Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Network Dynamics in Natural Resource Governance: A Case Study of Swiss Landscape Management

Structural characteristics of social networks have been recognized as important factors of effective natural resource governance. However, network analyses of natural resource governance most often remain static, even though governance is an inherently dynamic process. In this article, we investigate the evolution of a social network of organizational actors involved in the governance of natural resources in a regional nature park project in Switzerland. We ask how the maturation of a governance network affects bonding social capital and centralization in the network. Applying separable temporal exponential random graph modeling (STERGM), we test two hypotheses based on the risk hypothesis by Berardo and Scholz (2010) in a longitudinal setting. Results show that network dynamics clearly follow the expected trend toward generating bonding social capital but do not imply a shift toward less hierarchical and more decentralized structures over time. We investigate how these structural processes may contribute to network effectiveness over time.

Development of Values after Compulsory School: Work comes first, then family

During school-to-work transition, adolescents develop values and prioritize what is im-portant in their life. Values are concepts or beliefs about desirable states or behaviors that guide the selection or evaluation of behavior and events, and are ordered by their relative importance (Schwartz & Bilsky, 1987). Stressing the important role of values, career re-search has intensively studied the effect of values on educational decisions and early career development (e.g. Eccles, 2005; Hirschi, 2010; Rimann, Udris, & Weiss, 2000). Few re-searchers, however, have investigated so far how values develop in the early career phase and how value trajectories are influenced by individual characteristics. Values can be oriented towards specific life domains, such as work or family. Work values include intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of work (e.g., self-development, cooperation with others, income) (George & Jones, 1997). Family values include the importance of partner-ship, the creation of an own family and having children (Mayer, Kuramschew, & Trommsdroff, 2009). Research indicates that work values change considerably during early career development (Johnson, 2001; Lindsay & Knox, 1984). Individual differences in work values and value trajectories are found e.g., in relation to gender (Duffy & Sedlacek, 2007), parental background (Loughlin & Barling, 2001), personality (Lowry et al., 2012), educa-tion (Battle, 2003), and the anticipated timing of school-to-work transition (Porfeli, 2007). In contrast to work values, research on family value trajectories is rare and knowledge about the development during the school-to-work transition and early career development is lack-ing. This paper aims at filling this research gap. Focusing on family values and intrinsic work values and we expect a) family and work val-ues to change between ages 16 and 25, and b) that initial levels of family and work values as well as value change to be predicted by gender, reading literacy, ambition, and expected du-ration of education. Method. Using data from 2620 young adults (59.5% females), who participated in the Swiss longitudinal study TREE, latent growth modeling was employed to estimate the initial level and growth rate per year for work and family values. Analyses are based on TREE-waves 1 (year 2001, first year after compulsory school) to 8 (year 2010). Variables in the models included family values and intrinsic work values, gender, reading literacy, ambition and ex-pected duration of education. Language region was included as control variable. Results. Family values did not change significantly over the first four years after leaving compulsory school (mean slope = -.03, p =.36). They increased, however, significantly five years after compulsory school (mean slope = .13, p >.001). Intercept (.23, p < .001), first slope (.02, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed significant variance. Initial levels were higher for men and those with higher ambitions. Increases were found to be steeper for males as well as for participants with lower educational duration expectations and reading skills. Intrinsic work values increased over the first four years (mean slope =.03, p <.05) and showed a tendency to decrease in the years five to ten (mean slope = -.01, p < .10). Intercept (.21, p < .001), first slope (.01, p < .001), and second slope (.01, p < .001) showed signifi-cant variance, meaning that there are individual differences in initial levels and growth rates. Initial levels were higher for females, and those with higher ambitions, expecting longer educational pathways, and having lower reading skills. Growth rates were lower for the first phase and steeper for the second phase for males compared to females. Discussion. In general, results showed different patterns of work and family value trajecto-ries, and different individual factors related to initial levels and development after compul-sory school. Developments seem to fit to major life and career roles: in the first years after compulsory school young adults may be engaged to become established in one's job; later on, raising a family becomes more important. That we found significant gender differences in work and family trajectories may reflect attempts to overcome traditional roles, as over-all, women increase in work values and men increase in family values, resulting in an over-all trend to converge.

