Prognose von Murganggefahren: Wie sicher ist sie?

Debris flows are highly complex natural phenomena. The assessment of these processes requires the parallel application of various approaches and methods. However, many uncertainties remain even if proven procedures are available. Uncertainties are highest for magnitude-frequency relations and for the behaviour of the process.

Fast parallel kriging-based stepwise uncertainty reduction with application to the identification of an excursion set

Stepwise uncertainty reduction (SUR) strategies aim at constructing a sequence of points for evaluating a function  f in such a way that the residual uncertainty about a quantity of interest progressively decreases to zero. Using such strategies in the framework of Gaussian process modeling has been shown to be efficient for estimating the volume of excursion of f above a fixed threshold. However, SUR strategies remain cumbersome to use in practice because of their high computational complexity, and the fact that they deliver a single point at each iteration. In this article we introduce several multipoint sampling criteria, allowing the selection of batches of points at which f can be evaluated in parallel. Such criteria are of particular interest when f is costly to evaluate and several CPUs are simultaneously available. We also manage to drastically reduce the computational cost of these strategies through the use of closed form formulas. We illustrate their performances in various numerical experiments, including a nuclear safety test case. Basic notions about kriging, auxiliary problems, complexity calculations, R code, and data are available online as supplementary materials.

[CONSORT 2010 Explanation and Elaboration: updated guidelines for reporting parallel group randomised trials (Chinese version)]

Overwhelming evidence shows the quality of reporting of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is not optimal. Without transparent reporting, readers cannot judge the reliability and validity of trial findings nor extract information for systematic reviews. Recent methodological analyses indicate that inadequate reporting and design are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects. Such systematic error is seriously damaging to RCTs, which are considered the gold standard for evaluating interventions because of their ability to minimise or avoid bias. A group of scientists and editors developed the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to improve the quality of reporting of RCTs. It was first published in 1996 and updated in 2001. The statement consists of a checklist and flow diagram that authors can use for reporting an RCT. Many leading medical journals and major international editorial groups have endorsed the CONSORT statement. The statement facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of RCTs. During the 2001 CONSORT revision, it became clear that explanation and elaboration of the principles underlying the CONSORT statement would help investigators and others to write or appraise trial reports. A CONSORT explanation and elaboration article was published in 2001 alongside the 2001 version of the CONSORT statement. After an expert meeting in January 2007, the CONSORT statement has been further revised and is published as the CONSORT 2010 Statement. This update improves the wording and clarity of the previous checklist and incorporates recommendations related to topics that have only recently received recognition, such as selective outcome reporting bias. This explanatory and elaboration document-intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the CONSORT statement-has also been extensively revised. It presents the meaning and rationale for each new and updated checklist item providing examples of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies. Several examples of flow diagrams are included. The CONSORT 2010 Statement, this revised explanatory and elaboration document, and the associated website (www.consort-statement.org) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of randomised trials.

CONSORT 2010 Explanation and Elaboration: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel group randomised trials

Overwhelming evidence shows the quality of reporting of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is not optimal. Without transparent reporting, readers cannot judge the reliability and validity of trial findings nor extract information for systematic reviews. Recent methodological analyses indicate that inadequate reporting and design are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects. Such systematic error is seriously damaging to RCTs, which are considered the gold standard for evaluating interventions because of their ability to minimise or avoid bias. A group of scientists and editors developed the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to improve the quality of reporting of RCTs. It was first published in 1996 and updated in 2001. The statement consists of a checklist and flow diagram that authors can use for reporting an RCT. Many leading medical journals and major international editorial groups have endorsed the CONSORT statement. The statement facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of RCTs. During the 2001 CONSORT revision, it became clear that explanation and elaboration of the principles underlying the CONSORT statement would help investigators and others to write or appraise trial reports. A CONSORT explanation and elaboration article was published in 2001 alongside the 2001 version of the CONSORT statement. After an expert meeting in January 2007, the CONSORT statement has been further revised and is published as the CONSORT 2010 Statement. This update improves the wording and clarity of the previous checklist and incorporates recommendations related to topics that have only recently received recognition, such as selective outcome reporting bias. This explanatory and elaboration document-intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the CONSORT statement-has also been extensively revised. It presents the meaning and rationale for each new and updated checklist item providing examples of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies. Several examples of flow diagrams are included. The CONSORT 2010 Statement, this revised explanatory and elaboration document, and the associated website (www.consort-statement.org) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of randomised trials.

