMap®) is often used to discriminate if a heart transplant recipient is at a low risk of acute cellular rejection at time of testing. In a randomized trial, use of the test (a GEP score from 0-40) has been shown to be non-inferior to a routine endomyocardial biopsy for surveillance after heart transplantation in selected low-risk patients with respect to clinical outcomes. Recently, it was suggested that the within-patient variability of consecutive GEP scores may be used to independently predict future clinical events; however, future studies were recommended. Here we performed an analysis of an independent patient population to determine the prognostic utility of within-patient variability of GEP scores in predicting future clinical events. METHODS We defined the GEP score variability as the standard deviation of four GEP scores collected ≥315 days post-transplantation. Of the 737 patients from the Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational (CARGO) II trial, 36 were assigned to the composite event group (death, re-transplantation or graft failure ≥315 days post-transplantation and within 3 years of the final GEP test) and 55 were assigned to the control group (non-event patients). In this case-controlled study, the performance of GEP score variability to predict future events was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC ROC). The negative predictive values (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV) including 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of GEP score variability were calculated. RESULTS The estimated prevalence of events was 17 %. Events occurred at a median of 391 (inter-quartile range 376) days after the final GEP test. The GEP variability AUC ROC for the prediction of a composite event was 0.72 (95 % CI 0.6-0.8). The NPV for GEP score variability of 0.6 was 97 % (95 % CI 91.4-100.0); the PPV for GEP score variability of 1.5 was 35.4 % (95 % CI 13.5-75.8). CONCLUSION In heart transplant recipients, a GEP score variability may be used to predict the probability that a composite event will occur within 3 years after the last GEP score. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00761787.

Clinical usefulness of gene-expression profile to rule out acute rejection after heart transplantation: CARGO II.

AIMS A non-invasive gene-expression profiling (GEP) test for rejection surveillance of heart transplant recipients originated in the USA. A European-based study, Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational II Study (CARGO II), was conducted to further clinically validate the GEP test performance. METHODS AND RESULTS Blood samples for GEP testing (AlloMap(®), CareDx, Brisbane, CA, USA) were collected during post-transplant surveillance. The reference standard for rejection status was based on histopathology grading of tissue from endomyocardial biopsy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), negative (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) for the GEP scores (range 0-39) were computed. Considering the GEP score of 34 as a cut-off (>6 months post-transplantation), 95.5% (381/399) of GEP tests were true negatives, 4.5% (18/399) were false negatives, 10.2% (6/59) were true positives, and 89.8% (53/59) were false positives. Based on 938 paired biopsies, the GEP test score AUC-ROC for distinguishing ≥3A rejection was 0.70 and 0.69 for ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, respectively. Depending on the chosen threshold score, the NPV and PPV range from 98.1 to 100% and 2.0 to 4.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION For ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, CARGO II GEP score performance (AUC-ROC = 0.70 and 0.69) is similar to the CARGO study results (AUC-ROC = 0.71 and 0.67). The low prevalence of ACR contributes to the high NPV and limited PPV of GEP testing. The choice of threshold score for practical use of GEP testing should consider overall clinical assessment of the patient's baseline risk for rejection.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Predictive value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate level versus CSF/blood glucose ratio for the diagnosis of bacterial meningitis following neurosurgery.

The value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate level and CSF/blood glucose ratio for the identification of bacterial meningitis following neurosurgery was assessed in a retrospective study. During a 3-year period, 73 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and could be grouped by preset criteria in one of three categories: proven bacterial meningitis (n = 12), presumed bacterial meningitis (n = 14), and nonbacterial meningeal syndrome (n = 47). Of 73 patients analyzed, 45% were treated with antibiotics and 33% with steroids at the time of first lumbar puncture. CSF lactate values (cutoff, 4 mmol/L), in comparison with CSF/blood glucose ratios (cutoff, 0.4), were associated with higher sensitivity (0.88 vs. 0.77), specificity (0.98 vs. 0.87), and positive (0.96 vs. 0.77) and negative (0.94 vs. 0.87) predictive values. In conclusion, determination of the CSF lactate value is a quick, sensitive, and specific test to identify patients with bacterial meningitis after neurosurgery.

Application of a new laser Doppler imaging system in planning and monitoring of surgical flaps

There is a demand for technologies able to assess the perfusion of surgical flaps quantitatively and reliably to avoid ischemic complications. The aim of this study is to test a new high-speed high-definition laser Doppler imaging (LDI) system (FluxEXPLORER, Microvascular Imaging, Lausanne, Switzerland) in terms of preoperative mapping of the vascular supply (perforator vessels) and postoperative flow monitoring. The FluxEXPLORER performs perfusion mapping of an area 9 x 9 cm with a resolution of 256 x 256 pixels within 6 s in high-definition imaging mode. The sensitivity and predictability to localize perforators is expressed by the coincidence of preoperatively assessed LDI high flow spots with intraoperatively verified perforators in nine patients. 18 free flaps are monitored before, during, and after total ischemia. 63% of all verified perforators correspond to a high flow spot, and 38% of all high flow spots correspond to a verified perforator (positive predictive value). All perfused flaps reveal a value of above 221 perfusion units (PUs), and all values obtained in the ischemic flaps are beneath 187 PU. In summary, we conclude that the present LDI system can serve as a reliable, fast, and easy-to-handle tool to detect ischemia in free flaps, whereas perforator vessels cannot be detected appropriately.