Block of the hERG channel by bupivacaine: Electrophysiological and modeling insights towards stereochemical optimization

The hERG voltage-gated potassium channel mediates the cardiac I(Kr) current, which is crucial for the duration of the cardiac action potential. Undesired block of the channel by certain drugs may prolong the QT interval and increase the risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Although the molecular determinants of hERG block have been intensively studied, not much is known about its stereoselectivity. Levo-(S)-bupivacaine was the first drug reported to have a higher affinity to block hERG than its enantiomer. This study strives to understand the principles underlying the stereoselectivity of bupivacaine block with the help of mutagenesis analyses and molecular modeling simulations. Electrophysiological measurements of mutated hERG channels allowed for the identification of residues involved in bupivacaine binding and stereoselectivity. Docking and molecular mechanics simulations for both enantiomers of bupivacaine and terfenadine (a non-stereoselective blocker) were performed inside an open-state model of the hERG channel. The predicted binding modes enabled a clear depiction of ligand-protein interactions. Estimated binding affinities for both enantiomers were consistent with electrophysiological measurements. A similar computational procedure was applied to bupivacaine enantiomers towards two mutated hERG channels (Tyr652Ala and Phe656Ala). This study confirmed, at the molecular level, that bupivacaine stereoselectively binds the hERG channel. These results help to lay the foundation for structural guidelines to optimize the cardiotoxic profile of drug candidates in silico.

From transient to steady state deformation and grain size: A thermodynamic approach using elasto-visco-plastic numerical modeling

Numerical simulation experiments give insight into the evolving energy partitioning during high-strain torsion experiments of calcite. Our numerical experiments are designed to derive a generic macroscopic grain size sensitive flow law capable of describing the full evolution from the transient regime to steady state. The transient regime is crucial for understanding the importance of micro structural processes that may lead to strain localization phenomena in deforming materials. This is particularly important in geological and geodynamic applications where the phenomenon of strain localization happens outside the time frame that can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions. Ourmethod is based on an extension of the paleowattmeter approach to the transient regime. We add an empirical hardening law using the Ramberg-Osgood approximation and assess the experiments by an evolution test function of stored over dissipated energy (lambda factor). Parameter studies of, strain hardening, dislocation creep parameter, strain rates, temperature, and lambda factor as well asmesh sensitivity are presented to explore the sensitivity of the newly derived transient/steady state flow law. Our analysis can be seen as one of the first steps in a hybrid computational-laboratory-field modeling workflow. The analysis could be improved through independent verifications by thermographic analysis in physical laboratory experiments to independently assess lambda factor evolution under laboratory conditions.

Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission

Abstract Objectives: HIV 'treatment as prevention' (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and of the relation of HIV transmission risk to viral load. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase databases for studies that established a relationship between viral load and transmission risk, or primary infection and transmission risk, in serodiscordant couples. We analysed assumptions about the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and between duration of primary infection and transmission risk. Results: We found 36 eligible articles, based on six different study populations. Studies consistently found that larger viral loads lead to higher HIV transmission rates, but assumptions about the shape of this increase varied from exponential increase to saturation. The assumed duration of primary infection ranged from 1.5 to 12 months; for each additional month, the log10 transmission rate ratio between primary and asymptomatic infection decreased by 0.40. Conclusion: Assumptions and estimates of the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and the relationship between primary infection and transmission risk, vary substantially and predictions of TasP's effectiveness should take this uncertainty into account.

Quasi-Self-Dual Exponential Lévy Processes

The important application of semistatic hedging in financial markets naturally leads to the notion of quasi--self-dual processes. The focus of our study is to give new characterizations of quasi--self-duality. We analyze quasi--self-dual Lévy driven markets which do not admit arbitrage opportunities and derive a set of equivalent conditions for the stochastic logarithm of quasi--self-dual martingale models. Since for nonvanishing order parameter two martingale properties have to be satisfied simultaneously, there is a nontrivial relation between the order and shift parameter representing carrying costs in financial applications. This leads to an equation containing an integral term which has to be inverted in applications. We first discuss several important properties of this equation and, for some well-known Lévy-driven models, we derive a family of closed-form inversion formulae.

Elucidating the Functional Relationship Between Working Memory Capacity and Psychometric Intelligence: A Fixed-Links Modeling Approach for Experimental Repeated-Measures Designs

Numerous studies reported a strong link between working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf), although views differ in respect to how close these two constructs are related to each other. In the present study, we used a WMC task with five levels of task demands to assess the relationship between WMC and Gf by means of a new methodological approach referred to as fixed-links modeling. Fixed-links models belong to the family of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and are of particular interest for experimental, repeated-measures designs. With this technique, processes systematically varying across task conditions can be disentangled from processes unaffected by the experimental manipulation. Proceeding from the assumption that experimental manipulation in a WMC task leads to increasing demands on WMC, the processes systematically varying across task conditions can be assumed to be WMC-specific. Processes not varying across task conditions, on the other hand, are probably independent of WMC. Fixed-links models allow for representing these two kinds of processes by two independent latent variables. In contrast to traditional CFA where a common latent variable is derived from the different task conditions, fixed-links models facilitate a more precise or purified representation of the WMC-related processes of interest. By using fixed-links modeling to analyze data of 200 participants, we identified a non-experimental latent variable, representing processes that remained constant irrespective of the WMC task conditions, and an experimental latent variable which reflected processes that varied as a function of experimental manipulation. This latter variable represents the increasing demands on WMC and, hence, was considered a purified measure of WMC controlled for the constant processes. Fixed-links modeling showed that both the purified measure of WMC (β = .48) as well as the constant processes involved in the task (β = .45) were related to Gf. Taken together, these two latent variables explained the same portion of variance of Gf as a single latent variable obtained by traditional CFA (β = .65) indicating that traditional CFA causes an overestimation of the effective relationship between WMC and Gf. Thus, fixed-links modeling provides a feasible method for a more valid investigation of the functional relationship between specific constructs.

