Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.

Apparent survival of the salamander

Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.

Temporal genetic structure and relatedness in the Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula suggests limited kin association in winter

Conspecific aggregation of waterfowl in winter is a common example of animal flocking behaviour, yet patterns of relatedness and temporal substructure in such social groups remain poorly understood even in common species. A previous study based on mark-recapture data showed that Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula caught on the same day were re-caught together in subsequent winters more often than expected by chance, suggesting stable assortments of ‘socially familiar’ individuals between wintering periods. The genetic relationships within these social groups were not clear. Based on 191 individuals genotyped at 10 microsatellite markers, we investigated the temporal genetic structure and patterns of relatedness among wintering Tufted Ducks at Lake Sempach, Switzerland, in two consecutive winters. We found no evidence of genetic differentiation between temporal groups within or between winters. The average levels of relatedness in temporal groups were low and not higher than expected in random assortments of individuals. However, Mantel tests performed for each sex separately revealed significant negative correlations between the pairwise relatedness coefficients and the number of days between the capture dates of pairs of wintering Tufted Duck in males and females. This pattern suggests the presence of a small number of co-migrating same-sex sibling pairs in wintering flocks of Tufted Ducks. Our findings provide one of the first genetic analyses of a common duck species outside the breeding season and contribute to the understanding of social interactions in long-distance migratory birds.

Locomotor activity of two sympatric slugs: implication for the invasion success of terrestrial invertebrates.

A central focus of invasion biology is to identify the traits that predict which introduced species will become invasive. Behavioral traits related to locomotor activity most likely play a pivotal role in determining a species’invasion success but have rarely been studied, particularly in terrestrial invertebrates. Here, we experimentally investigated the small-scale locomotor activity of two slug species with divergent invasion success in Europe, the highly invasive slug, Arion lusitanicus, and the closely related, non-invasive and native slug, Arion rufus. To do so, we used a multi-state capture-mark-recapture approach, and hypothesized that the invasive slug has a higher moving rate (keeps on moving) and leaving rate (leaves more frequently known places). A total of 221 invasive and 241 non-invasive slugs were individually marked using magnetic transponders and released in three study sites differing in habitat type. The slugs were recaptured using shelter traps, and moving and leaving rates were estimated. Both rates were significantly higher for the invasive slug, demonstrating a higher locomotor activity which might partly explain its invasion success. Our results provide evidence for the recently suggested idea that locomotor activity might be an important trait underlying animal invasions using for the first time terrestrial invertebrates.

A new method to monitor visual field defects caused by photoreceptor degeneration by quantitative optical coherence tomography

PURPOSE: To correlate the dimension of the visual field (VF) tested by Goldman kinetic perimetry with the extent of visibility of the highly reflective layer between inner and outer segments of photoreceptors (IOS) seen in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images in patients with retinitis pigmentosa (RP). METHODS: In a retrospectively designed cross-sectional study, 18 eyes of 18 patients with RP were examined with OCT and Goldmann perimetry using test target I4e and compared with 18 eyes of 18 control subjects. A-scans of raw scan data of Stratus OCT images (Carl Zeiss Meditec, AG, Oberkochen, Germany) were quantitatively analyzed for the presence of the signal generated by the highly reflective layer between the IOS in OCT images. Starting in the fovea, the distance to which this signal was detectable was measured. Visual fields were analyzed by measuring the distance from the center point to isopter I4e. OCT and visual field data were analyzed in a clockwise fashion every 30 degrees , and corresponding measures were correlated. RESULTS: In corresponding alignments, the distance from the center point to isopter I4e and the distance to which the highly reflective signal from the IOS can be detected correlate significantly (r = 0.75, P < 0.0001). The greater the distance in VF, the greater the distance measured in OCT. CONCLUSIONS: The authors hypothesize that the retinal structure from which the highly reflective layer between the IOS emanates is of critical importance for visual and photoreceptor function. Further research is warranted to determine whether this may be useful as an objective marker of progression of retinal degeneration in patients with RP.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.