Methodological issues in quantifying the magnitude of the tuberculosis problem in a prison population

SETTING: Correctional settings and remand prisons. OBJECTIVE: To critically discuss calculations for epidemiological indicators of the tuberculosis (TB) burden in prisons and to provide recommendations to improve study comparability. METHODS: A hypothetical data set illustrates issues in determining incidence and prevalence. The appropriate calculation of the incidence rate is presented and problems arising from cross-sectional surveys are clarifi ed. RESULTS: Cases recognized during the fi rst 3 months should be classifi ed as prevalent at entry and excluded from any incidence rate calculation. The numerator for the incidence rate includes persons detected as having developed TB during a specifi ed period of time subsequent to the initial 3 months. The denominator is persontime at risk from 3 months onward to the end point (TB or end of the observation period). Preferably, entry time, exit time and event time are known for each inmate to determine person-time at risk. Failing that, an approximation consists of the sum of monthly head counts, excluding prevalent cases and those persons no longer at risk from both the numerator and the denominator. CONCLUSIONS: The varying durations of inmate incarceration in prisons pose challenges for quantifying the magnitude of the TB problem in the inmate population. Recommendations are made to measure incidence and prevalence.

Low bone mass in idiopathic renal stone formers: magnitude and significance

To assess bone mineral density (BMD) in idiopathic calcium nephrolithiasis, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry was performed at lumbar spine, upper femur (femoral neck, Ward's triangle, and total area), distal tibial diaphysis, and distal tibial epiphysis in 110 male idiopathic calcium stone formers (ICSF); 49 with and 61 without hypercalciuria on free-choice diet). Results were compared with those obtained in 234 healthy male controls, using (1) noncorrected BMD, (2) BMD corrected for age, height, and BMI, and (3) a skeletal score based on a tercile distribution of BMD values at following four sites: lumbar spine, Ward's triangle, tibial diaphysis, and tibial epiphysis. After correction, BMD--and therefore also skeletal score--tended to be lower in the stone formers than in controls at five of the six measurement sites, that is, lumbar spine, upper femur, Ward's triangle, tibial diaphysis, and tibial epiphysis, limit of significance being reached for the last two sites without difference between hypercalciuric (HCSF) and normocalciuric stone formers (NCSF). Estimated current daily calcium intake was significantly lower in patients (616 +/- 499 mg/24 h, mean +/- SEM) than in controls (773 +/- 532, p = 0.02). Of 17 patients who in the past had received a low-calcium diet for at least 1 year, 10 had a low skeletal score (4-6) whereas only 1 had a high score (10-12; p = 0.037). Of the 12 stone formers in the study with skeletal score 4 (i.e., the lowest), 8 had experienced in the past one or more fractures of any kind versus only 19 of the remaining 77 patients with skeletal score 5-12 (p = 0.01).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Polarity correspondence in comparative number magnitude judgments

When asked which of two digits is greater, participants respond more quickly if physical size corresponds to number magnitude, such as in 3 7, than when the two attributes contradict each other, such as in 3 7. This size congruence effect in comparative number judgments is a well-documented phenomenon. We extended existing findings by showing that this effect does not depend on physical size of the number alone but can be observed with number symmetry. In addition, we observed that symmetric numbers are judged as being smaller than asymmetric numbers, which renders an interpretation of the number symmetry congruence effect in terms of physical size implausible. We refer to the polarity correspondence principle (Proctor & Cho, 2006) to explain the present findings.

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Expanding the cone location and magnitude index to include corneal thickness and posterior surface information for the detection of keratoconus

PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.

Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards

In natural hazard research, risk is defined as a function of (1) the probability of occurrence of a hazardous process, and (2) the assessment of the related extent of damage, defined by the value of elements at risk exposed and their physical vulnerability. Until now, various works have been undertaken to determine vulnerability values for objects exposed to geomorphic hazards such as mountain torrents. Yet, many studies only provide rough estimates for vulnerability values based on proxies for process intensities. However, the deduced vulnerability functions proposed in the literature show a wide range, in particular with respect to medium and high process magnitudes. In our study, we compare vulnerability functions for torrent processes derived from studies in test sites located in the Austrian Alps and in Taiwan. Based on this comparison we expose needs for future research in order to enhance mountain hazard risk management with a particular focus on the question of vulnerability on a catchment scale.