The shock index and the simplified PESI for identification of low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

We compared the test characteristics of the shock index (SI) and the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) for predicting 30-day outcomes in a cohort of 1,206 patients with objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism (PE). The primary outcome of the study was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was nonfatal symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) or nonfatal major bleeding. Overall, 119 (9.9%) out of 1,206 patients died (95% CI 8.2-11.5%) during the first month of follow-up. The sPESI classified fewer patients as low-risk (369 (31%) out of 1,206 patients, 95% CI 28-33%) compared to the SI (1,024 (85%) out of 1,206 patients, 95% CI 83-87%) (p<0.001). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a lower 30-day mortality than those based on the SI (1.6% (95% CI 0.3-2.9%) versus 8.3% (95% CI 6.6-10.0%)), while the 30-day rate of nonfatal recurrent VTE or major bleeding was similar (2.2% (95%CI 0.7-3.6%) versus 3.3% (95%CI 2.2-4.4%)). The net reclassification improvement with the sPESI was 13.4% (p = 0.07). The integrated discrimination improvement was estimated as 1.8% (p<0.001). The sPESI quantified the prognosis of patients with PE better than the SI.

Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

First-day step-down to oral outpatient treatment versus continued standard treatment in children with cancer and low-risk fever in neutropenia. A randomized controlled trial within the multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

The standard treatment of fever in chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (FN) includes emergency hospitalization and empirical intravenous antimicrobial therapy. This study determined if first-day step-down to oral outpatient treatment is not inferior to continued standard regarding safety and efficacy in children with low-risk FN.

Advances in management of low-risk febrile neutropenia

To describe and discuss the most recent advances in the management of low-risk febrile neutropenia in children with cancer.

Added value of coronary artery calcium score as an adjunct to gated SPECT for the evaluation of coronary artery disease in an intermediate-risk population

The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a readily and widely available tool for the noninvasive diagnosis of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to investigate the added value of the CAC score as an adjunct to gated SPECT for the assessment of CAD in an intermediate-risk population. METHODS: Seventy-seven prospectively recruited patients with intermediate risk (as determined by the Framingham Heart Study 10-y CAD risk score) and referred for coronary angiography because of suspected CAD underwent stress (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and CT CAC scoring within 2 wk before coronary angiography. The sensitivity and specificity of SPECT alone and of the combination of the 2 methods (SPECT plus CAC score) in demonstrating significant CAD (>/=50% stenosis on coronary angiography) were compared. RESULTS: Forty-two (55%) of the 77 patients had CAD on coronary angiography, and 35 (45%) had abnormal SPECT results. The CAC score was significantly higher in subjects with perfusion abnormalities than in those who had normal SPECT results (889 +/- 836 [mean +/- SD] vs. 286 +/- 335; P < 0.0001). Similarly, with rising CAC scores, a larger percentage of patients had CAD. Receiver-operating-characteristic analysis showed that a CAC score of greater than or equal to 709 was the optimal cutoff for detecting CAD missed by SPECT. SPECT alone had a sensitivity and a specificity for the detection of significant CAD of 76% and 91%, respectively. Combining SPECT with the CAC score (at a cutoff of 709) improved the sensitivity of SPECT (from 76% to 86%) for the detection of CAD, in association with a nonsignificant decrease in specificity (from 91% to 86%). CONCLUSION: The CAC score may offer incremental diagnostic information over SPECT data for identifying patients with significant CAD and negative MPI results.

Matched-pair analysis of endovascular versus open surgical repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in young patients at low risk

PURPOSE: To compare clinical outcomes of endovascular and open aortic repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in young patients at low risk. It was hypothesized that endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compares favorably with open aneurysm repair (OAR) in these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five patients aged 65 years or younger with a low perioperative surgical risk profile underwent EVAR at a single institution between April 1994 and May 2007 (23 men; mean age, 62 years+/-2.8). A sex- and risk-matched control group of 25 consecutive patients aged 65 years or younger who underwent OAR was used as a control group (23 men; mean age, 59 years+/-3.9). Patient outcomes and complications were classified according to Society of Vascular Surgery/International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery reporting standards. RESULTS: Mean follow-up times were 7.1 years+/-3.2 after EVAR and 5.9 years+/-1.8 after OAR (P=.1020). Total complication rates were 20% after EVAR and 52% after OAR (P=.0378), and all complications were mild or moderate. Mean intensive care unit times were 0.2 days+/-0.4 after EVAR and 1.1 days+/-0.4 after OAR (P<.0001) and mean lengths of hospital stay were 2.3 days+/-1.0 after EVAR and 5.0 days+/-2.1 after OAR (P<.0001). Cumulative rates of long-term patient survival did not differ between EVAR and OAR (P=.144). No AAA-related deaths or aortoiliac ruptures occurred during follow-up for EVAR and OAR. In addition, no surgical conversions were necessary in EVAR recipients. Cumulative rates of freedom from secondary procedures were not significantly different between the EVAR and OAR groups (P=.418). Within a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis adjusted for patient age, maximum AAA diameter, and cardiac risk score, all-cause mortality rates (odds ratio [OR], 0.125; 95% CI, 0.010-1.493; P=.100) and need for secondary procedures (OR, 5.014; 95% CI, 0.325-77.410; P=.537) were not different between EVAR and OAR. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this observational study indicate that EVAR offers a favorable alternative to OAR in young patients at low risk.

