Age-specific and sex-specific weight gain norms to monitor antiretroviral therapy in children in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND Viral load and CD4% are often not available in resource-limited settings for monitoring children's responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to construct normative curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following initiation of ART in children, and to assess the association between poor weight gain and subsequent responses to ART. DESIGN Analysis of data from HIV-infected children younger than 10 years old from African and Asian clinics participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS. METHODS The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape was used to construct normative percentile curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following ART initiation. Cox proportional models were used to assess the association between lower percentiles (< 50th) of weight gain distribution at the different time points and subsequent death, virological suppression, and virological failure. RESULTS Among 7173 children from five regions of the world, 45% were underweight at baseline. Weight gain below the 50th percentile at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of ART was associated with increased risk of death, independent of baseline characteristics. Poor weight gain was not associated with increased hazards of virological suppression or virological failure. CONCLUSION Monitoring weight gain on ART using age-specific and sex-specific normative curves specifically developed for HIV-infected children on ART is a simple, rapid, sustainable tool that can aid in the identification of children who are at increased risk of death in the first year of ART.

Generalized eMC implementation for Monte Carlo dose calculation of electron beams from different machine types

The electron Monte Carlo (eMC) dose calculation algorithm available in the Eclipse treatment planning system (Varian Medical Systems) is based on the macro MC method and uses a beam model applicable to Varian linear accelerators. This leads to limitations in accuracy if eMC is applied to non-Varian machines. In this work eMC is generalized to also allow accurate dose calculations for electron beams from Elekta and Siemens accelerators. First, changes made in the previous study to use eMC for low electron beam energies of Varian accelerators are applied. Then, a generalized beam model is developed using a main electron source and a main photon source representing electrons and photons from the scattering foil, respectively, an edge source of electrons, a transmission source of photons and a line source of electrons and photons representing the particles from the scrapers or inserts and head scatter radiation. Regarding the macro MC dose calculation algorithm, the transport code of the secondary particles is improved. The macro MC dose calculations are validated with corresponding dose calculations using EGSnrc in homogeneous and inhomogeneous phantoms. The validation of the generalized eMC is carried out by comparing calculated and measured dose distributions in water for Varian, Elekta and Siemens machines for a variety of beam energies, applicator sizes and SSDs. The comparisons are performed in units of cGy per MU. Overall, a general agreement between calculated and measured dose distributions for all machine types and all combinations of parameters investigated is found to be within 2% or 2 mm. The results of the dose comparisons suggest that the generalized eMC is now suitable to calculate dose distributions for Varian, Elekta and Siemens linear accelerators with sufficient accuracy in the range of the investigated combinations of beam energies, applicator sizes and SSDs.

A prospective study of the impact of air pollution on respiratory symptoms and infections in infants

Rationale: There is increasing evidence that short-term exposure to air pollution has a detrimental effect on respiratory health, but data from healthy populations, particularly infants, are scarce. Objectives: To assess the association of air pollution with frequency and severity of respiratory symptoms and infections measured weekly in healthy infants. Methods: In a prospective birth cohort of 366 infants of unselected mothers, respiratory health was assessed weekly by telephone interviews during the first year of life (19,106 total observations). Daily mean levels of particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) were obtained from local monitoring stations. We determined the association of the preceding week's pollutant levels with symptom scores and respiratory tract infections using a generalized additive mixed model with an autoregressive component. In addition, we assessed whether neonatal lung function influences this association and whether duration of infectious episodes differed between weeks with normal PM10 and weeks with elevated levels. Measurements and Main Results: We found a significant association between air pollution and respiratory symptoms, particularly in the week after respiratory tract infections (risk ratio, 1.13 [1.02-1.24] per 10 μg/m(3) PM10 levels) and in infants with premorbid lung function. During times of elevated PM10 (>33.3 μg/m(3)), duration of respiratory tract infections increased by 20% (95% confidence interval, 2-42%). Conclusions: Exposure to even moderate levels of air pollution was associated with increased respiratory symptoms in healthy infants. Particularly in infants with premorbid lung function and inflammation, air pollution contributed to longer duration of infectious episodes with a potentially large socioeconomic impact.

Monte Carlo source model for photon beam radiotherapy: photon source characteristics

A major barrier to widespread clinical implementation of Monte Carlo dose calculation is the difficulty in characterizing the radiation source within a generalized source model. This work aims to develop a generalized three-component source model (target, primary collimator, flattening filter) for 6- and 18-MV photon beams that match full phase-space data (PSD). Subsource by subsource comparison of dose distributions, using either source PSD or the source model as input, allows accurate source characterization and has the potential to ease the commissioning procedure, since it is possible to obtain information about which subsource needs to be tuned. This source model is unique in that, compared to previous source models, it retains additional correlations among PS variables, which improves accuracy at nonstandard source-to-surface distances (SSDs). In our study, three-dimensional (3D) dose calculations were performed for SSDs ranging from 50 to 200 cm and for field sizes from 1 x 1 to 30 x 30 cm2 as well as a 10 x 10 cm2 field 5 cm off axis in each direction. The 3D dose distributions, using either full PSD or the source model as input, were compared in terms of dose-difference and distance-to-agreement. With this model, over 99% of the voxels agreed within +/-1% or 1 mm for the target, within 2% or 2 mm for the primary collimator, and within +/-2.5% or 2 mm for the flattening filter in all cases studied. For the dose distributions, 99% of the dose voxels agreed within 1% or 1 mm when the combined source model-including a charged particle source and the full PSD as input-was used. The accurate and general characterization of each photon source and knowledge of the subsource dose distributions should facilitate source model commissioning procedures by allowing scaling the histogram distributions representing the subsources to be tuned.

