IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

PCR and real-time PCR primers developed for detection and identification of Bifidobacterium thermophilum in faeces

BACKGROUND: Culture-independent methods based on the 16S ribosomal RNA molecule are nowadays widely used for assessment of the composition of the intestinal microbiota, in relation to host health or probiotic efficacy. Because Bifidobacterium thermophilum was only recently isolated from human faeces until now, no specific real-time PCR (qPCR) assay has been developed for detection of this species as component of the bifidobacterial community of the human intestinal flora. RESULTS: Design of specific primers and probe was achieved based on comparison of 108 published bifidobacterial 16S rDNA sequences with the recently published sequence of the human faecal isolate B. thermophilum RBL67. Specificity of the primer was tested in silico by similarity search against the sequence database and confirmed experimentally by PCR amplification on 17 Bifidobacterium strains, representing 12 different species, and two Lactobacillus strains. The qPCR assay developed was linear for B. thermophilum RBL67 DNA quantities ranging from 0.02 ng/microl to 200 ng/microl and showed a detection limit of 10(5) cells per gram faeces. The application of this new qPCR assay allowed to detect the presence of B. thermophilum in one sample from a 6-month old breast-fed baby among 17 human faecal samples tested. Additionally, the specific qPCR primers in combination with selective plating experiments led to the isolation of F9K9, a faecal isolate from a 4-month old breast-fed baby. The 16S rDNA sequence of this isolate is 99.93% similar to that of B. thermophilum RBL67 and confirmed the applicability of the new qPCR assay in faecal samples. CONCLUSION: A new B. thermophilum-specific qPCR assay was developed based on species-specific target nucleotides in the 16S rDNA. It can be used to further characterize the composition of the bifidobacterial community in the human gastrointestinal tract. Until recently, B. thermophilum was considered as a species of animal origin, but here we confirm with the application of this new PCR assay the presence of B. thermophilum strains in the human gut.

Reproducibility and accuracy of the ICDAS-II for occlusal caries detection

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this in vitro study was to assess the inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility and the accuracy of the International Caries Detection and Assessment System-II (ICDAS-II) in detecting occlusal caries. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-three molars were independently assessed twice by two experienced dentists using the 0- to 6-graded ICDAS-II. The teeth were histologically prepared and classified using two different histological systems [Ekstrand et al. (1997) Caries Research vol. 31, pp. 224-231; Lussi et al. (1999) Caries Research vol. 33, pp. 261-266] and assessed for caries extension. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the ROC curve (A(z)) were obtained at D(2) and D(3) thresholds. Unweighted kappa coefficient was used to assess inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: For the Ekstrand et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.99 and 1.00, specificity 1.00 and 0.69 and accuracy 0.99 and 0.76 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. For the Lussi et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.91 and 0.75, specificity 0.47 and 0.62 and accuracy 0.86 and 0.68 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. The A(z) varied from 0.54 to 0.73. The inter- and intra-examiner kappa values were 0.51 and 0.58, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ICDAS-II presented good reproducibility and accuracy in detecting occlusal caries, especially caries lesions in the outer half of the enamel.

Community mean traits as additional indicators to monitor effects of land-use intensity on grassland plant diversity

Semi-natural grasslands, biodiversity hotspots in Central-Europe, suffer from the cessation of traditional land-use. Amount and intensity of these changes challenge current monitoring frameworks typically based on classic indicators such as selected target species or diversity indices. Indicators based on plant functional traits provide an interesting extension since they reflect ecological strategies at individual and ecological processes at community levels. They typically show convergent responses to gradients of land-use intensity over scales and regions, are more directly related to environmental drivers than diversity components themselves and enable detecting directional changes in whole community dynamics. However, probably due to their labor- and cost intensive assessment in the field, they have been rarely applied as indicators so far. Here we suggest overcoming these limitations by calculating indicators with plant traits derived from online accessible databases. Aiming to provide a minimal trait set to monitor effects of land-use intensification on plant diversity we investigated relationships between 12 community mean traits, 2 diversity indices and 6 predictors of land-use intensity within grassland communities of 3 different regions in Germany (part of the German ‘Biodiversity Exploratory’ research network). By standardization of traits and diversity measures, use of null models and linear mixed models we confirmed (i) strong links between functional community composition and plant diversity, (ii) that traits are closely related to land-use intensity, and (iii) that functional indicators are equally, or even more sensitive to land-use intensity than traditional diversity indices. The deduced trait set consisted of 5 traits, i.e., specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), seed release height, leaf distribution, and onset of flowering. These database derived traits enable the early detection of changes in community structure indicative for future diversity loss. As an addition to current monitoring measures they allow to better link environmental drivers to processes controlling community dynamics.

Detecting offsets in GPS time series: first results from the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment

The accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series is degraded by the presence of offsets. To assess the effectiveness of methods that detect and remove these offsets, we designed and managed the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment. We simulated time series that mimicked realistic GPS data consisting of a velocity component, offsets, white and flicker noises (1/f spectrum noises) composed in an additive model. The data set was made available to the GPS analysis community without revealing the offsets, and several groups conducted blind tests with a range of detection approaches. The results show that, at present, manual methods (where offsets are hand picked) almost always give better results than automated or semi‒automated methods (two automated methods give quite similar velocity bias as the best manual solutions). For instance, the fifth percentile range (5% to 95%) in velocity bias for automated approaches is equal to 4.2 mm/year (most commonly ±0.4 mm/yr from the truth), whereas it is equal to 1.8 mm/yr for the manual solutions (most commonly 0.2 mm/yr from the truth). The magnitude of offsets detectable by manual solutions is smaller than for automated solutions, with the smallest detectable offset for the best manual and automatic solutions equal to 5 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Assuming the simulated time series noise levels are representative of real GPS time series, robust geophysical interpretation of individual site velocities lower than 0.2–0.4 mm/yr is therefore certainly not robust, although a limit of nearer 1 mm/yr would be a more conservative choice. Further work to improve offset detection in GPS coordinates time series is required before we can routinely interpret sub‒mm/yr velocities for single GPS stations.