Parallel synthesis and nucleic acid binding properties of C(6')-[alpha]-functionalized bicyclo-DNA

Two novel bicyclo-T nucleosides carrying a hydroxyl or a carboxymethyl substituent in C(6')-[alpha]-position were prepared and incorporated into oligodeoxynucleotides. During oligonucleotide deprotection the carboxymethyl substituent was converted into different amide substituents in a parallel way. Tm-measurements showed no dramatic differences in both, thermal affinity and mismatch discrimination, compared to unmodified oligonucleotides. The post-synthetic modification of the carboxymethyl substituent allows in principle for a parallel preparation of a library of oligonucleotides carrying diverse substituents at C(6'). In addition, functional groups can be placed into unique positions in a DNA double helix.

CONSORT 2010 explanation and elaboration: updated guidelines for reporting parallel group randomised trials

Overwhelming evidence shows the quality of reporting of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is not optimal. Without transparent reporting, readers cannot judge the reliability and validity of trial findings nor extract information for systematic reviews. Recent methodological analyses indicate that inadequate reporting and design are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects. Such systematic error is seriously damaging to RCTs, which are considered the gold standard for evaluating interventions because of their ability to minimise or avoid bias. A group of scientists and editors developed the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to improve the quality of reporting of RCTs. It was first published in 1996 and updated in 2001. The statement consists of a checklist and flow diagram that authors can use for reporting an RCT. Many leading medical journals and major international editorial groups have endorsed the CONSORT statement. The statement facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of RCTs. During the 2001 CONSORT revision, it became clear that explanation and elaboration of the principles underlying the CONSORT statement would help investigators and others to write or appraise trial reports. A CONSORT explanation and elaboration article was published in 2001 alongside the 2001 version of the CONSORT statement. After an expert meeting in January 2007, the CONSORT statement has been further revised and is published as the CONSORT 2010 Statement. This update improves the wording and clarity of the previous checklist and incorporates recommendations related to topics that have only recently received recognition, such as selective outcome reporting bias. This explanatory and elaboration document-intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the CONSORT statement-has also been extensively revised. It presents the meaning and rationale for each new and updated checklist item providing examples of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies. Several examples of flow diagrams are included. The CONSORT 2010 Statement, this revised explanatory and elaboration document, and the associated website (www.consort-statement.org) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of randomised trials.

Identification of the bovine Arachnomelia mutation by massively parallel sequencing implicates sulfite oxidase (SUOX) in bone development

Arachnomelia is a monogenic recessive defect of skeletal development in cattle. The causative mutation was previously mapped to a approximately 7 Mb interval on chromosome 5. Here we show that array-based sequence capture and massively parallel sequencing technology, combined with the typical family structure in livestock populations, facilitates the identification of the causative mutation. We re-sequenced the entire critical interval in a healthy partially inbred cow carrying one copy of the critical chromosome segment in its ancestral state and one copy of the same segment with the arachnomelia mutation, and we detected a single heterozygous position. The genetic makeup of several partially inbred cattle provides extremely strong support for the causality of this mutation. The mutation represents a single base insertion leading to a premature stop codon in the coding sequence of the SUOX gene and is perfectly associated with the arachnomelia phenotype. Our findings suggest an important role for sulfite oxidase in bone development.

