Model-based control of neuromuscular block using mivacurium: design and clinical verification

BACKGROUND: Short-acting agents for neuromuscular block (NMB) require frequent dosing adjustments for individual patient's needs. In this study, we verified a new closed-loop controller for mivacurium dosing in clinical trials. METHODS: Fifteen patients were studied. T1% measured with electromyography was used as input signal for the model-based controller. After induction of propofol/opiate anaesthesia, stabilization of baseline electromyography signal was awaited and a bolus of 0.3 mg kg-1 mivacurium was then administered to facilitate endotracheal intubation. Closed-loop infusion was started thereafter, targeting a neuromuscular block of 90%. Setpoint deviation, the number of manual interventions and surgeon's complaints were recorded. Drug use and its variability between and within patients were evaluated. RESULTS: Median time of closed-loop control for the 11 patients included in the data processing was 135 [89-336] min (median [range]). Four patients had to be excluded because of sensor problems. Mean absolute deviation from setpoint was 1.8 +/- 0.9 T1%. Neither manual interventions nor complaints from the surgeons were recorded. Mean necessary mivacurium infusion rate was 7.0 +/- 2.2 microg kg-1 min-1. Intrapatient variability of mean infusion rates over 30-min interval showed high differences up to a factor of 1.8 between highest and lowest requirement in the same patient. CONCLUSIONS: Neuromuscular block can precisely be controlled with mivacurium using our model-based controller. The amount of mivacurium needed to maintain T1% at defined constant levels differed largely between and within patients. Closed-loop control seems therefore advantageous to automatically maintain neuromuscular block at constant levels.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Wavelet-denoising of electroencephalogram and the absolute slope method: a new tool to improve electroencephalographic localization and lateralization

OBJECTIVE: In ictal scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) the presence of artefacts and the wide ranging patterns of discharges are hurdles to good diagnostic accuracy. Quantitative EEG aids the lateralization and/or localization process of epileptiform activity. METHODS: Twelve patients achieving Engel Class I/IIa outcome following temporal lobe surgery (1 year) were selected with approximately 1-3 ictal EEGs analyzed/patient. The EEG signals were denoised with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), followed by computing the normalized absolute slopes and spatial interpolation of scalp topography associated to detection of local maxima. For localization, the region with the highest normalized absolute slopes at the time when epileptiform activities were registered (>2.5 times standard deviation) was designated as the region of onset. For lateralization, the cerebral hemisphere registering the first appearance of normalized absolute slopes >2.5 times the standard deviation was designated as the side of onset. As comparison, all the EEG episodes were reviewed by two neurologists blinded to clinical information to determine the localization and lateralization of seizure onset by visual analysis. RESULTS: 16/25 seizures (64%) were correctly localized by the visual method and 21/25 seizures (84%) by the quantitative EEG method. 12/25 seizures (48%) were correctly lateralized by the visual method and 23/25 seizures (92%) by the quantitative EEG method. The McNemar test showed p=0.15 for localization and p=0.0026 for lateralization when comparing the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative EEG method yielded significantly more seizure episodes that were correctly lateralized and there was a trend towards more correctly localized seizures. SIGNIFICANCE: Coupling DWT with the absolute slope method helps clinicians achieve a better EEG diagnostic accuracy.

Right ventricular systolic function and cardiac resynchronization therapy

AIMS: The effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) has not been well studied. Furthermore, it is unclear whether baseline RVEF influences response to CRT. To evaluate the acute and chronic effects of CRT on right ventricular systolic function, and to investigate whether baseline RVEF impacts response to CRT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty-four patients with a standard indication for CRT underwent radionuclide angiography at baseline and after at least 6 months' follow-up for measuring RVEF, right ventricular synchrony (using phase analysis), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). In addition, NYHA functional class and 6-min walking distance (6MWD) were evaluated. There were no significant acute changes in RVEF with CRT. After a mean follow-up of 9 +/- 5 months, RVEF was slightly improved (by 1.9 +/- 5.0% in absolute terms, P = 0.016), and to a lesser extent than LVEF (5.1 +/- 9.0%, P = 0.009 compared with RVEF). Right ventricular dyssynchrony was significantly improved at follow-up (P = 0.016). Patients with a baseline RVEF < or = 0.35 (n = 19) were less likely to improve in NYHA class (P = 0.016), and also tended to improve less in 6MWD and LVEF (P < 0.06). CONCLUSION: Cardiac resynchronization therapy has no acute effect on RVEF, and only slightly improves RVEF at follow-up. Patients with reduced RVEF at baseline were less likely to respond to CRT, indicating that right ventricular systolic dysfunction may play a role in patient selection.

Right ventricular absolute myocardial blood flow in complex congenital heart disease

A consequence in patients with d-transposition of the great arteries (d-TGA) and tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH) and right ventricular failure. Myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) permits the determination of the myocardial microvascular density reflected by the relative myocardial blood volume (rBV; ml/ml). This study was conducted to elucidate the relationship between RVH and myocardial microvascular changes by quantitative MCE in patients with d-TGA and TOF.

Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Deviation from Murray's law is associated with a higher degree of calcification in coronary bifurcations

Murray's law describes the optimal branching anatomy of vascular bifurcations. If Murray's law is obeyed, shear stress is constant over the bifurcation. Associations between Murray's law and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) assessed plaque composition near coronary bifurcations have not been investigated previously.