On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

Microcirculatory parameters after isotonic and hypertonic colloidal fluid resuscitation in acute hemorrhagic shock

BACKGROUND: Volume resuscitation is one of the primary therapeutic goals in hemorrhagic shock, but data on microcirculatory effects of different colloidal fluid resuscitation regimen are sparse. We investigated sublingual mucosal microcirculatory parameters during hemorrhage and after fluid resuscitation with gelatin, hydroxyethyl starch, or hypertonic saline and hydroxyethyl starch in pigs. METHODS: To induce hemorrhagic shock, 60% of calculated blood volume was withdrawn. Microvascular blood flow was assessed by laser Doppler velocimetry. Microcirculatory hemoglobin oxygen saturation was measured with a tissue reflectance spectrophotometry, and side darkfield imaging was used to visualize the microcirculation and to quantify the flow quality. Systemic hemodynamic variables, systemic acid base and blood gas variables, and lactate measurements were recorded. Measurements were performed at baseline, after hemorrhage, and after fluid resuscitation with a fixed volume regimen. RESULTS: Systemic hemodynamic parameters returned or even exceeded to baseline values in all three groups after fluid resuscitation, but showed significantly higher filling pressures and cardiac output values in animals treated with isotonic colloids. Microcirculatory parameters determined in gelatin and hydroxyethyl starch resuscitated animals, and almost all parameters except microvascular hemoglobin oxygen saturation in animals treated with hypertonic saline and hydroxyethyl starch, were restored after treatment. DISCUSSION: Hemorrhaged pigs can be hemodynamically stabilized with either isotonic or hypertonic colloidal fluids. The main finding is an adequate restoration of sublingual microcirculatory blood flow and flow quality in all three study groups, but only gelatin and hydroxyethyl starch improved microvascular hemoglobin oxygen saturation, indicating some inadequate oxygen supply/demand ratio maybe due to a better restoration of systemic hemodynamics in isotonic colloidal resuscitated animals.

Stochastic search for semiparametric linear regression models

This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.