Performance of Interleukin-6 and Interleukin-8 serum levels in pediatric oncology patients with neutropenia and fever for the assessment of low-risk

BACKGROUND: Patients with chemotherapy-related neutropenia and fever are usually hospitalized and treated on empirical intravenous broad-spectrum antibiotic regimens. Early diagnosis of sepsis in children with febrile neutropenia remains difficult due to non-specific clinical and laboratory signs of infection. We aimed to analyze whether IL-6 and IL-8 could define a group of patients at low risk of septicemia. METHODS: A prospective study was performed to assess the potential value of IL-6, IL-8 and C-reactive protein serum levels to predict severe bacterial infection or bacteremia in febrile neutropenic children with cancer during chemotherapy. Statistical test used: Friedman test, Wilcoxon-Test, Kruskal-Wallis H test, Mann-Whitney U-Test and Receiver Operating Characteristics. RESULTS: The analysis of cytokine levels measured at the onset of fever indicated that IL-6 and IL-8 are useful to define a possible group of patients with low risk of sepsis. In predicting bacteremia or severe bacterial infection, IL-6 was the best predictor with the optimum IL-6 cut-off level of 42 pg/ml showing a high sensitivity (90%) and specificity (85%). CONCLUSION: These findings may have clinical implications for risk-based antimicrobial treatment strategies.

Low Risk of Death, but Substantial Program Attrition, in Pediatric HIV Treatment Cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: To date, an estimated 10% of children eligible for antiretroviral treatment (ART) receive it, and the frequency of retention in programs is unknown. We evaluated the 2-year risks of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of children after ART initiation in a multicenter study in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from 16 participating clinics produced overall Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probabilities of death or LTFU after ART initiation. Risk factors analysis used Weibull regression, accounting for between-cohort heterogeneity. RESULTS: The median age of 2405 children at ART initiation was 4.9 years (12%, younger than 12 months), 52% were male, 70% had severe immunodeficiency, and 59% started ART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. The 2-year risk of death after ART initiation was 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9 to 8.1), independently associated with baseline severe anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 4.10 [CI: 2.36 to 7.13]), immunodeficiency (adjusted aHR: 2.95 [CI: 1.49 to 5.82]), and severe clinical status (adjusted aHR: 3.64 [CI: 1.95 to 6.81]); the 2-year risk of LTFU was 10.3% (CI: 8.9 to 11.9), higher in children with severe clinical status. CONCLUSIONS: Once on treatment, the 2-year risk of death is low but the LTFU risk is substantial. ART is still mainly initiated at advanced disease stage in African children, reinforcing the need for early HIV diagnosis, early initiation of ART, and procedures to increase program retention.

5-year results of accelerated partial breast irradiation using sole interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy versus whole-breast irradiation with boost after breast-conserving surgery for low-risk invasive and in-situ carcinoma of the female breast: a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND In a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial, accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) for patients with stage 0, I, and IIA breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving treatment was compared with whole-breast irradiation. Here, we present 5-year follow-up results. METHODS We did a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial at 16 hospitals and medical centres in seven European countries. 1184 patients with low-risk invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ treated with breast-conserving surgery were centrally randomised to either whole-breast irradiation or APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy. The primary endpoint was local recurrence. Analysis was done according to treatment received. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00402519. FINDINGS Between April 20, 2004, and July 30, 2009, 551 patients had whole-breast irradiation with tumour-bed boost and 633 patients received APBI using interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy. At 5-year follow-up, nine patients treated with APBI and five patients receiving whole-breast irradiation had a local recurrence; the cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 1·44% (95% CI 0·51-2·38) with APBI and 0·92% (0·12-1·73) with whole-breast irradiation (difference 0·52%, 95% CI -0·72 to 1·75; p=0·42). No grade 4 late side-effects were reported. The 5-year risk of grade 2-3 late side-effects to the skin was 3·2% with APBI versus 5·7% with whole-breast irradiation (p=0·08), and 5-year risk of grade 2-3 subcutaneous tissue late side-effects was 7·6% versus 6·3% (p=0·53). The risk of severe (grade 3) fibrosis at 5 years was 0·2% with whole-breast irradiation and 0% with APBI (p=0·46). INTERPRETATION The difference between treatments was below the relevance margin of 3 percentage points. Therefore, adjuvant APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy after breast-conserving surgery in patients with early breast cancer is not inferior to adjuvant whole-breast irradiation with respect to 5-year local control, disease-free survival, and overall survival. FUNDING German Cancer Aid.

