A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or “business as usual” and SRES B1 or “local utopia.” We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modeling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.

Improved predictions for μ\to e conversion in nuclei and Higgs-induced lepton flavor violation

Compared to μ→eγ and μ→eee, the process μ→e conversion in nuclei receives enhanced contributions from Higgs-induced lepton flavor violation. Upcoming μ→e conversion experiments with drastically increased sensitivity will be able to put extremely stringent bounds on Higgs-mediated μ→e transitions. We point out that the theoretical uncertainties associated with these Higgs effects, encoded in the couplings of quark scalar operators to the nucleon, can be accurately assessed using our recently developed approach based on SU(2) chiral perturbation theory that cleanly separates two- and three-flavor observables. We emphasize that with input from lattice QCD for the coupling to strangeness fNs, hadronic uncertainties are appreciably reduced compared to the traditional approach where fNs is determined from the pion-nucleon σ term by means of an SU(3) relation. We illustrate this point by considering Higgs-mediated lepton flavor violation in the standard model supplemented with higher-dimensional operators, the two-Higgs-doublet model with generic Yukawa couplings, and the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Furthermore, we compare bounds from present and future μ→e conversion and μ→eγ experiments.