Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Anatomically-Driven Soft-Tissue Simulation Strategy for Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery Using Facial Muscle Template Model

We propose a computationally efficient and biomechanically relevant soft-tissue simulation method for cranio-maxillofacial (CMF) surgery. A template-based facial muscle reconstruction was introduced to minimize the efforts on preparing a patient-specific model. A transversely isotropic mass-tensor model (MTM) was adopted to realize the effect of directional property of facial muscles in reasonable computation time. Additionally, sliding contact around teeth and mucosa was considered for more realistic simulation. Retrospective validation study with postoperative scan of a real patient showed that there were considerable improvements in simulation accuracy by incorporating template-based facial muscle anatomy and sliding contact.

Parallel divergent adaptation along replicated altitudinal gradients in Alpine trout

Background The European trout (Salmo trutta species complex) occurs across a very wide altitudinal range from lowland rivers to alpine streams. Historically, the major European river systems contained different, evolutionarily distinct trout lineages, and some of this genetic diversity has persisted in spite of extensive human-mediated translocations. We used AFLP-based genome scans to investigate the extent of potentially adaptive divergence among major drainages and along altitudinal gradients replicated in several rivers. Results The proportion of loci showing evidence of divergent selection was larger between drainages than along altitudinal transects within drainages. This suggests divergent selection is stronger between drainages, or adaptive divergence is constrained by gene flow among populations within drainages, although the latter could not be confirmed at a more local scale. Still, altitudinal divergence occurred and, at approximately 2% of the markers, parallel changes of the AFLP band frequencies with altitude were observed suggesting that altitude may well be an important source of divergent selection within rivers. Conclusions Our results indicate that adaptive genetic divergence is common both between major European river systems and along altitudinal gradients within drainages. Alpine trout appear to be a promising model system to investigate the relative roles of divergent selection and gene flow in promoting or preventing adaptation to climate gradients.

A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

Acute trichinellosis increases susceptibility to Giardia lamblia infection in the mouse model

The intestinal protozoan parasite Giardia lamblia causes diarrhoea in humans and animals. In the present study, we used the C57BL/6 inbred mouse model to assess the impact of a nematode (Trichinella spiralis) infection on the course of a G. lamblia (clone GS/M-83-H7) infection. Acute trichinellosis coincided with transient intestinal inflammation and generated an intestinal environment that strongly promoted growth of G. lamblia trophozoites although the local anti-Giardia immunoglobulin (Ig) A production was not affected. This increased G. lamblia infection intensity correlated with intestinal mast cell infiltration, mast cell degranulation, and total IgE production. Furthermore, a G. lamblia single-infection investigated in parallel also resulted in intestinal mast cell accumulation but severe infiltration was triggered in the absence of IgE. Recently, intestinal mast cells emerging during a G. lamblia infection were reported to be involved in those immunological mechanisms that control intestinal proliferation of the parasite in mice. This anti-giardial activity was assumed to be related to the capacity of mast cells to produce IL-6. However, this previous assumption was questioned by our present immunohistological findings indicating that murine intestinal mast cells, activated during a G. lamblia infection were IL-6-negative. In the present co-infection experiments, mast cells induced during acute trichinellosis were not able to control a concurrent G. lamblia infection. This observation makes it feasible that the T. spiralis infection created an immunological and physiological environment that superimposed the anti-giardial effect of mast cells and thus favoured intestinal growth of G. lamblia trophozoites in double-infected mice. Furthermore, our findings raise the possibility that intestinal inflammation e.g. as a consequence of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection is a factor which contributes to increased susceptibility of a host to a G. lamblia infection. The phenomenon of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection prior to a G. lamblia infection is a frequent constellation in endemic areas of giardiasis and may therefore have a direct impact on the epidemiological situation of the disease.

The well-being model: a new drug interaction model for positive and negative effects

BACKGROUND: Drugs are routinely combined in anesthesia and pain management to obtain an enhancement of the desired effects. However, a parallel enhancement of the undesired effects might take place as well, resulting in a limited therapeutic usefulness. Therefore, when addressing the question of optimal drug combinations, side effects must be taken into account. METHODS: By extension of a previously published interaction model, the authors propose a method to study drug interactions considering also their side effects. A general outcome parameter identified as patient's well-being is defined by superposition of positive and negative effects. Well-being response surfaces are computed and analyzed for varying drugs pharmacodynamics and interaction types. In particular, the existence of multiple maxima and of optimal drug combinations is investigated for the combination of two drugs. RESULTS: Both drug pharmacodynamics and interaction type affect the well-being surface and the deriving optimal combinations. The effect of the interaction parameters can be explained in terms of synergy and antagonism and remains unchanged for varying pharmacodynamics. For all simulations performed for the combination of two drugs, the presence of more than one maximum was never observed. CONCLUSIONS: The model is consistent with clinical knowledge and supports previously published experimental results on optimal drug combinations. This new framework improves understanding of the characteristics of drug combinations used in clinical practice and can be used in clinical research to identify optimal drug dosing.