Parallel divergent adaptation along replicated altitudinal gradients in Alpine trout

Background The European trout (Salmo trutta species complex) occurs across a very wide altitudinal range from lowland rivers to alpine streams. Historically, the major European river systems contained different, evolutionarily distinct trout lineages, and some of this genetic diversity has persisted in spite of extensive human-mediated translocations. We used AFLP-based genome scans to investigate the extent of potentially adaptive divergence among major drainages and along altitudinal gradients replicated in several rivers. Results The proportion of loci showing evidence of divergent selection was larger between drainages than along altitudinal transects within drainages. This suggests divergent selection is stronger between drainages, or adaptive divergence is constrained by gene flow among populations within drainages, although the latter could not be confirmed at a more local scale. Still, altitudinal divergence occurred and, at approximately 2% of the markers, parallel changes of the AFLP band frequencies with altitude were observed suggesting that altitude may well be an important source of divergent selection within rivers. Conclusions Our results indicate that adaptive genetic divergence is common both between major European river systems and along altitudinal gradients within drainages. Alpine trout appear to be a promising model system to investigate the relative roles of divergent selection and gene flow in promoting or preventing adaptation to climate gradients.

Effectiveness of a calcium sodium phosphosilicate-containing prophylaxis paste in reducing dentine hypersensitivity immediately and 4 weeks after a single application: a double-blind randomized controlled trial

AIMS The aim of this single-site, randomized, controlled, double-blind, 3-arm parallel study was to determine the effectiveness of a prophylaxis paste containing 15% calcium sodium phosphosilicate (CSPS; NovaMin(®) ) with and without fluoride in reducing dentine hypersensitivity immediately after a single application and 28 days following dental scaling and root planing. MATERIALS & METHODS Overall, 151 subjects were enrolled in this study. All subjects received a scaling and root planing procedure followed by a final prophylaxis step using one of three different prophylaxis pastes: Test-A (15% NovaMin(®) and NaF), Test-B (15% NovaMin(®) ) and a control. Dentine hypersensitivity was assessed by tactile stimulus (Yeaple Probe(®) ) and by air blast (Schiff scale) at baseline, immediately after and 28 days after a prophylaxis procedure. One hundred and forty-nine subjects completed the study. RESULTS Subjects having received the test prophylaxis pastes showed statistically lower (anova, p < 0.05) dentine hypersensitivity compared with the control group immediately after the prophylaxis procedure (Yeaple Probe(®) : Test-A = 20.9 ± 12.6, Test-B = 22.7 ± 12.9, Control=11.2 ± 3.1; Schiff score: Test-A = 1.1 ± 0.6, Test-B = 1.1 ± 0.6, Control = 2.0 ± 0.7) and after 28 days (Yeaple probe: Test-A = 21.5 ± 11.9, Test-B = 20.6 ± 11.3, Control = 11.8 ± 6.0; Schiff score: Test-A = 1.0 ± 0.6, Test-B = 1.0 ± 0.6, Control = 2.0 ± 0.7). CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, the single application of both fluoridated and non-fluoridated prophylaxis pastes containing 15% CSPS (NovaMin(®) ) provided a significant reduction of dentine hypersensitivity up to at least 28 days.

The free escape continuum of diffuse ions upstream of the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock

The Earth's bow shock is very efficient in accelerating ions out of the incident solar wind distribution to high energies (≈ 200 keV/e). Fluxes of energetic ions accelerated at the quasi-parallel bow shock, also known as diffuse ions, are best represented by exponential spectra in energy/charge, which require additional assumptions to be incorporated into these model spectra. One of these assumptions is a so-called "free escape boundary" along the interplanetary magnetic field into the upstream direction. Locations along the IBEX orbit are ideally suited for in situ measurements to investigate the existence of an upstream free escape boundary for bow shock accelerated ions. In this study we use 2 years of ion measurements from the background monitor on the IBEX spacecraft, supported by ACE solar wind observations. The IBEX Background Monitor is sensitive to protons > 14 keV, which includes the energy of the maximum flux for diffuse ions. With increasing distance from the bow shock along the interplanetary magnetic field, the count rates for diffuse ions stay constant for ions streaming away from the bow shock, while count rates for diffuse ions streaming toward the shock gradually decrease from a maximum value to ~1/e at distances of about 10 RE to 14 RE. These observations of a gradual decrease support the transition to a free escape continuum for ions of energy >14 keV at distances from 10 RE to 14 RE from the bow shock.

Adaptive plasticity and genetic divergence in feeding efficiency during parallel adaptive radiation of whitefish (Coregonus spp.)

