Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Differences in Soil Fungal Communities between European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Dominated Forests Are Related to Soil and Understory Vegetation

Fungi are important members of soil microbial communities with a crucial role in biogeochemical processes. Although soil fungi are known to be highly diverse, little is known about factors influencing variations in their diversity and community structure among forests dominated by the same tree species but spread over different regions and under different managements. We analyzed the soil fungal diversity and community composition of managed and unmanaged European beech dominated forests located in three German regions, the Schwäbische Alb in Southwestern, the Hainich-Dün in Central and the Schorfheide Chorin in the Northeastern Germany, using internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA pyrotag sequencing. Multiple sequence quality filtering followed by sequence data normalization revealed 1655 fungal operational taxonomic units. Further analysis based on 722 abundant fungal OTUs revealed the phylum Basidiomycota to be dominant (54%) and its community to comprise 71.4% of ectomycorrhizal taxa. Fungal community structure differed significantly (p≤0.001) among the three regions and was characterized by non-random fungal OTUs co-occurrence. Soil parameters, herbaceous understory vegetation, and litter cover affected fungal community structure. However, within each study region we found no difference in fungal community structure between management types. Our results also showed region specific significant correlation patterns between the dominant ectomycorrhizal fungal genera. This suggests that soil fungal communities are region-specific but nevertheless composed of functionally diverse and complementary taxa.

Counterbalancing effects of competition for resources and facilitation against grazing in alpine snowbed communities

Alpine snowbeds are habitats where the major limiting factors for plant growth are herbivory and a small time window for growth due to late snowmelt. Despite these limitations, snowbed vegetation usually forms a dense carpet of palatable plants due to favourable abiotic conditions for plant growth within the short growing season. These environmental characteristics make snowbeds particularly interesting to study the interplay of facilitation and competition. We hypothesised an interplay between resource competition and facilitation against herbivory. Further, we investigated whether these predicted neighbour effects were species-specific and/or dependent on ontogeny, and whether the balance of positive and negative plant–plant interactions shifted along a snowmelt gradient. We determined the neighbour effects by means of neighbour removal experiments along the snowmelt gradient, and linear mixed model analyses. The results showed that the effects of neighbour removal were weak but generally consistent among species and snowmelt dates, and depended on whether biomass production or survival was considered. Higher total biomass and increased fruiting in removal plots indicated that plants competed for nutrients, water, and light, thereby supporting the hypothesis of prevailing competition for resources in snowbeds. However, the presence of neighbours reduced herbivory and thereby also facilitated survival. For plant growth the facilitative effects against herbivores in snowbeds counterbalanced competition for resources, leading to a weak negative net effect. Overall the neighbour effects were not species-specific and did not change with snowmelt date. Our finding of counterbalancing effects of competition and facilitation within a plant community is of special theoretical value for species distribution models and can explain the success of models that give primary importance to abiotic factors and tend to overlook interrelations between biotic and abiotic effects on plants.

Candida species distribution and antifungal susceptibility testing according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing and new vs. old Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute clinical breakpoints: a 6-year prospective candidaemia survey from the fungal infection network of Switzerland

