Ground-based and airborne in-situ measurements of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic aerosol plume in Switzerland in spring 2010

The volcanic aerosol plume resulting from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland in April and May 2010 was detected in clear layers above Switzerland during two periods (17–19 April 2010 and 16–19 May 2010). In-situ measurements of the airborne volcanic plume were performed both within ground-based monitoring networks and with a research aircraft up to an altitude of 6000 m a.s.l. The wide range of aerosol and gas phase parameters studied at the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.) allowed for an in-depth characterization of the detected volcanic aerosol. Both the data from the Jungfraujoch and the aircraft vertical profiles showed a consistent volcanic ash mode in the aerosol volume size distribution with a mean optical diameter around 3 ± 0.3 μm. These particles were found to have an average chemical composition very similar to the trachyandesite-like composition of rock samples collected near the volcano. Furthermore, chemical processing of volcanic sulfur dioxide into sulfate clearly contributed to the accumulation mode of the aerosol at the Jungfraujoch. The combination of these in-situ data and plume dispersion modeling results showed that a significant portion of the first volcanic aerosol plume reaching Switzerland on 17 April 2010 did not reach the Jungfraujoch directly, but was first dispersed and diluted in the planetary boundary layer. The maximum PM10 mass concentrations at the Jungfraujoch reached 30 μgm−3 and 70 μgm−3 (for 10-min mean values) duri ng the April and May episode, respectively. Even low-altitude monitoring stations registered up to 45 μgm−3 of volcanic ash related PM10 (Basel, Northwestern Switzerland, 18/19 April 2010). The flights with the research aircraft on 17 April 2010 showed one order of magnitude higher number concentrations over the northern Swiss plateau compared to the Jungfraujoch, and a mass concentration of 320 (200–520) μgm−3 on 18 May 2010 over the northwestern Swiss plateau. The presented data significantly contributed to the time-critical assessment of the local ash layer properties during the initial eruption phase. Furthermore, dispersion models benefited from the detailed information on the volcanic aerosol size distribution and its chemical composition.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Flux and resident injection in gaseous advection experiments

The occurrence of gaseous pollutants in soils has stimulated many experimental activities, including forced ventilation in the field as well as laboratory transport experiments with gases. The dispersion coefficient in advective-dispersive gas phase transport is often dominated by molecular diffusion, which leads to a large overall dispersivity gamma. Under such conditions it is important to distinguish between flux and resident modes of solute injection and detection. The influence of the inlet type oil the macroscopic injection mode was tested in two series of column experiments with gases at different mean flow velocities nu. First we compared infinite resident and flux injections, and second, semi-infinite resident and flux injections. It is shown that the macroscopically apparent injection condition depends on the geometry of the inlet section. A reduction of the cross-sectional area of the inlet relative to that of the column is very effective in excluding the diffusive solute input, thus allowing us to use the solutions for a flux Injection also at rather low mean flow velocities nu. If the whole cross section of a column is exposed to a large reservoir like that of ambient air, a semi-infinite resident injection is established, which can be distinguished from a flux injection even at relatively high velocities nu, depending on the mechanical dispersivity of the porous medium.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.