A "Beyond WTO" Scenario for Swiss Agriculture: Consequences for Income Generation and the Provision of Public Goods

The conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations is likely to influence Swiss agricultural policy substantially. The same goes for a free trade agreement in agriculture and food with the European Communities. Even though neither of them will bring about duty-free and quota-free market access, or restrict domestic support measures to green box compatible support, both would represent a big step in that direction. There is no empirical evidence on the effect of such a counterfactual scenario for Swiss agriculture. We therefore use a normative mathematical programming model to illustrate possible effects for agricultural production and the corresponding agricultural income. Moreover, we discuss the results with respect to the provision of public goods under the assumption of continuing green box-compatible direct payments. The aim of our article is to bring more transparency into the discussion on the effects of freer and less distorted trade on the income generation by a multifunctional agriculture. The article will be organized as follows. In the first Section we specify the background of our study. In the second section, we focus on the problem statement and our research questions. In Section 3, we describe in detail a counterfactual scenario of “duty-free, quota-free and price support-free” agriculture from an economic as well as a legal perspective. Our methodology and the results are presented in Section 4 and 5 respectively. In Section 6, we discuss our results with respect to economic and legal aspects of multifunctional agriculture.

Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey

Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is highly agrarian, with about 50% of family income deriving from agriculture (see Figure 4.1; also LSMS 2007 – own calculations). Tajikistan’s agriculture basically consists of two groups of producers: small household plots – the successors of Soviet “private agriculture” – and dehkan (or “peasant”) farms – new family farming structures that began to be created under relevant legislation passed after 1992 (Lerman and Sedik, 2008). The household plots manage 20% of arable land and produce 65% of gross agricultural output (GAO). Dehkan farms manage 65% of arable land and produce close to 30% of GAO. The remaining 15% of arable land is held in agricultural enterprises – the rapidly shrinking sector of corporate farms that succeeded the Soviet kolkhozes and sovkhozes and today produces less than 10% of GAO (TajStat 2011) The survey conducted in May 2011 focused on dehkan farms, as budgetary constraints precluded the inclusion of household plots. A total of 142 dehkan farms were surveyed in face-to-face interviews. They were sampled from 17 districts across all four regions – Sughd, Khatlon, RRP, and GBAO. The districts were selected so as to represent different agro-climatic zones, different vulnerability zones (based on the World Bank (2011) vulnerability assessment), and different food-insecurity zones (based on WFP/IPC assessments). Within each district, 3-4 jamoats were chosen at random and 2-3 farms were selected in each jamoat from lists provided by jamoat administration so as to maximize the variability by farm characteristics. The sample design by region/district is presented in Table A, which also shows the agro-climatic zone and the food security phase for each district. The sample districts are superimposed on a map of food security phases based on IPC April 2011.

Tuberculosis in HIV programmes in lower-income countries: practices and risk factors

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a common diagnosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). OBJECTIVE: To describe TB-related practices in ART programmes in lower-income countries and identify risk factors for TB in the first year of ART. METHODS: Programme characteristics were assessed using standardised electronic questionnaire. Patient data from 2003 to 2008 were analysed and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) calculated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Fifteen ART programmes in 12 countries in Africa, South America and Asia were included. Chest X-ray, sputum microscopy and culture were available free of charge in respectively 13 (86.7%), 14 (93.3%) and eight (53.3%) programmes. Eight sites (53.3%) used directly observed treatment and five (33.3%) routinely administered isoniazid preventive treatment (IPT). A total of 19 413 patients aged ≥16 years contributed 13 227 person-years of follow-up; 1081 new TB events were diagnosed. Risk factors included CD4 cell count (>350 cells/μl vs. <25 cells/μl, adjusted IRR 0.46, 95%CI 0.33–0.64, P < 0.0001), sex (women vs. men, adjusted IRR 0.77, 95%CI 0.68–0.88, P = 0.0001) and use of IPT (IRR 0.24, 95%CI 0.19–0.31, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic capacity and practices vary widely across ART programmes. IPT prevented TB, but was used in few programmes. More efforts are needed to reduce the burden of TB in HIV co-infected patients in lower income countries.

Gross total resection rates in contemporary glioblastoma surgery: results of an institutional protocol combining 5-aminolevulinic acid intraoperative fluorescence imaging and brain mapping

Complete resection of contrast-enhancing tumor has been recognized as an important prognostic factor in patients with glioblastoma and is a primary goal of surgery. Various intraoperative technologies have recently been introduced to improve glioma surgery.

Impact of antiretroviral therapy on tuberculosis incidence among HIV-positive patients in high-income countries

The lower tuberculosis incidence reported in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals receiving combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) is difficult to interpret causally. Furthermore, the role of unmasking immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is unclear. We aim to estimate the effect of cART on tuberculosis incidence in HIV-positive individuals in high-income countries.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Tuberculosis after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in low-income and high-income countries

We examined the incidence of and risk factors for tuberculosis during the first year of highly active antiretroviral therapy in low-income (4540 patients) and high-income (22,217 patients) countries. Although incidence was much higher in low-income countries, the reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis associated with highly active antiretroviral therapy was similar: the rate ratio for months 7-12 versus months 1-3 was 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.64) in low-income countries and 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.50) in high-income countries. A low CD4 cell count at the start of therapy was the most important risk factor in both settings.

Discordant responses to potent antiretroviral treatment in previously naive HIV-1-infected adults initiating treatment in resource-constrained countries: the antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries (ART-LINC) collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess the frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses at 6 months on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in previously treatment-naive HIV patients from resource-limited countries. METHODS: The Antiretroviral Therapy in Low-Income Countries Collaboration is a network of clinics providing care and treatment to HIV-infected patients in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Patients who initiated therapy between 1996 and 2004, were aged 16 years or older, and had a baseline CD4 cell count were included in this analysis. Responses were defined based on plasma viral load (PVL) and CD4 cell count at 6 months as complete virologic and immunologic (VR(+)IR(+)), virologic only (VR(+)IR(-)), immunologic only (VR(-)IR(+)), and nonresponse (VR(-)IR(-)). Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between therapy responses and clinical and demographic variables. RESULTS: Of the 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VR(+)IR(+), 364 (19.0%) were VR(+)IR(-), 283 (14.8%) were (VR(-)IR(+)), and 193 (10.1%) were VR(-)IR(-). OF THE 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VRIR, 364 (19.0%) were VRIR, 283 (14.8%) were (VRIR), and 193 (10.1%) were VRIR. Compared with complete responders, virologic-only responders were older, had a higher baseline CD4 cell count, had a lower baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a nonstandard HAART regimen; immunologic-only responders were younger, had a lower baseline CD4 cell count, had a higher baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a protease inhibitor-based regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses were comparable to those observed in developed countries. Longer follow-up is needed to assess the long-term impact of discordant responses on mortality in these resource-limited settings.