The applicability of non-local LCI data for LCA

This study evaluated how applicable European Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data are to assessing the environmental impacts of the life cycle of Brazilian triple superphosphate (TSP). The LCI data used for the comparison were local Brazilian LCI data, European LCI data in its original version from the ecoinvent database and a modified version of the European LCI data, which had been adapted to better account for the Brazilian situation. We compared the three established datasets at the level of the inventory as well as for their environmental impacts, i.e. at the level of Life Cycle Environmental Assessment (LCIA). The analysis showed that the European LCIs (both the original and the modified ones) considered a broader spectrum of background processes and environmental flows (inputs and outputs). Nevertheless, TSP production had in all three cases similar values for the consumption of the main raw materials. The LCIA results obtained for the datasets showed important differences as well. Therefore we concluded that the European data in general lead to much higher environmental impacts than the Brazilian data. The differences between the LCIA results obtained with the Brazilian and the European data can be basically explained by the methodological differences underlying the data. The small differences at the LCI level for selected inputs and outputs between the Brazilian and the European LCIs from ecoinvent indicate that the latter can be regarded as applicable for characterizing the Brazilian TSP.

Does upward social mobility increase life satisfaction? A longitudinal analysis using British and Swiss panel data

A main assumption of social production function theory is that status is a major determinant of subjective well-being (SWB). From the perspective of the dissociative hypothesis, however, upward social mobility may be linked to identity problems, distress, and reduced levels of SWB because upwardly mobile people lose their ties to their class of origin. In this paper, we examine whether or not one of these arguments holds. We employ the United Kingdom and Switzerland as case studies because both are linked to distinct notions regarding social inequality and upward mobility. Longitudinal multilevel analyses based on panel data (UK: BHPS, Switzerland: SHP) allow us to reconstruct individual trajectories of life satisfaction (as a cognitive component of SWB) along with events of intragenerational and intergenerational upward mobility—taking into account previous levels of life satisfaction, dynamic class membership, and well-studied determinants of SWB. Our results show some evidence for effects of social class and social mobility on well-being in the UK sample, while there are no such effects in the Swiss sample. The UK findings support the idea of dissociative effects in terms of a negative effect of intergenerational upward mobility on SWB.

Gender differences at the transition to higher education between migrants and non-migrants: A comparison between Switzerland and France

Within Western societies women or girls meanwhile outperform men or boys with regard to attainments in primary and secondary education. For example concerning upper secondary degrees the share of females attaining the Matura approaches two thirds in Switzerland, while the share of females attaining the Baccalaureate exceeds fifty per cent in France. However, if transitions to higher education are regarded, the share of entitled females entering such institutions is significantly lower than among men in Switzerland. An opposite pattern is observed in France where females outperform men at this educational stage, too. With regard to migrant background, it has been shown by previous research focussing on secondary effects of ethnic origin that such youths enter the more demanding educational tracks (e.g. higher education) more often than their non-migrant peers if controlled for eligibility, their lower socioeconomic status and performances. However, so far only a few studies refer to the question of a possible gender gap regarding secondary effects of ethnic origin (e.g. Fleischmann et al., mimeo). Thus, with regard to a possible interaction of a migrant background and - for example - a female gender, it is important to note that in both countries many migrant groups have their origins in countries and regions where male advantage remains very strong. This is in particular the case for migrant groups from non-Western countries, e.g. Turkey, Algeria, Marocco or Tunisie, where gender gaps in the literacy rates of up to 18 per cent are still observed. In order to investigate the question of a possible disadvantages of women with a migrant background stemming from such countries when compared to non-migrant females two panel studies - the Tree data in Switzerland and the Panel d’élèves 1995 in France -, are analysed.

Reliabilität von retrospektiven Berufsverlaufsdaten. Ein Vergleich zwischen dem öffentlichen Dienst und der Privatwirtschaft anhand von Panel-Daten

Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird die Zuverlässigkeit retrospektiver Angaben der Befragten zu beruflichen Tätigkeiten in ihrem Berufsverlauf untersucht. Insbesondere ist ausgehend von einem Befund von De Graaf und Wegener (1989) zu klären, ob generell Beschäftigte des öffentlichen Dienstes ihren Berufsverlauf unzuverlässiger erinnern als Staatsbeschäftigte. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass gerade Beamte aufgrund der institutionellen Besonderheiten ihrer Beschäftigung größere Schwierigkeiten haben, ihren Berufsverlauf konsistent zu rekonstruieren als andere Befragte. Empirische Analysen von Panel-Daten erhärten diese Vermutung, was die Anzahl der beruflichen Tätigkeiten anbelangt. Jedoch machen Beamte zu anderen Attributen ihres Berufsverlaufs ebenso zuverlässige Angaben wie andere Befragte auch. Diese beamtenspezifischen Erinnerungsprobleme sind bei zukünftigen Erhebungen mittels ereignisorientierter Befragungsinstrumente zu berücksichtigen.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Modeling of red blood cell life-spans in hematologically normal populations