We analyzed the species distribution of Candida blood isolates (CBIs), prospectively collected between 2004 and 2009 within FUNGINOS, and compared their antifungal susceptibility according to clinical breakpoints defined by the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) in 2013, and the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) in 2008 (old CLSI breakpoints) and 2012 (new CLSI breakpoints). CBIs were tested for susceptiblity to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin by microtitre broth dilution (Sensititre® YeastOne™ test panel). Of 1090 CBIs, 675 (61.9%) were C. albicans, 191 (17.5%) C. glabrata, 64 (5.9%) C. tropicalis, 59 (5.4%) C. parapsilosis, 33 (3%) C. dubliniensis, 22 (2%) C. krusei and 46 (4.2%) rare Candida species. Independently of the breakpoints applied, C. albicans was almost uniformly (>98%) susceptible to all three antifungal agents. In contrast, the proportions of fluconazole- and voriconazole-susceptible C. tropicalis and F-susceptible C. parapsilosis were lower according to EUCAST/new CLSI breakpoints than to the old CLSI breakpoints. For caspofungin, non-susceptibility occurred mainly in C. krusei (63.3%) and C. glabrata (9.4%). Nine isolates (five C. tropicalis, three C. albicans and one C. parapsilosis) were cross-resistant to azoles according to EUCAST breakpoints, compared with three isolates (two C. albicans and one C. tropicalis) according to new and two (2 C. albicans) according to old CLSI breakpoints. Four species (C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis) represented >90% of all CBIs. In vitro resistance to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin was rare among C. albicans, but an increase of non-susceptibile isolates was observed among C. tropicalis/C. parapsilosis for the azoles and C. glabrata/C. krusei for caspofungin according to EUCAST and new CLSI breakpoints compared with old CLSI breakpoints.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

Little evidence for release from herbivores as a driver of plant invasiveness from a multi-species herbivore-removal experiment

Enemy release is frequently posed as a main driver of invasiveness of alien species. However, an experimental multi-species test examining performance and herbivory of invasive alien, non-invasive alien and native plant species in the presence and absence of natural enemies is lacking. In a common garden experiment in Switzerland, we manipulated exposure of seven alien invasive, eight alien non-invasive and fourteen native species from six taxonomic groups to natural enemies (invertebrate herbivores), by applying a pesticide treatment under two different nutrient levels. We assessed biomass production, herbivore damage and the major herbivore taxa on plants. Across all species, plants gained significantly greater biomass under pesticide treatment. However, invasive, non-invasive and native species did not differ in their biomass response to pesticide treatment at either nutrient level. The proportion of leaves damaged on invasive species was significantly lower compared to native species, but not when compared to non-invasive species. However, the difference was lost when plant size was accounted for. There were no differences between invasive, non-invasive and native species in herbivore abundance. Our study offers little support for invertebrate herbivore release as a driver of plant invasiveness, but suggests that future enemy release studies should account for differences in plant size among species.

Bacteria causing bacteremia in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia – species distribution and susceptibility patterns

PURPOSE Infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in pediatric cancer patients. The aim of this study was to establish the microbiological spectrum and the susceptibility patterns of bacteremia-causing bacteria in pediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropenia in relation to the use of prophylactic and empirical antibiotics. METHODS We analyzed positive blood cultures of pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia between 2004 and 2011 in Groningen and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and in Bern (Switzerland), using different antibiotic prophylactic and empirical regimens. RESULTS A total of 156 patients with 202 bacteremias, due to 248 bacteria species, were enrolled. The majority (73%) of bacteremias were caused by Gram-positive bacteria. Gram-negative bacteria, especially Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were observed significantly more often in Bern, where no fluoroquinolone prophylaxis was used. Ciprofloxacin-resistant bacteria were cultured more often from patients who did receive ciprofloxacin prophylaxis, compared to the patients who did not (57 versus 11%, p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Gram-positive bacteria predominated in this study. We showed that the use of prophylactic antibiotics in pediatric cancer patients was associated with increased resistance rates, which needs further study. The strategy for empiric antimicrobial therapy for febrile neutropenia should be adapted to local antibiotic resistance patterns.

Isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers for the deep-sea shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea)

Background: The shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes Bate, 1888 is found in the deep sea around Antarctica and sub-Antarctic islands. Previous studies on mitochondrial data and species distribution models provided evidence for a homogenous circum-Antarctic population of N. lanceopes. However, to analyze the fine-scale population genetic structure and to examine influences of abiotic environmental conditions on population composition and genetic diversity, a set of fast evolving nuclear microsatellite markers is required. Findings: We report the isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers from the Antarctic deep-sea shrimp species Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea). Microsatellite markers were screened in 55 individuals from different locations around the Antarctic continent. All markers were polymorphic with 9 to 25 alleles per locus. The observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.545 to 0.927 and the expected heterozygosity from 0.549 to 0.934. Conclusions: The reported markers provide a novel tool to study genetic structure and diversity in Nematocarcinus lanceopes populations in the Southern Ocean and monitor effects of ongoing climate change in the region on the populations inhabiting these.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Biodiversity Effects on Plant Stoichiometry

In the course of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning debate, the issue of multifunctionality of species communities has recently become a major focus. Elemental stoichiometry is related to a variety of processes reflecting multiple plant responses to the biotic and abiotic environment. It can thus be expected that the diversity of a plant assemblage alters community level plant tissue chemistry. We explored elemental stoichiometry in aboveground plant tissue (ratios of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) and its relationship to plant diversity in a 5-year study in a large grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment). Species richness and functional group richness affected community stoichiometry, especially by increasing C:P and N:P ratios. The primacy of either species or functional group richness effects depended on the sequence of testing these terms, indicating that both aspects of richness were congruent and complementary to expected strong effects of legume presence and grass presence on plant chemical composition. Legumes and grasses had antagonistic effects on C:N (−27.7% in the presence of legumes, +32.7% in the presence of grasses). In addition to diversity effects on mean ratios, higher species richness consistently decreased the variance of chemical composition for all elemental ratios. The diversity effects on plant stoichiometry has several non-exclusive explanations: The reduction in variance can reflect a statistical averaging effect of species with different chemical composition or a optimization of nutrient uptake at high diversity, leading to converging ratios at high diversity. The shifts in mean ratios potentially reflect higher allocation to stem tissue as plants grew taller at higher richness. By showing a first link between plant diversity and stoichiometry in a multiyear experiment, our results indicate that losing plant species from grassland ecosystems will lead to less reliable chemical composition of forage for herbivorous consumers and belowground litter input.

Species interactions and random dispersal rather than habitat filtering drive community assembly during early plant succession

Theory on plant succession predicts a temporal increase in the complexity of spatial community structure and of competitive interactions: initially random occurrences of early colonising species shift towards spatially and competitively structured plant associations in later successional stages. Here we use long-term data on early plant succession in a German post mining area to disentangle the importance of random colonisation, habitat filtering, and competition on the temporal and spatial development of plant community structure. We used species co-occurrence analysis and a recently developed method for assessing competitive strength and hierarchies (transitive versus intransitive competitive orders) in multispecies communities. We found that species turnover decreased through time within interaction neighbourhoods, but increased through time outside interaction neighbourhoods. Successional change did not lead to modular community structure. After accounting for species richness effects, the strength of competitive interactions and the proportion of transitive competitive hierarchies increased through time. Although effects of habitat filtering were weak, random colonization and subsequent competitive interactions had strong effects on community structure. Because competitive strength and transitivity were poorly correlated with soil characteristics, there was little evidence for context dependent competitive strength associated with intransitive competitive hierarchies.

Land use imperils plant and animal community stability through changes in asynchrony rather than diversity

Human land use may detrimentally affect biodiversity, yet long-term stability of species communities is vital for maintaining ecosystem functioning. Community stability can be achieved by higher species diversity (portfolio effect), higher asynchrony across species (insurance hypothesis) and higher abundance of populations. However, the relative importance of these stabilizing pathways and whether they interact with land use in real-world ecosystems is unknown. We monitored inter-annual fluctuations of 2,671 plant, arthropod, bird and bat species in 300 sites from three regions. Arthropods show 2.0-fold and birds 3.7-fold higher community fluctuations in grasslands than in forests, suggesting a negative impact of forest conversion. Land-use intensity in forests has a negative net impact on stability of bats and in grasslands on birds. Our findings demonstrate that asynchrony across species—much more than species diversity alone—is the main driver of variation in stability across sites and requires more attention in sustainable management.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.