Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Background The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. Objective To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. Methods We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. Results The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). Conclusion Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.

Development and validation of decision rules to guide frequency of monitoring CD4 cell count in HIV-1 infection before starting antiretroviral therapy

Background Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Methodology/Principal Findings We built up two prediction rules (“Snap-shot rule” for a single sample and “Track-shot rule” for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior ≥5% or <5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200×106/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold. Conclusions/Significance Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count >650 for a threshold of 200, >900 for 350, or >1150 for 500×106/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

[Methods for investigating Trichinella infections in domestic and wild animals]

Trichinellosis is an important parasitic zoonosis that is caused by the intracellular nematode Trichinella spp.. Infection of humans occurs through consumption of raw (or undercooked) meat containing infectious larvae. In Europe, meat from pork, horse, and wild boar have been identified as most important sources of Trichinella infections in humans. In Switzerland, both the domestic pig and wild boar population are considered free of Trichinella. Conversely, Swiss foxes, lynxs and recently a wolf were found to be infected, the species identified in these animals was always referred to as Trichinella britovi. Although this species rarely infects pork and, compared to Trichinella spiralis, only causes reduced pathogenic effects in humans, the basic presence of Trichinella in Switzerland cannot be neglegted. This fact has gained increasing importance since the responsible authorities in the European Union (EU) are preparing regulations for the official Trichinella-control in meat in order to improve food safety for consumers. These regulations will be implemented as a consequence of the recent association of east European countries with the EU. This new legislation particularly takes into account, that in the past by far most cases of human trichinellosis in the EU were due to consumption of imported east European meat.Within the framework of the bilateral agreements of Switzerland with the EU, the Swiss veterinary public health authorities will have to comply with the foreseen EU regulations. Although diagnostic methods for the direct demonstation of Trichinella in pork meat are already routine practice in several Swiss abattoirs, the implementation of a meat control program for Trichinella for the entire slaughter pig population of the country would lead to an enormous increase in costs for the administration and will require an increased infrastructure in veterinary services. In order to find a reduced testing format for monitoring Trichinella infections in Swiss pork, an infection risk-oriented survey strategy is currently evaluated. In the present article, this minimized survey strategy is discussed regarding its compatibility with the EU regulations laying down rules for the official control of meat for Trichinella.