Effects of Breastfeeding on Respiratory Symptoms in Infancy.

OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of potential risk factors on the development of respiratory symptoms and their specific modification by breastfeeding in infants in the first year of life. STUDY DESIGN We prospectively studied 436 healthy term infants from the Bern-Basel Infant Lung Development cohort. The breastfeeding status, and incidence and severity of respiratory symptoms (score) were assessed weekly by telephone interview during the first year of life. Risk factors (eg, pre- and postnatal smoking exposure, mode of delivery, gestational age, maternal atopy, and number of older siblings) were obtained using standardized questionnaires. Weekly measurements of particulate matter <10 μg were provided by local monitoring stations. The associations were investigated using generalized additive mixed model with quasi Poisson distribution. RESULTS Breastfeeding reduced the incidence and severity of the respiratory symptom score mainly in the first 27 weeks of life (risk ratio 0.70; 95% CI 0.55-0.88). We found a protective effect of breastfeeding in girls but not in boys. During the first 27 weeks of life, breastfeeding attenuated the effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy, gestational age, and cesarean delivery on respiratory symptoms. There was no evidence for an interaction between breastfeeding and maternal atopy, number of older siblings, child care attendance, or particulate matter <10 μg. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the risk-specific effect of breastfeeding on respiratory symptoms in early life using the comprehensive time-series approach.

Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.

Detecting offsets in GPS time series: first results from the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment

The accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series is degraded by the presence of offsets. To assess the effectiveness of methods that detect and remove these offsets, we designed and managed the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment. We simulated time series that mimicked realistic GPS data consisting of a velocity component, offsets, white and flicker noises (1/f spectrum noises) composed in an additive model. The data set was made available to the GPS analysis community without revealing the offsets, and several groups conducted blind tests with a range of detection approaches. The results show that, at present, manual methods (where offsets are hand picked) almost always give better results than automated or semi‒automated methods (two automated methods give quite similar velocity bias as the best manual solutions). For instance, the fifth percentile range (5% to 95%) in velocity bias for automated approaches is equal to 4.2 mm/year (most commonly ±0.4 mm/yr from the truth), whereas it is equal to 1.8 mm/yr for the manual solutions (most commonly 0.2 mm/yr from the truth). The magnitude of offsets detectable by manual solutions is smaller than for automated solutions, with the smallest detectable offset for the best manual and automatic solutions equal to 5 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Assuming the simulated time series noise levels are representative of real GPS time series, robust geophysical interpretation of individual site velocities lower than 0.2–0.4 mm/yr is therefore certainly not robust, although a limit of nearer 1 mm/yr would be a more conservative choice. Further work to improve offset detection in GPS coordinates time series is required before we can routinely interpret sub‒mm/yr velocities for single GPS stations.

The Effect Of Misleading Prior Information On The Subjective Visual Vertical

When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year. RESULTS A total of 34,706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20,624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation. CONCLUSIONS Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Everolimus augments the effects of sorafenib in a syngeneic orthotopic model of hepatocellular carcinoma

Sorafenib targets the Raf/mitogen-activated protein kinase, VEGF, and platelet-derived growth factor pathways and prolongs survival patients in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Everolimus inhibits the mammalian target of rapamycin, a kinase overactive in HCC. To investigate whether the antitumor effects of these agents are additive, we compared a combined and sequential treatment regimen of everolimus and sorafenib with monotherapy. After hepatic implantation of Morris Hepatoma (MH) cells, rats were randomly allocated to everolimus (5 mg/kg, 2×/week), sorafenib (7.5 mg/kg/d), combined everolimus and sorafenib, sequential sorafenib (2 weeks) then everolimus (3 weeks), or control groups. MRI quantified tumor volumes. Erk1/2, 4E-BP1, and their phosphorylated forms were quantified by immunoblotting. Angiogenesis was assessed in vitro by aortic ring and tube formation assays, and in vivo with Vegf-a mRNA and vascular casts. After 35 days, tumor volumes were reduced by 60%, 85%, and 55%, relative to controls, in everolimus, the combination, and sequential groups, respectively (P < 0.01). Survival was longest in the combination group (P < 0.001). Phosphorylation of 4E-BP1 and Erk1/2 decreased after everolimus and sorafenib, respectively. Angiogenesis decreased after all treatments (P < 0.05), although sorafenib increased Vegf-a mRNA in liver tumors. Vessel sprouting was abundant in control tumors, lower after sorafenib, and absent after the combination. Intussusceptive angiogenic transluminal pillars failed to coalesce after the combination. Combined treatment with everolimus and sorafenib exerts a stronger antitumoral effect on MH tumors than monotherapy. Everolimus retains antitumoral properties when administered sequentially after sorafenib. This supports the clinical use of everolimus in HCC, both in combination with sorafenib or after sorafenib.

