Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

Semantic memory involvement in the default mode network: a functional neuroimaging study using independent component analysis

The Default Mode Network (DMN) is a higher order functional neural network that displays activation during passive rest and deactivation during many types of cognitive tasks. Accordingly, the DMN is viewed to represent the neural correlate of internally-generated self-referential cognition. This hypothesis implies that the DMN requires the involvement of cognitive processes, like declarative memory. The present study thus examines the spatial and functional convergence of the DMN and the semantic memory system. Using an active block-design functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) paradigm and Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we trace the DMN and fMRI signal changes evoked by semantic, phonological and perceptual decision tasks upon visually-presented words. Our findings show less deactivation during semantic compared to the two non-semantic tasks for the entire DMN unit and within left-hemispheric DMN regions, i.e., the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the retrosplenial cortex, the angular gyrus, the middle temporal gyrus and the anterior temporal region, as well as the right cerebellum. These results demonstrate that well-known semantic regions are spatially and functionally involved in the DMN. The present study further supports the hypothesis of the DMN as an internal mentation system that involves declarative memory functions.

Quality evaluation of tandem mass spectral libraries

Tandem mass spectral libraries are gaining more and more importance for the identification of unknowns in different fields of research, including metabolomics, forensics, toxicology, and environmental analysis. Particularly, the recent invention of reliable, robust, and transferable libraries has increased the general acceptance of these tools. Herein, we report on results obtained from thorough evaluation of the match reliabilities of two tandem mass spectral libraries: the MSforID library established by the Oberacher group in Innsbruck and the Weinmann library established by the Weinmann group in Freiburg. Three different experiments were performed: (1) Spectra of the libraries were searched against their corresponding library after excluding either this single compound-specific spectrum or all compound-specific spectra prior to searching; (2) the libraries were searched against each other using either library as reference set or sample set; (3) spectra acquired on different mass spectrometric instruments were matched to both libraries. Almost 13,000 tandem mass spectra were included in this study. The MSforID search algorithm was used for spectral matching. Statistical evaluation of the library search results revealed that principally both libraries enable the sensitive and specific identification of compounds. Due to higher mass accuracy of the QqTOF compared with the QTrap instrument, matches to the MSforID library were more reliable when comparing spectra with both libraries. Furthermore, only the MSforID library was shown to be efficiently transferable to different kinds of tandem mass spectrometers, including "tandem-in-time" instruments; this is due to the coverage of a large range of different collision energy settings-including the very low range-which is an outstanding characteristics of the MSforID library.

Periodic breathing during ascent to extreme altitude quantified by spectral analysis of the respiratory volume signal

High altitude periodic breathing (PB) shares some common pathophysiologic aspects with sleep apnea, Cheyne-Stokes respiration and PB in heart failure patients. Methods that allow quantifying instabilities of respiratory control provide valuable insights in physiologic mechanisms and help to identify therapeutic targets. Under the hypothesis that high altitude PB appears even during physical activity and can be identified in comparison to visual analysis in conditions of low SNR, this study aims to identify PB by characterizing the respiratory pattern through the respiratory volume signal. A number of spectral parameters are extracted from the power spectral density (PSD) of the volume signal, derived from respiratory inductive plethysmography and evaluated through a linear discriminant analysis. A dataset of 34 healthy mountaineers ascending to Mt. Muztagh Ata, China (7,546 m) visually labeled as PB and non periodic breathing (nPB) is analyzed. All climbing periods within all the ascents are considered (total climbing periods: 371 nPB and 40 PB). The best crossvalidated result classifying PB and nPB is obtained with Pm (power of the modulation frequency band) and R (ratio between modulation and respiration power) with an accuracy of 80.3% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 84.5%. Comparing the subjects from 1(st) and 2(nd) ascents (at the same altitudes but the latter more acclimatized) the effect of acclimatization is evaluated. SaO(2) and periodic breathing cycles significantly increased with acclimatization (p-value < 0.05). Higher Pm and higher respiratory frequencies are observed at lower SaO(2), through a significant negative correlation (p-value < 0.01). Higher Pm is observed at climbing periods visually labeled as PB with > 5 periodic breathing cycles through a significant positive correlation (p-value < 0.01). Our data demonstrate that quantification of the respiratory volume signal using spectral analysis is suitable to identify effects of hypobaric hypoxia on control of breathing.

