Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

Effect sizes and standardization in neighbourhood models of forest stands: potential biases and misinterpretations

Effects of conspecific neighbours on survival and growth of trees have been found to be related to species abundance. Both positive and negative relationships may explain observed abundance patterns. Surprisingly, it is rarely tested whether such relationships could be biased or even spurious due to transforming neighbourhood variables or influences of spatial aggregation, distance decay of neighbour effects and standardization of effect sizes. To investigate potential biases, communities of 20 identical species were simulated with log-series abundances but without species-specific interactions. No relationship of conspecific neighbour effects on survival or growth with species abundance was expected. Survival and growth of individuals was simulated in random and aggregated spatial patterns using no, linear, or squared distance decay of neighbour effects. Regression coefficients of statistical neighbourhood models were unbiased and unrelated to species abundance. However, variation in the number of conspecific neighbours was positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformations of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Consequently, effect sizes and standardized regression coefficients, often used in model fitting across large numbers of species, were also positively or negatively related to species abundance depending on transformation of neighbourhood variables, spatial pattern and distance decay. Tests using randomized tree positions and identities provide the best benchmarks by which to critically evaluate relationships of effect sizes or standardized regression coefficients with tree species abundance. This will better guard against potential misinterpretations.

Impact of long-term corticosteroid therapy on the distribution pattern of lower limb atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE: Ectopic calcification and mediacalcinosis can be promoted by corticosteroid use. Aim of the present investigation is to describe macrovascular disease features in patients with long-term corticosteroid therapy and symptomatic lower limb peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD). METHODS: A consecutive series of 2783 patients undergoing clinical and angiographic work-up of PAD were screened for long-term (>5 years) corticosteroid use (group A). Comparison was performed to a randomly selected age-, sex- and risk factor-matched PAD control cohort from the same series without corticosteroid use (group B). Patients with diabetes mellitus or severe renal failure were excluded. Arterial calcification was evaluated by qualitative assessment on radiographic images. Severity of atherosclerotic lesions was analysed from angiographic images using a semi-quantitative score (Bollinger score). RESULTS: In general, 12 patients (5 males, mean age 78.5 +/- 9.0 years) with 15 ischaemic limbs qualified to be enrolled in group A and were compared to 23 matching control patients (6 2 males, mean age 79.5 +/- 6 years) with 32 ischaemic limbs. Incompressibility of ankle arteries determined by measurement of the ankle-brachial index was seen in 12 limbs (80%) in group A compared to 3 limbs (9%) in group B (p = 0.0009). No significant difference was found comparing group A and B for segmental calcification, whereas comparison of the atherosclerotic burden using the angiographic severity score showed a significantly higher score at the infragenicular arterial level in group A (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that the long-term corticosteroid therapy is associated with a distally accentuated, calcifying peripheral atherosclerosis inducing arterial incompressibility. This occlusion pattern is comparable to patients with renal failure or diabetes. Further research is required to support our observations.

Renal insufficiency is independently associated with a distal distribution pattern of symptomatic lower-limb atherosclerosis

Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of renal insufficiency (RI) on the distribution pattern of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). We hypothesised that RI is associated with a distally accentuated involvement of the peripheral arterial tree. Design This is a retrospective analysis. Materials and Methods Analysis was based on a consecutive series of 2709 patients with chronic PAD of atherosclerotic origin undergoing primary endovascular treatment of lower-extremity arteries. Atherosclerotic pattern was grouped into femoropopliteal (n = 2085) and infragenicular (n = 892) disease according to target lesions treated while using iliac disease (n = 1133) as reference. Univariable and multivariable multinomial regression analyses were performed to assess relation with RI. Results are shown as relative risk ratio (RRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RI was defined as glomerular filtration rate (GFR) < 60 ml min−1 1.73 m−2. Results Presence of RI was an independent risk factor for a centrifugal lesion pattern (RRR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.17–1.86, p = 0.001). Moreover, a decrease in GFR by 10 ml min−1 1.73 m−2 was associated with an RRR of 1.08 for below-the-knee arterial disease (95% CI: 1.03–1.13, p = 0.003). Conclusion Presence and severity of RI are independent predictors of a distal obstructive pattern in patients with symptomatic PAD.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Distribution pattern of infrageniculate arterial obstructions in patients with diabetes mellitus and renal insufficiency - implications for revascularization