Essential role of choline for pneumococcal virulence in an experimental model of meningitis

Objectives: The goal of the present study was to elucidate the contribution of the newly recognized virulence factor choline to the pathogenesis of Streptococcus pneumoniae in an animal model of meningitis. Results: The choline containing strain D39Cho(-) and its isogenic choline-free derivative D39Cho(-)licA64 -each expressing the capsule polysaccharide 2 - were introduced intracisternally at an inoculum size of 10(3) CFU into 11 days old Wistar rats. During the first 8 h post infection both strains multiplied and stimulated a similar immune response that involved expression of high levels of proinflammatory cytokines, the matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9), IL-10, and the influx of white blood cells into the CSF. Virtually identical immune response was also elicited by intracisternal inoculation of 10(7) CFU equivalents of either choline-containing or choline-free cell walls. At sampling times past 8 h strain D39Cho(-) continued to replicate accompanied by an intense inflammatory response and strong granulocytic pleiocytosis. Animals infected with D39Cho(-) died within 20 h and histopathology revealed brain damage in the cerebral cortex and hippocampus. In contrast, the initial immune response generated by the choline-free strain D39Cho(-)licA64 began to decline after the first 8 h accompanied by elimination of the bacteria from the CSF in parallel with a strong WBC response peaking at 8 h after infection. All animals survived and there was no evidence for brain damage. Conclusion: Choline in the cell wall is essential for pneumococci to remain highly virulent and survive within the host and establish pneumococcal meningitis.

Multichannel EEG fields during and without visual input: frequency domain model source locations and dimensional complexities

27-Channel EEG potential map series were recorded from 12 normals with closed and open eyes. Intracerebral dipole model source locations in the frequency domain were computed. Eye opening (visual input) caused centralization (convergence and elevation) of the source locations of the seven frequency bands, indicative of generalized activity; especially, there was clear anteriorization of α-2 (10.5–12 Hz) and β-2 (18.5–21 Hz) sources (α-2 also to the left). Complexity of the map series' trajectories in state space (assessed by Global Dimensional Complexity and Global OMEGA Complexity) increased significantly with eye opening, indicative of more independent, parallel, active processes. Contrary to PET and fMRI, these results suggest that brain activity is more distributed and independent during visual input than after eye closing (when it is more localized and more posterior).

The free escape continuum of diffuse ions upstream of the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock

The Earth's bow shock is very efficient in accelerating ions out of the incident solar wind distribution to high energies (≈ 200 keV/e). Fluxes of energetic ions accelerated at the quasi-parallel bow shock, also known as diffuse ions, are best represented by exponential spectra in energy/charge, which require additional assumptions to be incorporated into these model spectra. One of these assumptions is a so-called "free escape boundary" along the interplanetary magnetic field into the upstream direction. Locations along the IBEX orbit are ideally suited for in situ measurements to investigate the existence of an upstream free escape boundary for bow shock accelerated ions. In this study we use 2 years of ion measurements from the background monitor on the IBEX spacecraft, supported by ACE solar wind observations. The IBEX Background Monitor is sensitive to protons > 14 keV, which includes the energy of the maximum flux for diffuse ions. With increasing distance from the bow shock along the interplanetary magnetic field, the count rates for diffuse ions stay constant for ions streaming away from the bow shock, while count rates for diffuse ions streaming toward the shock gradually decrease from a maximum value to ~1/e at distances of about 10 RE to 14 RE. These observations of a gradual decrease support the transition to a free escape continuum for ions of energy >14 keV at distances from 10 RE to 14 RE from the bow shock.

Food Volume Computation for Self Dietary Assessment Applications

There is great demand for easily-accessible, user-friendly dietary self-management applications. Yet accurate, fully-automatic estimation of nutritional intake using computer vision methods remains an open research problem. One key element of this problem is the volume estimation, which can be computed from 3D models obtained using multi-view geometry. The paper presents a computational system for volume estimation based on the processing of two meal images. A 3D model of the served meal is reconstructed using the acquired images and the volume is computed from the shape. The algorithm was tested on food models (dummy foods) with known volume and on real served food. Volume accuracy was in the order of 90 %, while the total execution time was below 15 seconds per image pair. The proposed system combines simple and computational affordable methods for 3D reconstruction, remained stable throughout the experiments, operates in near real time, and places minimum constraints on users.