Early autonomic dysfunction in patients with diabetes mellitus assessed by spectral analysis of heart rate and blood pressure variability

Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) often have alterations of the autonomic nervous system (ANS), even early in their disease course. Previous research has not evaluated whether these changes may have consequences on adaptation mechanisms in DM, e.g. to mental stress. We therefore evaluated whether patients with DM who already had early alterations of the ANS reacted with an abnormal regulatory pattern to mental stress. We used the spectral analysis technique, known to be valuable and reliable in the investigation of disturbances of the ANS. We investigated 34 patients with DM without clinical evidence of ANS dysfunction (e.g. orthostatic hypotension) and 44 normal control subjects (NC group). No patients on medication known to alter ANS responses were accepted. The investigation consisted of a resting state evaluation and a mental stress task (BonnDet). In basal values, only the 21 patients with type 2 DM were different in respect to body mass index and systolic blood pressure. In the study parameters we found significantly lower values in resting and mental stress spectral power of mid-frequency band (known to represent predominantly sympathetic influences) and of high-frequency and respiration bands (known to represent parasympathetic influences) in patients with DM (types 1 and 2) compared with NC group (5.3 +/- 1.2 ms2 vs. 6.1 +/- 1.3 ms2, and 5.5 +/- 1.6 ms2 vs. 6.2 +/- 1.5 ms2, and 4.6 +/- 1.7 ms2 vs. 6.2 +/- 1.5 ms2, for resting values respectively; 4.7 +/- 1.4 ms2 vs. 5.9 +/- 1.2 ms2, and 4.6 +/- 1.9 ms2 vs. 5.6 +/- 1.7 ms2, and 3.7 +/- 2.1 ms2 vs. 5.6 +/- 1.7 ms2, for stress values respectively; M/F ratio 6/26 vs. 30/14). These differences remained significant even when controlled for age, sex, and body weight. However, patients with DM type 2 (and significantly higher body weight) showed only significant values in mental stress modulus values. There were no specific group effects in the patients with DM in adaptation mechanisms to mental stress compared with the NC group. These findings demonstrate that power spectral examinations at rest are sufficiently reliable to diagnose early alterations in ANS in patients with DM. The spectral analysis technique is sensitive and reliable in investigation of ANS in patients with DM without clinically symptomatic autonomic dysfunction.

Visual and spectral analysis of sleep EEG in acute hemispheric stroke

BACKGROUND: Reports on the effects of focal hemispheric damage on sleep EEG are rare and contradictory. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty patients (mean age +/- SD 53 +/- 14 years) with a first acute hemispheric stroke and no sleep apnea were studied. Stroke severity [National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS)], volume (diffusion-weighted brain MRI), and short-term outcome (Rankin score) were assessed. Within the first 8 days after stroke onset, 1-3 sleep EEG recordings per patient were performed. Sleep scoring and spectral analysis were based on the central derivation of the healthy hemisphere. Data were compared with those of 10 age-matched and gender-matched hospitalized controls with no brain damage and no sleep apnea. RESULTS: Stroke patients had higher amounts of wakefulness after sleep onset (112 +/- 53 min vs. 60 +/- 38 min, p < 0.05) and a lower sleep efficiency (76 +/- 10% vs. 86 +/- 8%, p < 0.05) than controls. Time spent in slow-wave sleep (SWS) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and total sleep time were lower in stroke patients, but differences were not significant. A positive correlation was found between the amount of SWS and stroke volume (r = 0.79). The slow-wave activity (SWA) ratio NREM sleep/wakefulness was lower in patients than in controls (p < 0.05), and correlated with NIHSS (r = -0.47). CONCLUSION: Acute hemispheric stroke is accompanied by alterations of sleep EEG over the healthy hemisphere that correlate with stroke volume and outcome. The increased SWA during wakefulness and SWS over the healthy hemisphere contralaterally to large strokes may reflect neuronal hypometabolism induced transhemispherically (diaschisis).

Attentional blink and impulsiveness: evidence for higher functional impulsivity in non-blinkers compared to blinkers

The attentional blink (AB) represents a fundamental limit of information processing. About 5-10 % of all subjects, however, do not show the AB. Because of the low base rate of these so-called non-blinkers, studies on mechanisms underlying non-blinkers' absent AB are extremely scant. The few existent studies found non-blinkers to be faster and more efficient in information processing compared to blinkers. A personality trait that has been linked previously to speed and efficiency of information processing as well as to the magnitude of the AB is impulsivity. Therefore, the present study investigated whether 15 non-blinkers and 15 blinkers differed from each other in functional and/or dysfunctional impulsivity. To obtain a better understanding of the underlying processing mechanisms, the P300 component in the event-related potential was recorded during performance on the AB task. Our results indicated higher functional impulsivity in non-blinkers compared to blinkers but no differences between the two groups in dysfunctional impulsivity. As indicated by shorter P300 latency, non-blinkers processed information faster than blinkers after the AB period but slower during the AB period. These speed effects, however, were not associated with functional impulsivity. Thus, impulsivity and speed of information processing appear to represent two rather independent sources for non-blinkers' absent AB

Testing an alternative search algorithm for compound identification with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data. MSforID'

