Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

The Effect Of Misleading Prior Information On The Subjective Visual Vertical

When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

Non-comparative versus Comparative Advertising of Quality

Two firms produce a good with a horizontal and a vertical character- istic called quality. The difference in the unobservable quality levels determines how the firms share the market. We consider two scenar- ios: In the first one, firms disclose quality; in the second one, they send costly signals thereof. Under non-comparative advertising a firm advertises its own quality, under comparative advertising a firm adver- tises the quality differential. In either scenario, under comparative ad- vertising the firms never advertise together which they may do under non-comparative advertising. Moreover, under comparative advertis- ing firms do not advertise when the informational value to consumers is small.

A case of EDTA-dependent pseudothrombocytopenia: simple recognition of an underdiagnosed and misleading phenomenon

1. BMC Clin Pathol. 2014 May 1;14:19. doi: 10.1186/1472-6890-14-19. eCollection 2014. A case of EDTA-dependent pseudothrombocytopenia: simple recognition of an underdiagnosed and misleading phenomenon. Nagler M, Keller P, Siegrist D, Alberio L. Author information: Department of Hematology and Central Hematology Laboratory, Inselspital University Hospital and University of Berne, CH-3010 Berne, Switzerland. BACKGROUND: EDTA-dependent pseudothrombocytopenia (EDTA-PTCP) is a common laboratory phenomenon with a prevalence ranging from 0.1-2% in hospitalized patients to 15-17% in outpatients evaluated for isolated thrombocytopenia. Despite its harmlessness, EDTA-PTCP frequently leads to time-consuming, costly and even invasive diagnostic investigations. EDTA-PTCP is often overlooked because blood smears are not evaluated visually in routine practice and histograms as well as warning flags of hematology analyzers are not interpreted correctly. Nonetheless, EDTA-PTCP may be diagnosed easily even by general practitioners without any experiences in blood film examinations. This is the first report illustrating the typical patterns of a platelet (PLT) and white blood cell (WBC) histograms of hematology analyzers. CASE PRESENTATION: A 37-year-old female patient of Caucasian origin was referred with suspected acute leukemia and the crew of the emergency unit arranged extensive investigations for work-up. However, examination of EDTA blood sample revealed atypical lymphocytes and an isolated thrombocytopenia together with typical patterns of WBC and PLT histograms: a serrated curve of the platelet histogram and a peculiar peak on the left side of the WBC histogram. EDTA-PTCP was confirmed by a normal platelet count when examining citrated blood. CONCLUSION: Awareness of typical PLT and WBC patterns may alert to the presence of EDTA-PTCP in routine laboratory practice helping to avoid unnecessary investigations and over-treatment. PMCID: PMC4012027 PMID: 24808761 [PubMed]

Communion-over-Agency effects on advertising effectiveness

Gender-stereotypical portrayals of communal women and agentic men are highly common in advertising. But past research indicates that advertising effectiveness is higher when endorsers are portrayed as communal – irrespective of their gender. The aim of the current research is to explore this communion-over-agency effect on advertising effectiveness and its underlying mechanism. Two studies provide evidence for a communion-over-agency effect on advertising effectiveness (i.e., attitude toward the ad and brand). These studies show that the communion-over-agency effect on attitude toward the ad is mediated by endorser likeability (simple mediation). The effect on attitude toward the brand is mediated by endorser likeability and attitude toward the ad (serial multiple mediation). In concert, this research underscores the significance of communion (and agency) on endorser evaluation and advertising effectiveness.