Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Developmental self-construction and -configuration of functional neocortical neuronal networks.

The prenatal development of neural circuits must provide sufficient configuration to support at least a set of core postnatal behaviors. Although knowledge of various genetic and cellular aspects of development is accumulating rapidly, there is less systematic understanding of how these various processes play together in order to construct such functional networks. Here we make some steps toward such understanding by demonstrating through detailed simulations how a competitive co-operative ('winner-take-all', WTA) network architecture can arise by development from a single precursor cell. This precursor is granted a simplified gene regulatory network that directs cell mitosis, differentiation, migration, neurite outgrowth and synaptogenesis. Once initial axonal connection patterns are established, their synaptic weights undergo homeostatic unsupervised learning that is shaped by wave-like input patterns. We demonstrate how this autonomous genetically directed developmental sequence can give rise to self-calibrated WTA networks, and compare our simulation results with biological data.

Prednisolone treatment induces tolerogenic dendritic cells and a regulatory milieu in myasthenia gravis patients

FOXP3-expressing naturally occurring CD4(+)CD25(high) T regulatory cells (Treg) are relevant in the control of autoimmunity, and a defect in this cell population has been observed in several human autoimmune diseases. We hypothesized that altered functions of peripheral Treg cells might play a role in the immunopathogenesis of myasthenia gravis, a T cell-dependent autoimmune disease characterized by the presence of pathogenic autoantibodies specific for the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor. We report in this study a significant decrease in the in vitro suppressive function of peripheral Treg cells isolated from myasthenia patients in comparison to those from healthy donors. Interestingly, Treg cells from prednisolone-treated myasthenia gravis patients showed an improved suppressive function compared with untreated patients, suggesting that prednisolone may play a role in the control of the peripheral regulatory network. Indeed, prednisolone treatment prevents LPS-induced maturation of monocyte-derived dendritic cells by hampering the up-regulation of costimulatory molecules and by limiting secretion of IL-12 and IL-23, and enhancing IL-10. In addition, CD4(+) T cells cultured in the presence of such tolerogenic dendritic cells are hyporesponsive and can suppress autologous CD4(+) T cell proliferation. The results shown in this study indicate that prednisolone treatment promotes an environment that favors immune regulation rather than inflammation.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Molecular epidemiology of the nasal colonization by methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus in Swiss children

Nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus contributes to an increased risk of developing an infection with the same bacterial strain. Genetic regulatory elements and toxin-expressing genes are virulence factors associated with the pathogenic potential of S. aureus. We undertook an extensive molecular characterization of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) carried by children. MSSA were recovered from the nostrils of children. The presence of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), exfoliatins A and B (exfoA and exfoB), and the toxic-shock staphylococcal toxin (TSST-1) and agr group typing were determined by quantitative PCR. A multiple-locus variable-number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) assay was also performed for genotyping. Five hundred and seventy-two strains of MSSA were analysed. Overall, 30% were positive for toxin-expressing genes: 29% contained one toxin and 1.6% two toxins. The most commonly detected toxin gene was tst, which was present in 145 (25%) strains. The TSST-1 gene was significantly associated with the agr group 3 (OR 56.8, 95% CI 32.0-100.8). MLVA analysis revealed a large diversity of genetic content and no clonal relationship was demonstrated among the analysed MSSA strains. Multilocus sequence typing confirmed this observation of diversity and identified ST45 as a frequent colonizer. This broad diversity in MSSA carriage strains suggests a limited selection pressure in our geographical area.