Early Detection and Treatment of Psychosis: The Bern Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Perspective

Commonly conceptualized as neurodevelopmental disorders of yet poorly understood aetiology, schizophrenia and other nonorganic psychoses remain one of the most debilitating illnesses with often poor outcome despite all progress in treatment of the manifest disorder. Drawing on the frequent poor outcome of psychosis and its association with the frequently extended periods of untreated first-episode psychosis (FEP) including its prodrome, an early detection and treatment of both the FEP and the preceding at-risk mental state (ARMS) have been increasingly studied. Thereby both approaches are confronted with different problems, for example, treatment engagement in FEP and predictive accuracy in ARMS. They share, however, the problems related to the lack of understanding of developmental, that is, age-related, peculiarities and of the presentation and natural course of their cardinal symptoms in the community. Most research on early detection and intervention in FEP and ARMS is still related to clinical psychiatric samples, and little is known about symptom presentation and burden and help-seeking in the general population related to these experiences. Furthermore, in particular in the early detection of an ARMS, studies often address adolescents and young adults alike without consideration of developmental characteristics, thereby applying risk criteria that have been developed predominately in adults. Combining our earlier experiences described in this paper in child and adolescent, and general psychiatry as well as in both lines of research, that is, on early psychosis and its treatment and on the early detection of psychosis, in particular in its very early states by subjective disturbances in terms of basic symptoms, age-related developmental and epidemiological aspects have therefore been made the focus of our current studies in Bern, thus making our line of research unique

Nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) among Swiss veterinary health care providers: detection of livestock- and healthcare-associated clones.

We screened a total of 340 veterinarians (including general practitioners, small animal practitioners, large animal practitioners, veterinarians working in different veterinary services or industry), and 29 veterinary assistants for nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) at the 2012 Swiss veterinary annual meeting. MRSA isolates (n = 14) were detected in 3.8 % (95 % CI 2.1 - 6.3 %) of the participants whereas MRSP was not detected. Large animal practitioners were carriers of livestock-associated MRSA (LA-MRSA) ST398-t011-V (n = 2), ST398-t011-IV (n = 4), and ST398-t034-V (n = 1). On the other hand, participants working with small animals harbored human healthcare-associated MRSA (HCA-MRSA) which belonged to epidemic lineages ST225-t003-II (n = 2), ST225-t014-II (n = 1), ST5-t002-II (n = 2), ST5-t283-IV (n = 1), and ST88-t186-IV (n = 1). HCA-MRSA harbored virulence factors such as enterotoxins, β-hemolysin converting phage and leukocidins. None of the MRSA isolates carried Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL). In addition to the methicillin resistance gene mecA, LA-MRSA ST398 isolates generally contained additional antibiotic resistance genes conferring resistance to tetracycline [tet(M) and tet(K)], trimethoprim [dfrK, dfrG], and the aminoglycosides gentamicin and kanamycin [aac(6')-Ie - aph(2')-Ia]. On the other hand, HCA-MRSA ST5 and ST225 mainly contained genes conferring resistance to the macrolide, lincosamide and streptogramin B antibiotics [erm(A)], to spectinomycin [ant(9)-Ia], amikacin and tobramycin [ant(4')-Ia], and to fluoroquinolones [amino acid substitutions in GrlA (S84L) and GyrA (S80F and S81P)]. MRSA carriage may represent an occupational risk and veterinarians should be aware of possible MRSA colonization and potential for developing infection or for transmitting these strains. Professional exposure to animals should be reported upon hospitalization and before medical intervention to allow for preventive measures. Infection prevention measures are also indicated in veterinary medicine to avoid MRSA transmission between humans and animals, and to limit the spread of MRSA both in the community, and to animal and human hospitals.

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion ‘cognitive disturbances’ (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The ‘genetic risk and functional decline’ UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

Differentiation between Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species by real-time PCR including detection of methicillin resistants in comparison to conventional microbiology testing.

BACKGROUND Staphylococcus aureus has long been recognized as a major pathogen. Methicillin-resistant strains of S. aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-resistant strains of S. epidermidis (MRSE) are among the most prevalent multiresistant pathogens worldwide, frequently causing nosocomial and community-acquired infections. METHODS In the present pilot study, we tested a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method to quickly differentiate Staphylococci and identify the mecA gene in a clinical setting. RESULTS Compared to the conventional microbiology testing the real-time PCR assay had a higher detection rate for both S. aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CoNS; 55 vs. 32 for S. aureus and 63 vs. 24 for CoNS). Hands-on time preparing DNA, carrying out the PCR, and evaluating results was less than 5 h. CONCLUSIONS The assay is largely automated, easy to adapt, and has been shown to be rapid and reliable. Fast detection and differentiation of S. aureus, CoNS, and the mecA gene by means of this real-time PCR protocol may help expedite therapeutic decision-making and enable earlier adequate antibiotic treatment.