Applying erosion damage mapping to asses and quantify off-site effects of soil erosion in Switzerland

In order to fill existing knowledge gaps in the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion, its sources and causes, as well as in relation to its off-site impacts, erosion damage mapping of all visible erosion features was carried out at three study sites in Switzerland. The data illustrate that about one-quarter of the cultivated land was affected by water erosion. Observed mean annual soil loss rates are considered rather low (0.7–2.3 t/ha/y) compared to other European countries. However, substantial losses of >70 t/ha were recorded on individual plots. This paper focuses on the spatial aspects of soil erosion, by observing and comparing the study areas in a 1-year period from October 2005 to October 2006. The analyses illustrate that the sites differ considerably in average soil loss rates, but show similar patterns of off-site effects. In about one-third of the damaged plots an external source of surface runoff upslope contributed to the damage (run-on). Similarly, more than 50 per cent of the soil eroded on arable land deposited downslope on adjacent plots, roads, public/private infrastructure, etc., and 20 per cent of it reached open water bodies. Large amounts of eroded soil which deposit off-site, often related to slope depressions, are considered muddy floods and were frequently observed in Switzerland. Mapping, in conclusion, helps to sheds light on some of the important challenges of today, in particular: to comprehensively assess socioeconomic and ecological off-site effects of soil erosion, to attribute off-site impacts to on-site causes, and to raise awareness of all stakeholders involved, in order to improve ongoing discussions on policy formulation and implementation at the national and international levels.

Assessment of soil erosion and soil conservation practices in Angereb watershed, Ethiopia: Technological and land user context

Soil conservation technologies that fit well to local scale and are acceptable to land users are increasingly needed. To achieve this at small-holder farm level, there is a need for an understanding of specific erosion processes and indicators, the land users’ knowledge and their willingness, ability and possibilities to respond to the respective problems to decide on control options. This study was carried out to assess local erosion and performance of earlier introduced conservation terraces from both technological and land users’ points of view. The study was conducted during July to August 2008 at Angereb watershed on 58 farm plots from three selected case-study catchments. Participatory erosion assessment and evaluation were implemented along with direct field measurement procedures. Our focus was to involve the land users in the action research to explore with them the effectiveness of existing conservation measures against the erosion hazard. Terrace characteristics measured and evaluated against the terrace implementation guideline of Hurni (1986). The long-term consequences of seasonal erosion indicators had often not been known and noticed by farmers. The cause and effect relationships of the erosion indicators and conservation measures have shown the limitations and gaps to be addressed towards sustainable erosion control strategies. Less effective erosion control has been observed and participants have believed the gaps are to be the result of lack of landusers’ genuine participation. The results of both local erosion observation and assessment of conservation efficacy using different aspects show the need to promote approaches for erosion evaluation and planning of interventions by the farmers themselves. This paper describes the importance of human factor involving in the empirical erosion assessment methods towards sustainable soil conservation.

Erosion Damage Mapping: Assessing Current Soil Erosion Damage in Switzerland

Within the scope of a comprehensive assessment of the degree of soil erosion in Switzerland, common methods have been used in the past including test plot measurements, artificial rainfall simulation, and erosion modelling. In addition, mapping guidelines for all visible erosion features have been developed since the 1970s and are being successfully applied in many research and soil conservation projects. Erosion damage has been continuously mapped over a period of 9 years in a test region in the central Bernese plateau. In 2005, two additional study areas were added. The present paper assesses the data gathered and provides a comparison of the three study areas within a period of one year (from October 2005 to October 2006), focusing on the on-site impacts of soil erosion. During this period, about 11 erosive rainfall events occurred. Average soil loss rates mapped at each study site amounted to 0.7 t ha-1, 1.2 t ha-1 and 2.3 t ha-1, respectively. About one fourth of the total arable land showed visible erosion damage. Maximum soil losses of about 70 t ha-1 occurred on individual farm plots. Average soil erosion patterns are widely used to underline the severity of an erosion problem (e.g. impacts on water bodies). But since severe rainfall events, wheel tracks, headlands, and other “singularities” often cause high erosion rates, analysis of extreme erosion patterns such as maximum values led to a more differentiated understanding and appropriate conclusions for planning and design of soil protection measures. The study contains an assessment of soil erosion in Switzerland, emphasizing questions about extent, frequency and severity. At the same time, the effects of different types of land management are investigated in the field, aiming at the development of meaningful impact indicators of (un-)sustainable agriculture/soil erosion risk as well as the validation of erosion models. The results illustrate that conservation agriculture including no-till, strip tillage and in-mulch seeding plays an essential role in reducing soil loss as compared to conventional tillage.

Spatial Assessment of Erosion and its Impact on Soil Fertility in the Tajik Foothills

Efficient planning of soil conservation measures requires, first, to understand the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility with regard to local land cover classes; and second, to identify hot spots of soil erosion and bright spots of soil conservation in a spatially explicit manner. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important indicator of soil fertility. The aim of this study was to conduct a spatial assessment of erosion and its impact on SOC for specific land cover classes. Input data consisted of extensive ground truth, a digital elevation model and Landsat 7 imagery from two different seasons. Soil spectral reflectance readings were taken from soil samples in the laboratory and calibrated with results of SOC chemical analysis using regression tree modelling. The resulting model statistics for soil degradation assessments are promising (R2=0.71, RMSEV=0.32). Since the area includes rugged terrain and small agricultural plots, the decision tree models allowed mapping of land cover classes, soil erosion incidence and SOC content classes at an acceptable level of accuracy for preliminary studies. The various datasets were linked in the hot-bright spot matrix, which was developed to combine soil erosion incidence information and SOC content levels (for uniform land cover classes) in a scatter plot. The quarters of the plot show different stages of degradation, from well conserved land to hot spots of soil degradation. The approach helps to gain a better understanding of the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility and to identify hot and bright spots in a spatially explicit manner. The results show distinctly lower SOC content levels on large parts of the test areas, where annual crop cultivation was dominant in the 1990s and where cultivation has now been abandoned. On the other hand, there are strong indications that afforestations and fruit orchards established in the 1980s have been successful in conserving soil resources.

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: A mathematical modelling analysis

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system

Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.

Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Published individual-based, dynamic sexual network modelling studies reach different conclusions about the population impact of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis. The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models. METHODS: Three models simulating population-level sexual behaviour, chlamydia transmission, screening and partner notification were used. Parameters describing a hypothetical annual opportunistic screening program in 16-24 year olds were standardised, whereas other parameters from the three original studies were retained. Model predictions of the change in chlamydia prevalence were compared under a range of scenarios. RESULTS: Initial overall chlamydia prevalence rates were similar in women but not men and there were age and sex-specific differences between models. The number of screening tests carried out was comparable in all models but there were large differences in the predicted impact of screening. After 10 years of screening, the predicted reduction in chlamydia prevalence in women aged 16-44 years ranged from 4% to 85%. Screening men and women had a greater impact than screening women alone in all models. There were marked differences between models in assumptions about treatment seeking and sexual behaviour before the start of the screening intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Future models of chlamydia transmission should be fitted to both incidence and prevalence data. This meta-modelling study provides essential information for explaining differences between published studies and increasing the utility of individual-based chlamydia transmission models for policy making.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring. RESULTS POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring. CONCLUSION The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.