Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Vibronic Spectra of Jet-Cooled 2-Aminopurine center dot H2O Clusters Studied by UV Resonant Two-Photon Ionization Spectroscopy and Quantum Chemical Calculations

For understanding the major- and minor-groove hydration patterns of DNAs and RNAs, it is important to understand the local solvation of individual nucleobases at the molecular level. We have investigated the 2-aminopurine center dot H2O. monohydrate by two-color resonant two-photon ionization and UV/UV hole-burning spectroscopies, which reveal two isomers, denoted A and B. The electronic spectral shift delta nu of the S-1 <- S-0 transition relative to bare 9H-2-aminopurine (9H-2AP) is small for isomer A (-70 cm(-1)), while that of isomer B is much larger (delta nu = 889 cm(-1)). B3LYP geometry optimizations with the TZVP basis set predict four cluster isomers, of which three are doubly H-bonded, with H2O acting as an acceptor to a N-H or -NH2 group and as a donor to either of the pyrimidine N sites. The "sugar-edge" isomer A is calculated to be the most stable form with binding energy D-e = 56.4 kJ/mol. Isomers B and C are H-bonded between the -NH2 group and pyrimidine moieties and are 2.5 and 6.9 kJ/mol less stable, respectively. Time-dependent (TD) B3LYP/TZVP calculations predict the adiabatic energies of the lowest (1)pi pi* states of A and B in excellent agreement with the observed 0(0)(0) bands; also, the relative intensities of the A and B origin bands agree well with the calculated S-0 state relative energies. This allows unequivocal identification of the isomers. The R2PI spectra of 9H-2AP and of isomer A exhibit intense low-frequency out-of-plane overtone and combination bands, which is interpreted as a coupling of the optically excited (1)pi pi* state to the lower-lying (1)n pi* dark state. In contrast, these overtone and combination bands are much weaker for isomer B, implying that the (1)pi pi* state of B is planar and decoupled from the (1)n pi* state. These observations agree with the calculations, which predict the (1)n pi* above the (1)pi pi* state for isomer B but below the (1)pi pi* for both 9H-2AP and isomer A.

Insular volume abnormalities associated with different transition probabilities to psychosis

Background Although individuals vulnerable to psychosis show brain volumetric abnormalities, structural alterations underlying different probabilities for later transition are unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of voxel-based morphometry (VBM). Method We investigated grey matter volume (GMV) abnormalities by comparing four neuroleptic-free groups: individuals with first episode of psychosis (FEP) and with at-risk mental state (ARMS), with either long-term (ARMS-LT) or short-term ARMS (ARMS-ST), compared to the healthy control (HC) group. Using three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), we examined 16 FEP, 31 ARMS, clinically followed up for on average 3 months (ARMS-ST, n=18) and 4.5 years (ARMS-LT, n=13), and 19 HC. Results The ARMS-ST group showed less GMV in the right and left insula compared to the ARMS-LT (Cohen's d 1.67) and FEP groups (Cohen's d 1.81) respectively. These GMV differences were correlated positively with global functioning in the whole ARMS group. Insular alterations were associated with negative symptomatology in the whole ARMS group, and also with hallucinations in the ARMS-ST and ARMS-LT subgroups. We found a significant effect of previous antipsychotic medication use on GMV abnormalities in the FEP group. Conclusions GMV abnormalities in subjects at high clinical risk for psychosis are associated with negative and positive psychotic symptoms, and global functioning. Alterations in the right insula are associated with a higher risk for transition to psychosis, and thus may be related to different transition probabilities.

Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women

SUMMARY: Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model. INTRODUCTION: Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland. METHODS: Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures. RESULTS: Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men. CONCLUSION: This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.