Metabolomic tissue signature in human non-alcoholic fatty liver disease identifies protective candidate metabolites

Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disorder in industrialized countries, yet its pathophysiology is incompletely understood. Small-molecule metabolite screens may offer new insights into disease mechanisms and reveal new treatment targets. Methods Discovery (N = 33) and replication (N = 66) of liver biopsies spanning the range from normal liver histology to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) were ascertained ensuring rapid freezing under 30 s in patients. 252 metabolites were assessed using GC/MS. Replicated metabolites were evaluated in a murine high-fat diet model of NAFLD. Results In a two-stage metabolic screening, hydroquinone (HQ, pcombined = 3.0 × 10−4) and nicotinic acid (NA, pcombined = 3.9 × 10−9) were inversely correlated with histological NAFLD severity. A murine high-fat diet model of NAFLD demonstrated a protective effect of these two substances against NAFLD: Supplementation with 1% HQ reduced only liver steatosis, whereas 0.6% NA reduced both liver fat content and serum transaminase levels and induced a complex regulatory network of genes linked to NALFD pathogenesis in a global expression pathway analysis. Human nutritional intake of NA equivalent was also consistent with a protective effect of NA against NASH progression. Conclusion This first small-molecular screen of human liver tissue identified two replicated protective metabolites. Either the use of NA or targeting its regulatory pathways might be explored to treat or prevent human NAFLD.

Role of MicroRNA Modulation in the Interferon-α/Ribavirin Suppression of HIV-1 In Vivo.

BACKGROUND Interferon-α (IFN-α) treatment suppresses HIV-1 viremia and reduces the size of the HIV-1 latent reservoir. Therefore, investigation of the molecular and immunologic effects of IFN-α may provide insights that contribute to the development of novel prophylactic, therapeutic and curative strategies for HIV-1 infection. In this study, we hypothesized that microRNAs (miRNAs) contribute to the IFN-α-mediated suppression of HIV-1. To inform the development of novel miRNA-based antiretroviral strategies, we investigated the effects of exogenous IFN-α treatment on global miRNA expression profile, HIV-1 viremia, and potential regulatory networks between miRNAs and cell-intrinsic anti-HIV-1 host factors in vivo. METHODS Global miRNA expression was examined in longitudinal PBMC samples obtained from seven HIV/HCV-coinfected, antiretroviral therapy-naïve individuals before, during, and after pegylated interferon-α/ribavirin therapy (IFN-α/RBV). We implemented novel hybrid computational-empirical approaches to characterize regulatory networks between miRNAs and anti-HIV-1 host restriction factors. RESULTS miR-422a was the only miRNA significantly modulated by IFN-α/RBV in vivo (p<0.0001, paired t test; FDR<0.037). Our interactome mapping revealed extensive regulatory involvement of miR-422a in p53-dependent apoptotic and pyroptotic pathways. Based on sequence homology and inverse expression relationships, 29 unique miRNAs may regulate anti-HIV-1 restriction factor expression in vivo. CONCLUSIONS The specific reduction of miR-422a is associated with exogenous IFN-α treatment, and likely contributes to the IFN-α suppression of HIV-1 through the enhancement of anti-HIV-1 restriction factor expression and regulation of genes involved in programmed cell death. Moreover, our regulatory network analysis presents additional candidate miRNAs that may be targeted to enhance anti-HIV-1 restriction factor expression in vivo.

On the Dark Side of Therapies with Immunoglobulin Concentrates: The Adverse Events

Therapy by human immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrates is a success story ongoing for decades with an ever increasing demand for this plasma product. The success of IgG concentrates on a clinical level is documented by the slowly increasing number of registered indication and the more rapid increase of the off-label uses, a topic dealt with in another contribution to this special issue of Frontiers in Immunology. A part of the success is the adverse event (AE) profile of IgG concentrates which is, even at life-long need for therapy, excellent. Transmission of pathogens in the last decade could be entirely controlled through the antecedent introduction by authorities of a regulatory network and installing quality standards by the plasma fractionation industry. The cornerstone of the regulatory network is current good manufacturing practice. Non-infectious AEs occur rarely and mainly are mild to moderate. However, in recent times, the increase in frequency of hemolytic and thrombotic AEs raised worrying questions on the possible background for these AEs. Below, we review elements of non-infectious AEs, and particularly focus on hemolysis and thrombosis. We discuss how the introduction of plasma fractionation by ion-exchange chromatography and polishing by immunoaffinity chromatographic steps might alter repertoire of specificities and influence AE profiles and efficacy of IgG concentrates.