Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches

Competing water demands for household consumption as well as the production of food, energy, and other uses pose challenges for water supply and sustainable development in many parts of the world. Designing creative strategies and learning processes for sustainable water governance is thus of prime importance. While this need is uncontested, suitable approaches still have to be found. In this article we present and evaluate a conceptual approach to scenario building aimed at transdisciplinary learning for sustainable water governance. The approach combines normative, explorative, and participatory scenario elements. This combination allows for adequate consideration of stakeholders’ and scientists’ systems, target, and transformation knowledge. Application of the approach in the MontanAqua project in the Swiss Alps confirmed its high potential for co-producing new knowledge and establishing a meaningful and deliberative dialogue between all actors involved. The iterative and combined approach ensured that stakeholders’ knowledge was adequately captured, fed into scientific analysis, and brought back to stakeholders in several cycles, thereby facilitating learning and co-production of new knowledge relevant for both stakeholders and scientists. However, the approach also revealed a number of constraints, including the enormous flexibility required of stakeholders and scientists in order for them to truly engage in the co-production of new knowledge. Overall, the study showed that shifts from strategic to communicative action are possible in an environment of mutual trust. This ultimately depends on creating conditions of interaction that place scientists’ and stakeholders’ knowledge on an equal footing.

Validierung einer deutschsprachigen Version des Career Futures Inventory (CFI): Berufliche Anpassungsfähigkeit, beruflicher Optimismus, Arbeitsmarktwissen und Berufserfolg

Das Career Futures Inventory (CFI; Rottingaus, Day & Borgen, 2005) erfasst die drei laufbahnbezogenen Zukunftsfaktoren career adaptability (Berufliche Anpassungsfähigkeit), career optimism (Beruflicher Optimismus) und knowledge of job market (Arbeitsmarktwissen). Die Ziele dieser Studie waren (a) eine deutschsprachige Version des CFIs zu konstruieren und (b) an zwei Stichproben mit Erwerbstätigen mittels (c) unterschiedlicher Indikatoren des Berufserfolgs und anhand von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften zu validieren. Es konnte in beiden Stichproben (N1 = 153; N2 = 110) die 3-faktorielle Struktur des CFIs nachgewiesen werden. Zudem konnten Annahmen zur konvergenten und diskriminanten Validität in beiden Stichproben bestätigt werden, da die CFI-Faktoren in erwarteter Richtung mit Berufserfolg (z. B. Beförderungen, Karrierezufriedenheit) bzw. Persönlichkeitseigenschaften (d. h. Big Five) korrelierten bzw. nicht korrelierten. Eine Analyse der inkrementellen Validität zeigte, dass Arbeitsmarktwissen zusätzliche Varianz beim Gehalt über Kontrollvariablen und Persönlichkeit hinaus erklärte. Hinsichtlich Karrierezufriedenheit war dies für beruflichen Optimismus der Fall. Diese Validierungsstudie ermöglicht den Einsatz des CFIs im deutschsprachigen Raum.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.