Despite the impact of red blood cell (RBC) Life-spans in some disease areas such as diabetes or anemia of chronic kidney disease, there is no consensus on how to quantitatively best describe the process. Several models have been proposed to explain the elimination process of RBCs: random destruction process, homogeneous life-span model, or a series of 4-transit compartment model. The aim of this work was to explore the different models that have been proposed in literature, and modifications to those. The impact of choosing the right model on future outcomes prediction--in the above mentioned areas--was also investigated. Both data from indirect (clinical data) and direct life-span measurement (biotin-labeled data) methods were analyzed using non-linear mixed effects models. Analysis showed that: (1) predictions from non-steady state data will depend on the RBC model chosen; (2) the transit compartment model, which considers variation in life-span in the RBC population, better describes RBC survival data than the random destruction or homogenous life-span models; and (3) the additional incorporation of random destruction patterns, although improving the description of the RBC survival data, does not appear to provide a marked improvement when describing clinical data.

Exercise for osteoarthritis of the hip

BACKGROUND: Current international treatment guidelines recommending therapeutic exercise for people with symptomatic hip OA report are based on expert opinion only. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether land-based therapeutic exercise is beneficial for people with hip OA in terms of reduced joint pain and/or improved physical function. SEARCH STRATEGY: Five databases were searched from 1966 up until August 2008. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) recruiting people with hip OA and comparing some form of land-based therapeutic exercise (as opposed to exercises conducted in the water) with a non-exercise group. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality. All analyses were conducted on continuous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Combining the results of the five included RCTs demonstrated a small treatment effect for pain, but no benefit in terms of improved self-reported physical function. Only one of these five RCTs exclusively recruited people with symptomatic hip OA. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The limited number and small sample size of the included RCTs restricts the confidence that can be attributed to these results. Adequately powered RCTs evaluating exercise programs specifically designed for people with symptomatic hip OA need to be conducted.

Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.

Distance-based kriging relying on proxy simulations for inverse conditioning

Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.

Exercise for osteoarthritis of the hip.

BACKGROUND Current international treatment guidelines recommending therapeutic exercise for people with symptomatic hip osteoarthritis (OA) report are based on limited evidence. OBJECTIVES To determine whether land-based therapeutic exercise is beneficial for people with hip OA in terms of reduced joint pain and improved physical function and quality of life. SEARCH METHODS We searched five databases from inception up to February 2013. SELECTION CRITERIA All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) recruiting people with hip OA and comparing some form of land-based therapeutic exercise (as opposed to exercises conducted in water) with a non-exercise group. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Four review authors independently selected studies for inclusion. We resolved disagreements through consensus. Two review authors independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias and the quality of the body of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach. We conducted analyses on continuous outcomes (pain, physical function and quality of life) and dichotomous outcomes (proportion of study withdrawals). MAIN RESULTS We considered that seven of the 10 included RCTs had a low risk of bias. However, the results may be vulnerable to performance and detection bias as none of the RCTs were able to blind participants to treatment allocation and, while most RCTs reported blinded outcome assessment, pain, physical function and quality of life were participant self reported. One of the 10 RCTs was only reported as a conference abstract and did not provide sufficient data for the evaluation of bias risk.High-quality evidence from nine trials (549 participants) indicated that exercise reduced pain (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.55 to -0.20) and improved physical function (SMD -0.38, 95% CI -0.54 to -0.05) immediately after treatment. Pain and physical function were estimated to be 29 points on a 0- to 100-point scale (0 was no pain or loss of physical function) in the control group; exercise reduced pain by an equivalent of 8 points (95% CI 4 to 11 points; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 6) and improved physical function by an equivalent of 7 points (95% CI 1 to 12 points; NNTB 6). Only three small studies (183 participants) evaluated quality of life, with overall low quality evidence, with no benefit of exercise demonstrated (SMD -0.07, 95% CI -0.23 to 0.36). Quality of life was estimated to be 50 points on a norm-based mean (standard deviation (SD)) score of 50 (10) in the general population in the control group; exercise improved quality of life by 0 points. Moderate-quality evidence from seven trials (715 participants) indicated an increased likelihood of withdrawal from the exercise allocation (event rate 6%) compared with the control group (event rate 3%), but this difference was not significant (risk difference 1%; 95% CI -1% to 4%). Of the five studies reporting adverse events, each study reported only one or two events and all were related to increased pain attributed to the exercise programme.The reduction in pain was sustained at least three to six months after ceasing monitored treatment (five RCTs, 391 participants): pain (SMD -0.38, 95% CI -0.58 to -0.18). Pain was estimated to be 29 points on a 0- to 100-point scale (0 was no pain) in the control group, the improvement in pain translated to a sustained reduction in pain intensity of 8 points (95% CI 4 to 12 points) compared with the control group (0 to 100 scale). The improvement in physical function was also sustained (five RCTs, 367 participants): physical function (SMD -0.37, 95% CI -0.57 to -0.16). Physical function was estimated to be 24 points on a 0- to 100-point scale (0 was no loss of physical function) in the control group, the improvement translated to a mean of 7 points (95% CI 4 to 13) compared with the control group.Only five of the 10 RCTs exclusively recruited people with symptomatic hip OA (419 participants). There was no significant difference in pain or physical function outcomes compared with five studies recruiting participants with hip or knee OA (130 participants). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Pooling the results of these 10 RCTs demonstrated that land-based therapeutic exercise programmes can reduce pain and improve physical function among people with symptomatic hip OA.