A tandem mass spectral database system consists of a library of reference spectra and a search program. State-of-the-art search programs show a high tolerance for variability in compound-specific fragmentation patterns produced by collision-induced decomposition and enable sensitive and specific 'identity search'. In this communication, performance characteristics of two search algorithms combined with the 'Wiley Registry of Tandem Mass Spectral Data, MSforID' (Wiley Registry MSMS, John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA) were evaluated. The search algorithms tested were the MSMS search algorithm implemented in the NIST MS Search program 2.0g (NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, USA) and the MSforID algorithm (John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA). Sample spectra were acquired on different instruments and, thus, covered a broad range of possible experimental conditions or were generated in silico. For each algorithm, more than 30,000 matches were performed. Statistical evaluation of the library search results revealed that principally both search algorithms can be combined with the Wiley Registry MSMS to create a reliable identification tool. It appears, however, that a higher degree of spectral similarity is necessary to obtain a correct match with the NIST MS Search program. This characteristic of the NIST MS Search program has a positive effect on specificity as it helps to avoid false positive matches (type I errors), but reduces sensitivity. Thus, particularly with sample spectra acquired on instruments differing in their Setup from tandem-in-space type fragmentation, a comparably higher number of false negative matches (type II errors) were observed by searching the Wiley Registry MSMS.

Evidence for mental ability related individual differences in the attentional blink obtained by an analysis of the P300 component

Attentional blink (AB) refers to impaired identification of a target (T2) when this target follows a preceding target (T1) after about 150-450 ms within a stream of rapidly presented stimuli. Previous research on a possible relation between AB and mental ability (MA) turned out to be highly ambiguous. The present study investigated MA-related individual differences in consolidation of T2 in working memory during the AB as indicated by the P300 component of the event-related potential. Thirty high (HA) and 30 low MA (LA) female participants performed an AB task while their brain activity was recorded. The AB did not differ between the two groups. HA individuals exhibited a larger P300 amplitude and longer P300 latencies during the AB suggesting higher mental effort. This higher mental effort, however, did not result in better performance presumably because of more competition between target and distractor stimuli in HA than LA individuals.

Differentiation of Diabetic Macular Edema From Pseudophakic Cystoid Macular Edema by Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography.

PURPOSE: To differentiate diabetic macular edema (DME) from pseudophakic cystoid macular edema (PCME) based solely on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 134 participants: 49 with PCME, 60 with DME, and 25 with diabetic retinopathy (DR) and ME after cataract surgery. First, two unmasked experts classified the 25 DR patients after cataract surgery as either DME, PCME, or mixed-pattern based on SD-OCT and color-fundus photography. Then all 134 patients were divided into two datasets and graded by two masked readers according to a standardized reading-protocol. Accuracy of the masked readers to differentiate the diseases based on SD-OCT parameters was tested. Parallel to the masked readers, a computer-based algorithm was established using support vector machine (SVM) classifiers to automatically differentiate disease entities. RESULTS: The masked readers assigned 92.5% SD-OCT images to the correct clinical diagnose. The classifier-accuracy trained and tested on dataset 1 was 95.8%. The classifier-accuracy trained on dataset 1 and tested on dataset 2 to differentiate PCME from DME was 90.2%. The classifier-accuracy trained and tested on dataset 2 to differentiate all three diseases was 85.5%. In particular, higher central-retinal thickness/retinal-volume ratio, absence of an epiretinal-membrane, and solely inner nuclear layer (INL)-cysts indicated PCME, whereas higher outer nuclear layer (ONL)/INL ratio, the absence of subretinal fluid, presence of hard exudates, microaneurysms, and ganglion cell layer and/or retinal nerve fiber layer cysts strongly favored DME in this model. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evaluation of SD-OCT, PCME can be differentiated from DME by masked reader evaluation, and by automated analysis, even in DR patients with ME after cataract surgery. The automated classifier may help to independently differentiate these two disease entities and is made publicly available.

SPECTRAL DOMAIN-OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY IMAGE CONTRAST AND BACKGROUND COLOR SETTINGS INFLUENCE IDENTIFICATION OF RETINAL STRUCTURES.

PURPOSE To evaluate image contrast and color setting on assessment of retinal structures and morphology in spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. METHODS Two hundred and forty-eight Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography B-scans of 62 patients were analyzed by 4 readers. B-scans were extracted in 4 settings: W + N = white background with black image at normal contrast 9; W + H = white background with black image at maximum contrast 16; B + N = black background with white image at normal contrast 12; B + H = black background with white image at maximum contrast 16. Readers analyzed the images to identify morphologic features. Interreader correlation was calculated. Differences between Fleiss-kappa correlation coefficients were examined using bootstrap method. Any setting with significantly higher correlation coefficient was deemed superior for evaluating specific features. RESULTS Correlation coefficients differed among settings. No single setting was superior for all respective spectral-domain optical coherence tomography parameters (P = 0.3773). Some variables showed no differences among settings. Hard exudates and subretinal fluid were best seen with B + H (κ = 0.46, P = 0.0237 and κ = 0.78, P = 0.002). Microaneurysms were best seen with W + N (κ = 0.56, P = 0.025). Vitreomacular interface, enhanced transmission signal, and epiretinal membrane were best identified using all color/contrast settings together (κ = 0.44, P = 0.042, κ = 0.57, P = 0.01, and κ = 0.62, P ≤ 0.0001). CONCLUSION Contrast and background affect the evaluation of retinal structures on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography images. No single setting was superior for all features, though certain changes were best seen with specific settings.