A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

Analysis of coprolites from the extinct mountain goat Myotragus balearicus

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5-4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted. (C) 2013 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inn All rights reserved.

Climate-mediated movement of an avian hybrid zone

The interaction between sibling species that share a zone of contact is a multifaceted relationship affected by climate change [ 1, 2 ]. Between sibling species, interactions may occur at whole-organism (direct or indirect competition) or genomic (hybridization and introgression) levels [ 3–5 ]. Tracking hybrid zone movements can provide insights about influences of environmental change on species interactions [ 1 ]. Here, we explore the extent and mechanism of movement of the contact zone between black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina chickadees (Poecile carolinensis) at whole-organism and genomic levels. We find strong evidence that winter temperatures limit the northern extent of P. carolinensis by demonstrating a current-day association between the range limit of this species and minimum winter temperatures. We further show that this temperature limitation has been consistent over time because we are able to accurately hindcast the previous northern range limit under earlier climate conditions. Using genomic data, we confirm northward movement of this contact zone over the past decade and highlight temporally consistent differential—but limited—geographic introgression of alleles. Our results provide an informative example of the influence of climate change on a contact zone between sibling species.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

The recent eutrophication of Baldeggersee (Switzerland) as assessed by fossil diatom assemblages

Diatom analyses with an annual resolution were carried out on varves of the hypertrophic Baldeggersee (Central Swiss Plateau) for the timespan ad 1885 to 1993. They reveal seven major changes in the dominant planktonic diatoms. As a result of progressive nutrient enrichment, Baldeggersee changed in the 1910s from a Cyclotella to a Tabellaria fenestrata dominated assemblage, and eventually in the 1950s to a Stephanodiscus parvus dominated diatom assemblage. The timing and direction of diatom-assemblage changes in the varved sediment compare well with sedimentological and limnological observations. Partitioning of the variance in the diatom data revealed that TP is a stronger explanatory variable than temperature for these changes. A diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) reconstruction indicates three major steps in eutrophication, occurring at 1909, the mid-1950s and the mid-1970s. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model used is able to hindcast past TP concentrations reliably. The major steps in eutrophication led to decreases in diatom diversity and also resulted in a progressive increase of calcite grain-size. The lake restoration programme established since 1982 shows no direct impact on the composition of the diatom assemblages. However, the decrease in phosphorus loads since the mid-1970s is reflected in the diatom assemblages and in decreasing diatom-inferred TP concentrations.