Assessing the Potential of Multiple Imputation in Sequence Analysis

Sequence analysis and optimal matching are useful heuristic tools for the descriptive analysis of heterogeneous individual pathways such as educational careers, job sequences or patterns of family formation. However, to date it remains unclear how to handle the inevitable problems caused by missing values with regard to such analysis. Multiple Imputation (MI) offers a possible solution for this problem but it has not been tested in the context of sequence analysis. Against this background, we contribute to the literature by assessing the potential of MI in the context of sequence analyses using an empirical example. Methodologically, we draw upon the work of Brendan Halpin and extend it to additional types of missing value patterns. Our empirical case is a sequence analysis of panel data with substantial attrition that examines the typical patterns and the persistence of sex segregation in school-to-work transitions in Switzerland. The preliminary results indicate that MI is a valuable methodology for handling missing values due to panel mortality in the context of sequence analysis. MI is especially useful in facilitating a sound interpretation of the resulting sequence types.

Recognition of activities of daily living in healthy subjects using two ad-hoc classifiers

Activities of daily living (ADL) are important for quality of life. They are indicators of cognitive health status and their assessment is a measure of independence in everyday living. ADL are difficult to reliably assess using questionnaires due to self-reporting biases. Various sensor-based (wearable, in-home, intrusive) systems have been proposed to successfully recognize and quantify ADL without relying on self-reporting. New classifiers required to classify sensor data are on the rise. We propose two ad-hoc classifiers that are based only on non-intrusive sensor data. METHODS: A wireless sensor system with ten sensor boxes was installed in the home of ten healthy subjects to collect ambient data over a duration of 20 consecutive days. A handheld protocol device and a paper logbook were also provided to the subjects. Eight ADL were selected for recognition. We developed two ad-hoc ADL classifiers, namely the rule based forward chaining inference engine (RBI) classifier and the circadian activity rhythm (CAR) classifier. The RBI classifier finds facts in data and matches them against the rules. The CAR classifier works within a framework to automatically rate routine activities to detect regular repeating patterns of behavior. For comparison, two state-of-the-art [Naïves Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF)] classifiers have also been used. All classifiers were validated with the collected data sets for classification and recognition of the eight specific ADL. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1,373 ADL, the RBI classifier correctly determined 1,264, while missing 109 and the CAR determined 1,305 while missing 68 ADL. The RBI and CAR classifier recognized activities with an average sensitivity of 91.27 and 94.36%, respectively, outperforming both RF and NB. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the classifiers varied significantly and shows that the classifier plays an important role in ADL recognition. Both RBI and CAR classifier performed better than existing state-of-the-art (NB, RF) on all ADL. Of the two ad-hoc classifiers, the CAR classifier was more accurate and is likely to be better suited than the RBI for distinguishing and recognizing complex ADL.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Educational Systems and Gender Segregation in Education: A Three-Country Comparison of Germany, Norway and Canada

How do institutional settings and their embedded policy principles affect gender-typed enrolment in educational programmes? Based on gender-sensitive theories on career choice, we hypothesised that gender segregation in education is higher with a wider range of offers of vocational programmes. By analysing youth survey and panel data, we tested this assumption for Germany, Norway and Canada, three countries whose educational systems represent a different mix of academic, vocational and universalistic education principles. We found that vocational programmes are considerably more gender-segregated than are academic (e.g. university) programmes. Men, more so than women, can avoid gender-typed programmes by passing on to a university education. This in turn means that as long as their secondary school achievement does not allow for a higher education career, they have a higher likelihood of being allocated to male-typed programmes in the vocational education and training (VET) system. In addition, social background and the age at which students have to choose educational offers impact on the transition to gendered educational programmes. Overall, gender segregation in education is highest in Germany and the lowest in Canada. We interpret the differences between these countries with respect to the constellations of educational principles and policies in the respective countries.