Parallel phenotypic divergence in replicated adaptive radiations could either result from parallel genetic divergence in response to similar divergent selec- tion regimes or from equivalent phenotypically plastic response to the repeated occurrence of contrasting environments. In post-glacial fish, repli- cated divergence in phenotypes along the benthic-limnetic habitat axis is commonly observed. Here, we use two benthic-limnetic species pairs of whitefish from two Swiss lakes, raised in a common garden design, with reciprocal food treatments in one species pair, to experimentally measure whether feeding efficiency on benthic prey has a genetic basis or whether it underlies phenotypic plasticity (or both). To do so, we offered experimental fish mosquito larvae, partially burried in sand, and measured multiple feed- ing efficiency variables. Our results reveal both, genetic divergence as well as phenotypically plastic divergence in feeding efficiency, with the pheno- typically benthic species raised on benthic food being the most efficient forager on benthic prey. This indicates that both, divergent natural selection on genetically heritable traits and adaptive phenotypic plasticity, are likely important mechanisms driving phenotypic divergence in adaptive radiation.

Three-dimensional, task-specific robot therapy of the arm after stroke: a multicentre, parallel-group randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Arm hemiparesis secondary to stroke is common and disabling. We aimed to assess whether robotic training of an affected arm with ARMin--an exoskeleton robot that allows task-specific training in three dimensions-reduces motor impairment more effectively than does conventional therapy. METHODS: In a prospective, multicentre, parallel-group randomised trial, we enrolled patients who had had motor impairment for more than 6 months and moderate-to-severe arm paresis after a cerebrovascular accident who met our eligibility criteria from four centres in Switzerland. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive robotic or conventional therapy using a centre-stratified randomisation procedure. For both groups, therapy was given for at least 45 min three times a week for 8 weeks (total 24 sessions). The primary outcome was change in score on the arm (upper extremity) section of the Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA-UE). Assessors tested patients immediately before therapy, after 4 weeks of therapy, at the end of therapy, and 16 weeks and 34 weeks after start of therapy. Assessors were masked to treatment allocation, but patients, therapists, and data analysts were unmasked. Analyses were by modified intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00719433. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2009, and Sept 3, 2012, 143 individuals were tested for eligibility, of whom 77 were eligible and agreed to participate. 38 patients assigned to robotic therapy and 35 assigned to conventional therapy were included in analyses. Patients assigned to robotic therapy had significantly greater improvements in motor function in the affected arm over the course of the study as measured by FMA-UE than did those assigned to conventional therapy (F=4.1, p=0.041; mean difference in score 0.78 points, 95% CI 0.03-1.53). No serious adverse events related to the study occurred. INTERPRETATION: Neurorehabilitation therapy including task-oriented training with an exoskeleton robot can enhance improvement of motor function in a chronically impaired paretic arm after stroke more effectively than conventional therapy. However, the absolute difference between effects of robotic and conventional therapy in our study was small and of weak significance, which leaves the clinical relevance in question.

Divergent selection during speciation of Lake Malawi cichlid fishes inferred from parallel radiations in nuptial coloration

Repeated evolution of the same phenotypic difference during independent episodes of speciation is strong evidence for selection during speciation. More than 1,000 species of cichlids, >10% of the world's freshwater fish species, have arisen within the past million years in Lakes Malawi and Victoria in eastern Africa. Many pairs of closely related sympatric species differ in their nuptial coloration in very similar ways. Nuptial coloration is important in their mate choice, and speciation by sexual selection on genetically or ecologically constrained variation in nuptial coloration had been proposed, which would repeatedly produce similar nuptial types in different populations, a prediction that was difficult to test in the absence of population-level phylogenies. We measured genetic similarity between individuals within and between populations, species, and lake regions by typing 59 individuals at >2,000 polymorphic genetic loci. From these data, we reconstructed, to our knowledge, the first larger species level phylogeny for the most diverse group of Lake Malawi cichlids. We used the genetic and phylogenetic data to test the divergent selection scenario against colonization, character displacement, and hybridization scenarios that could also explain diverse communities. Diversity has arisen by replicated radiations into the same color types, resulting in phenotypically very different, yet closely related, species within and phenotypically highly similar yet unrelated sets of species between regions, which is consistent with divergent selection during speciation and is inconsistent with colonization and character displacement models.