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and renal insufficiency (RI) were shown to be associated with an obstructive lesion pattern favouring distal lower limb arterial segments in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). We hypothesized that presence of DM is associated with pronounced involvement of the tibioperoneal arteries, whereas RI predominantly affects the pedal arch. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of PAD patients (mean age 75 +/- 10 years, 40 women) with RI alone (n = 15), RI and DM (n = 25), DM alone (n = 25) and without RI or DM (n = 25) underwent diagnostic angiography. We analyzed the obstructive burden of different segments of the infrageniculate arterial tree using the Bollinger score as well as accessibility of pedal arteries for bypass surgery. RESULTS: In patients with DM and in patients with RI the mean total obstructive burden was higher in pedal as compared to tibioperoneal arteries (9.79 +/- 4.60 vs. 6.99 +/- 3.45, p = 0.03;10.50 +/- 5.53 vs. 6.88 +/- 4.12, p = 0.05, respectively). However, rates of patency of at least one pedal artery were significantly lower in patients with RI and RI/DM as compared to controls (47% and 48% vs. 80%, respectively; p = 0.007), whereas patency was comparable between patients with diabetes alone and controls (72% vs. 80%, ns). Rates of viability of pedal arteries as an attachment site for distal bypass was 80%, 68%, 47% and 44% in controls, patients with DM alone, RI alone and RI/DM, respectively (p = 0.0042). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous anecdotal observations, both DM and RI are associated with a high atherosclerotic burden of the pedal arch in the present angiographic series. The presence of RI, however, is associated with a lower patency of the pedal arch as compared to the presence of DM alone, and more than fifty percent patients are unsuitable for distal bypass grafting.

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Mapping material distribution in a heterogeneous sand tank by image analysis

Water flow and solute transport through soils are strongly influenced by the spatial arrangement of soil materials with different hydraulic and chemical properties. Knowing the specific or statistical arrangement of these materials is considered as a key toward improved predictions of solute transport. Our aim was to obtain two-dimensional material maps from photographs of exposed profiles. We developed a segmentation and classification procedure and applied it to the images of a very heterogeneous sand tank, which was used for a series of flow and transport experiments. The segmentation was based on thresholds of soil color, estimated from local median gray values, and of soil texture, estimated from local coefficients of variation of gray values. Important steps were the correction of inhomogeneous illumination and reflection, and the incorporation of prior knowledge in filters used to extract the image features and to smooth the results morphologically. We could check and confirm the success of our mapping by comparing the estimated with the designed sand distribution in the tank. The resulting material map was used later as input to model flow and transport through the sand tank. Similar segmentation procedures may be applied to any high-density raster data, including photographs or spectral scans of field profiles.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Oral syphilis: a series of 5 cases.

Syphilis is an infectious, usually sexually transmitted, disease caused by Treponema pallidum, subspecies pallidum. Because of the increasing prevalence in Europe during the past few years, dentists could be confronted with patients with oral manifestations of syphilis. Because oral lesions are highly contagious, it is vital to make the correct diagnosis quickly to initiate the proper therapy and to interrupt the chain of infection. We present the cases of 5 patients with syphilis-related oral lesions. These cases are representative because of their clinical presentation, age, and gender distribution and the diagnostic approach. The aim of the present report is to emphasize the importance of the dentist knowing and identifying syphilis in different stages to diagnose the disease and institute treatment at an early stage.

Impact of synchronous metastasis distribution on cancer specific survival in renal cell carcinoma after radical nephrectomy with tumor thrombectomy

PURPOSE Metastatic renal cell carcinoma can be clinically diverse in terms of the pattern of metastatic disease and response to treatment. We studied the impact of metastasis and location on cancer specific survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS The records of 2,017 patients with renal cell cancer and tumor thrombus who underwent radical nephrectomy and tumor thrombectomy from 1971 to 2012 at 22 centers in the United States and Europe were analyzed. Number and location of synchronous metastases were compared with respect to patient cancer specific survival. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to quantify the impact of covariates. RESULTS Lymph node metastasis (155) or distant metastasis (725) was present in 880 (44%) patients. Of the patients with distant disease 385 (53%) had an isolated metastasis. The 5-year cancer specific survival was 51.3% (95% CI 48.6-53.9) for the entire group. On univariable analysis patients with isolated lymph node metastasis had a significantly worse cancer specific survival than those with a solitary distant metastasis. The location of distant metastasis did not have any significant effect on cancer specific survival. On multivariable analysis the presence of lymph node metastasis, isolated distant metastasis and multiple distant metastases were independently associated with cancer specific survival. Moreover higher tumor thrombus level, papillary histology and the use of postoperative systemic therapy were independently associated with worse cancer specific survival. CONCLUSIONS In our multi-institutional series of patients with renal cell cancer who underwent radical nephrectomy and tumor thrombectomy, almost half of the patients had synchronous lymph node or distant organ metastasis. Survival was superior in patients with solitary distant metastasis compared to isolated lymph node disease.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.