Synchrotron X-ray interlaced microbeams suppress paroxysmal oscillations in neuronal networks initiating generalized epilepsy

Radiotherapy has shown some efficacy for epilepsies but the insufficient confinement of the radiation dose to the pathological target reduces its indications. Synchrotron-generated X-rays overcome this limitation and allow the delivery of focalized radiation doses to discrete brain volumes via interlaced arrays of microbeams (IntMRT). Here, we used IntMRT to target brain structures involved in seizure generation in a rat model of absence epilepsy (GAERS). We addressed the issue of whether and how synchrotron radiotherapeutic treatment suppresses epileptic activities in neuronal networks. IntMRT was used to target the somatosensory cortex (S1Cx), a region involved in seizure generation in the GAERS. The antiepileptic mechanisms were investigated by recording multisite local-field potentials and the intracellular activity of irradiated S1Cx pyramidal neurons in vivo. MRI and histopathological images displayed precise and sharp dose deposition and revealed no impairment of surrounding tissues. Local-field potentials from behaving animals demonstrated a quasi-total abolition of epileptiform activities within the target. The irradiated S1Cx was unable to initiate seizures, whereas neighboring non-irradiated cortical and thalamic regions could still produce pathological oscillations. In vivo intracellular recordings showed that irradiated pyramidal neurons were strongly hyperpolarized and displayed a decreased excitability and a reduction of spontaneous synaptic activities. These functional alterations explain the suppression of large-scale synchronization within irradiated cortical networks. Our work provides the first post-irradiation electrophysiological recordings of individual neurons. Altogether, our data are a critical step towards understanding how X-ray radiation impacts neuronal physiology and epileptogenic processes.

Missing C-terminal filaggrin expression, NFkappaB activation and hyperproliferation identify the dog as a putative model to study epidermal dysfunction in atopic dermatitis

Filaggrin loss-of-function mutations resulting in C-terminal protein truncations are strong predisposing factors in human atopic dermatitis (AD). To assess the possibility of similar truncations in canine AD, an exclusion strategy was designed on 16 control and 18 AD dogs of various breeds. Comparative immunofluorescence microscopy was performed with an antibody raised against the canine filaggrin C-terminus and a commercial N-terminal antibody. Concurrent with human AD-like features such as generalized NFKB activation and hyperproliferation, four distinctive filaggrin expression patterns were identified in non-lesional skin. It was found that 10/18 AD dogs exhibited an identical pattern for both antibodies with comparable (category I, 3/18) or reduced (category II, 7/18) expression to that of controls. In contrast, 4/18 dogs displayed aberrant large vesicles revealed by the C-terminal but not the N-terminal antibody (category III), while 4/18 showed a control-like N-terminal expression but lacked the C-terminal protein (category IV). The missing C-terminal filaggrin in category IV strongly points towards loss-of function mutations in 4/18 (22%) of all AD dogs analysed.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Inhibition of mTOR in combination with doxorubicin in an experimental model of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is resistant to chemotherapy. We reported that sirolimus, an mTOR inhibitor, has antiangiogenic properties in HCC. Since antiangiogenic therapy may enhance chemotherapy effects, we tested the antitumorigenic properties of sirolimus combined with doxorubicin in experimental HCC. METHODS: Morris Hepatoma (MH) cells were implanted into livers of syngeneic rats. Animals were assigned to sirolimus, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin, both combined or control groups. Tumoral growth was followed by MRI. Antiangiogenic effects were assessed by CD31 immunostaining and capillary tube formation assays. Cell proliferation was monitored in vitro by thymidine incorporation. Expression of p21 and phosphorylated MAPKAP kinase-2 was quantified by immunoblotting. RESULTS: Animals treated with the combination developed smaller tumors with decreased tumor microvessel density compared to animals that received monotherapies. In vitro, inhibition of mTOR further impaired capillary formation in the presence of doxorubicin. Doxorubicin reduced endothelial cell proliferation; inhibition of mTOR accentuated this effect. Doxorubicin stimulated p21 expression and the phosphorylation of MAPKAP kinase-2 in endothelial cells. Addition of mTOR inhibitor down-regulated p21, but did not decrease MAPKAP kinase-2 phosphorylation. CONCLUSIONS: Sirolimus has additive antitumoral and antiangiogenic effects when administered with doxorubicin. These findings offer a rationale for combining mTOR inhibitors with chemotherapy in HCC treatment.