Whole-exome sequencing reveals a C-terminal germline variant in CEBPA-associated acute myeloid leukemia: 45-year follow-up of a large family.

Familial acute myeloid leukemia is rare and linked to germline mutations in RUNX1, GATA2 or CCAAT/enhancer binding protein-α (CEBPA). We re-evaluated a large family with acute myeloid leukemia originally seen at NIH in 1969. We utilized whole-exome sequencing to study this family, and conducted in silico bioinformatics analysis, protein structural modeling and laboratory experiments to assess the impact of the identified CEBPA Q311P mutation. Unlike most previously identified germline mutations in CEBPA, which were N-terminal frameshift mutations, we identified a novel Q311P variant that was located in the C-terminal bZip domain of C/EBPα. Protein structural modeling suggested that the Q311P mutation alters the ability of the CEBPA dimer to bind DNA. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays showed that the Q311P mutant had attenuated binding to DNA, as predicted by the protein modeling. Consistent with these findings, we found that the Q311P mutation has reduced transactivation, consistent with a loss-of-function mutation. From 45 years of follow-up, we observed incomplete penetrance (46%) of CEBPA Q311P. This study of a large multi-generational pedigree reveals that a germline mutation in the C-terminal bZip domain can alter the ability of C/EBP-α to bind DNA and reduces transactivation, leading to acute myeloid leukemia.

Collisional Formation and Modeling of Asteroid Families

In the last decade, thanks to the development of sophisticated numerical codes, major breakthroughs have been achieved in our understanding of the formation of asteroid families by catastrophic disruption of large parent bodies. In this review, we describe numerical simulations of asteroid collisions that reproduced the main properties of families, accounting for both the fragmentation of an asteroid at the time of impact and the subsequent gravitational interactions of the generated fragments. The simulations demonstrate that the catastrophic disruption of bodies larger than a few hundred meters in diameter leads to the formation of large aggregates due to gravitational reaccumulation of smaller fragments, which helps explain the presence of large members within asteroid families. Thus, for the first time, numerical simulations successfully reproduced the sizes and ejection velocities of members of representative families. Moreover, the simulations provide constraints on the family dynamical histories and on the possible internal structure of family members and their parent bodies.

Differences in grain growth of calcite: a field-based modeling approach

Normal grain growth of calcite was investigated by combining grain size analysis of calcite across the contact aureole of the Adamello pluton, and grain growth modeling based on a thermal model of the surroundings of the pluton. In an unbiased model system, i.e., location dependent variations in temperature-time path, 2/3 and 1/3 of grain growth occurs during pro- and retrograde metamorphism at all locations, respectively. In contrast to this idealized situation, in the field example three groups can be distinguished, which are characterized by variations in their grain size versus temperature relationships: Group I occurs at low temperatures and the grain size remains constant because nano-scale second phase particles of organic origin inhibit grain growth in the calcite aggregates under these conditions. In the presence of an aqueous fluid, these second phases decay at a temperature of about 350 °C enabling the onset of grain growth in calcite. In the following growth period, fluid-enhanced group II and slower group III growth occurs. For group II a continuous and intense grain size increase with T is typical while the grain growth decreases with T for group III. None of the observed trends correlate with experimentally based grain growth kinetics, probably due to differences between nature and experiment which have not yet been investigated (e.g., porosity, second phases). Therefore, grain growth modeling was used to iteratively improve the correlation between measured and modeled grain sizes by optimizing activation energy (Q), pre-exponential factor (k0) and grain size exponent (n). For n=2, Q of 350 kJ/mol, k0 of 1.7×1021 μmns−1 and Q of 35 kJ/mol, k0 of 2.5×10-5 μmns−1 were obtained for group II and III, respectively. With respect to future work, field-data based grain growth modeling might be a promising tool for investigating the influences of secondary effects like porosity and second phases on grain growth in nature, and to unravel differences between nature and experiment.