Coherence and phase locking in the scalp EEG and between LORETA model sources, and microstates as putative mechanisms of brain temporo-spatial functional organization

Brain electric mechanisms of temporary, functional binding between brain regions are studied using computation of scalp EEG coherence and phase locking, sensitive to time differences of few milliseconds. However, such results if computed from scalp data are ambiguous since electric sources are spatially oriented. Non-ambiguous results can be obtained using calculated time series of strength of intracerebral model sources. This is illustrated applying LORETA modeling to EEG during resting and meditation. During meditation, time series of LORETA model sources revealed a tendency to decreased left-right intracerebral coherence in the delta band, and to increased anterior-posterior intracerebral coherence in the theta band. An alternate conceptualization of functional binding is based on the observation that brain electric activity is discontinuous, i.e., that it occurs in chunks of up to about 100 ms duration that are detectable as quasi-stable scalp field configurations of brain electric activity, called microstates. Their functional significance is illustrated in spontaneous and event-related paradigms, where microstates associated with imagery- versus abstract-type mentation, or while reading positive versus negative emotion words showed clearly different regions of cortical activation in LORETA tomography. These data support the concept that complete brain functions of higher order such as a momentary thought might be incorporated in temporal chunks of processing in the range of tens to about 100 ms as quasi-stable brain states; during these time windows, subprocesses would be accepted as members of the ongoing chunk of processing.

Use of activity monitors for assessment of pruritus in an acute model of canine atopic dermatitis

BACKGROUND: We developed a canine model of acute atopic dermatitis to evaluate the potential of compounds to treat pruritus and skin lesions induced in Dermatophagoides farinae (Df)-sensitized dogs. HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES: The aim was to investigate the effectiveness of long-term recording activity monitors to assess pruritus induced by allergen challenges. ANIMALS: Thirty-two Df-sensitized laboratory dogs. METHODS: In two blinded crossover studies, 28 Df-sensitized dogs were challenged on 3 days with a Df slurry applied to clipped abdominal skin. Dogs were treated with a positive control (prednisolone 1 mg/kg once daily for 5 days, starting 1 day before challenge) or left untreated; all were fitted with activity monitors. To confirm pruritus, a parallel study with four dogs was conducted, filming the dogs before and during challenge and assessing the film for pruritic behaviour. RESULTS: The activity of dogs treated with prednisolone was significantly lower between 00.00 and 03.00 h and between 03.00 and 06.00 h compared with untreated dogs (repeated-measures ANCOVA; P < 0.0001). To determine whether the recorded night-time activity corresponded to pruritic manifestations, we compared activity monitor and video recordings of four dogs for two periods (16.30-20.30 and 24.00-03.00 h) before and during a Df challenge. The correlation between night-time activity monitor activity and observed pruritic behaviour was highly significant (test of correlation coefficient versus zero: r = 0.57, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: Determination of night-time activity with activity monitors after allergen challenge appears to be an objective and practical way to assess pruritus in this experimental model of canine atopic dermatitis.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Evaluation of a Novel Screw Position in a Type III Distal Phalanx Fracture Model: An Ex Vivo Study

OBJECTIVE: Mechanical evaluation of a novel screw position used for repair in a type III distal phalanx fracture model and assessment of solar canal penetration (SCP). STUDY DESIGN: Experimental study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Disarticulated equine hooves (n = 24) and 24 isolated distal phalanges. METHODS: Hooves/distal phalanges cut in a sagittal plane were repaired with 1 of 2 different cortical screw placements in lag fashion. In group 1 (conventional screw placement), the screw was inserted halfway between the proximal border of the solar canal (SC) and the subchondral bone surface on a line parallel to the dorsal cortex, whereas in group 2, the screw was inserted more palmar/plantar, where a perpendicular line drawn from the group 1 position reached the palmar/plantar cortex. Construct strength was evaluated by 3-point bending to failure. SCP was assessed by CT imaging and macroscopically. RESULTS: Screws were significantly longer in group 2 and in forelimbs. Group 2 isolated distal phalanges had a significantly more rigid fixation compared with the conventional screw position (maximum point at failure 31%, bending stiffness 41% higher). Lumen reduction of the SC was observed in 13/52 specimens (all from group 2), of which 9 were forelimbs. CONCLUSIONS: More distal screw positioning compared with the conventionally recommended screw position for internal fixation of type III distal phalangeal fractures allows placement of a longer screw and renders a more rigid fracture fixation. The novel screw position, however, carries a higher risk of SCP