How to avoid venous thromboembolism in women at increased risk--with special focus on low-risk periods

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of mortality during Western women's fertile life. Although half of thromboembolic events occur during times of low-risk situations, almost all our knowledge is focused on medical thromboprophylaxis during high-risk situations. Thus, since we only use medical thromboprophylaxis at high-risk periods, lifestyle advice could be an attractive complement both during high- and low-risk situations. The knowledge of how lifestyle factors affect VTE risk has grown in recent years, and women at high risk are often highly motivated to make changes in order to reduce their risk. This review is focused on modifiable risk factors for VTE and advice that may be given to women at increased risk of VTE.

Clinical outcomes of patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AimsTranscatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an established treatment alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement in high-risk and inoperable patients and outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate risk remain to be determined. The aim of this study was to assess clinical outcomes among patients with estimated low or intermediate surgical risk undergoing TAVI.Methods and resultsBetween August 2007 and October 2011, 389 consecutive patients underwent TAVI and were categorized according to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score into low (STS < 3%; n = 41, 10.5%), intermediate (STS ≥3% and ≤8%, n = 254, 65.3%), and high-risk (STS > 8%; n = 94, 24.2%) groups for the purpose of this study. Significant differences were found between the groups (low risk vs. intermediate risk vs. high risk) for age (78.2 ± 6.7 vs. 82.7 ± 5.7 vs. 83.7 ± 4.9, P < 0.001), body mass index (28.1 ± 6.1 vs. 26.5 ± 4.9 vs. 24.4 ± 4.6, P < 0.001), chronic renal failure (34 vs. 67 vs. 90%, P < 0.001), all-cause mortality at 30 days (2.4 vs. 3.9 vs. 14.9%, P = 0.001), and all-cause mortality at 1 year (10.1 vs. 16.1 vs. 34.5%, P = 0.0003). No differences were observed with regards to cerebrovascular accidents and myocardial infarction during 1-year follow-up.ConclusionIn contemporary practice, TAVI is not limited to inoperable or STS-defined high-risk patients and should be guided by the decision of an interdisciplinary Heart Team. Compared with patients at calculated high risk, well-selected patients with STS-defined intermediate or low risk appear to have favourable clinical outcomes.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Low Yield of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Screening in Hemodialysis Patients: 10 Years' Experience

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasal colonization in hemodialysis patients and to analyze the cost-effectiveness of our screening approach compared with an alternative strategy. DESIGN Screening study and cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS Analysis of twice-yearly MRSA prevalence studies conducted in the hemodialysis unit of a 950-bed tertiary care hospital from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013. For this purpose, nasal swab samples were cultured on MRSA screening agar (mannitol-oxacillin biplate). RESULTS There were 20 mass screenings during the 10-year study period. We identified 415 patients participating in at least 1 screening, with an average of 4.5 screenings per patient. Of 415 screened patients, 15 (3.6%) were found to be MRSA carriers. The first mass screening in 2004 yielded the highest percentage of MRSA (6/101 [6%]). Only 7 subsequent screenings revealed new MRSA carriers, whereas 4 screenings confirmed previously known carriers, and 8 remained negative. None of the carriers developed MRSA bacteremia during the study period. The total cost of our screening approach, that is, screening and isolation costs, was US $93,930. The total cost of an alternative strategy (ie, no mass screening administered) would be equivalent to costs of isolation of index cases and contact tracing was estimated to be US $5,382 (difference, US $88,548). CONCLUSIONS In an area of low MRSA endemicity (<5%), regular nasal screenings of a high-risk population yielded a low rate of MRSA carriers. Twice-yearly MRSA screening of dialysis patients is unlikely to be cost-effective if MRSA prevalence is low. Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 2015;00(0):1-4.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.