Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

Sustainable livestock production? Industrial agriculture versus pastoralism

Feeding our growing world population and preserving our natural resource base is a major agricultural challenge set to get harder. Despite agricultural productivity gains in many areas, roughly a billion people continue to suffer from chronic hunger.1 Meanwhile, we will likely add about 2.5 billion people to the planet by 2050.2 Yet providing enough nutrition for current and future generations is entirely possible, if we make the best use of Earth’s finite natural resources, especially arable land. Notably, one agricultural sector – livestock – places excessive demands on our resource base. But this is mainly due to globalized, industrial meat production methods. Tragically, the most sustainable livestock producers – herders and other mobile, smaller-scale livestock keepers – have been marginalized by mainstream agricultural policy for decades. It is high time for a course correction.