Neurological outcome, working capacity and prognostic factors of patients with SCIWORA

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case review. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, the neurological outcome, retirement and prognostic factors of patients with spinal cord injury without radiographic abnormality (SCIWORA) were evaluated. SETTING: Swiss national work accident insurance database. METHODS: The medical histories of 32 patients who were insured by the Swiss Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA) and had SCIWORA between 1995 and 2004 were evaluated thoroughly. Moreover, all available magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were evaluated. RESULTS: At the last follow-up, none of the patients had complete spinal cord injury, only 4 patients had severe deficits and 12 patients had normal motor and sensory function in the neurological examination. However, only 7 out of 32 patients had returned to full-time work and 10 out of 32 patients were fully retired. Both the presence of spinal cord change (ρ=0.51) and higher maximum spinal cord compression (ρ=0.57) in MRI scan correlated with the likelihood for retirement; older age (ρ=0.38) and physical load of work (ρ=0.4) correlated with retirement to a lesser extent. CONCLUSION: Although the neurological outcome of SCIWORA is mostly good, the retirement rate is high. Presence of spinal cord change and severity of cord compression are the best predictors for the degree of retirement.

Risk adjustment in aging societies

Background In Switzerland, age is the predominant driver of solidarity transfers in risk adjustment (RA). Concerns have been voiced regarding growing imbalances in cost sharing between young and old insured due to demographic changes (larger fraction of elderly >65 years and rise in average age). Particularly young adults aged 19–25 with limited incomes have to shoulder increasing solidarity burdens. Between 1996 and 2011, monthly intergenerational solidarity payments for young adults have doubled from CHF 87 to CHF 182, which corresponds to the highest absolute transfer increase of all age groups. Results By constructing models for age-specific RA growth and for calculating the lifetime sum of RA transfers we investigated the causes and consequences of demographic changes on RA payments. The models suggest that the main driver for RA increases in the past was below average health care expenditure (HCE) growth in young adults, which was only half as high (average 2% per year) compared with older adults (average 4% per year). Shifts in age group distributions were only accountable for 2% of the CHF 95 rise in RA payments. Despite rising risk adjustment debts for young insured the balance of lifetime transfers remains positive as long as HCE growth rates are greater than the discount rate used in this model (3%). Moreover, the life-cycle model predicts that the lifetime rate of return on RA payments may even be further increased by demographic changes. Nevertheless, continued growth of RA contributions may overwhelm vulnerable age groups such as young adults. We therefore propose methods to limit the burden of social health insurance for specific age groups (e.g. young adults in Switzerland) by capping solidarity payments. Conclusions Taken together, our mathematical modelling framework helps to gain a better understanding of how demographic changes interact with risk adjustment and how redistribution of funds between age groups can be controlled without inducing further selection incentives. Those methods can help to construct more equitable systems of health financing in light of population aging.