Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD2005, AD1891, AD1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Darkcoloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000-4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

How does spatial extent of fMRI datasets affect independent component analysis decomposition?

Spatial independent component analysis (sICA) of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series can generate meaningful activation maps and associated descriptive signals, which are useful to evaluate datasets of the entire brain or selected portions of it. Besides computational implications, variations in the input dataset combined with the multivariate nature of ICA may lead to different spatial or temporal readouts of brain activation phenomena. By reducing and increasing a volume of interest (VOI), we applied sICA to different datasets from real activation experiments with multislice acquisition and single or multiple sensory-motor task-induced blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal sources with different spatial and temporal structure. Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) methodology for accuracy evaluation and multiple regression analysis as benchmark, we compared sICA decompositions of reduced and increased VOI fMRI time-series containing auditory, motor and hemifield visual activation occurring separately or simultaneously in time. Both approaches yielded valid results; however, the results of the increased VOI approach were spatially more accurate compared to the results of the decreased VOI approach. This is consistent with the capability of sICA to take advantage of extended samples of statistical observations and suggests that sICA is more powerful with extended rather than reduced VOI datasets to delineate brain activity.

Erosion Damage Mapping: Assessing Current Soil Erosion Damage in Switzerland

Within the scope of a comprehensive assessment of the degree of soil erosion in Switzerland, common methods have been used in the past including test plot measurements, artificial rainfall simulation, and erosion modelling. In addition, mapping guidelines for all visible erosion features have been developed since the 1970s and are being successfully applied in many research and soil conservation projects. Erosion damage has been continuously mapped over a period of 9 years in a test region in the central Bernese plateau. In 2005, two additional study areas were added. The present paper assesses the data gathered and provides a comparison of the three study areas within a period of one year (from October 2005 to October 2006), focusing on the on-site impacts of soil erosion. During this period, about 11 erosive rainfall events occurred. Average soil loss rates mapped at each study site amounted to 0.7 t ha-1, 1.2 t ha-1 and 2.3 t ha-1, respectively. About one fourth of the total arable land showed visible erosion damage. Maximum soil losses of about 70 t ha-1 occurred on individual farm plots. Average soil erosion patterns are widely used to underline the severity of an erosion problem (e.g. impacts on water bodies). But since severe rainfall events, wheel tracks, headlands, and other “singularities” often cause high erosion rates, analysis of extreme erosion patterns such as maximum values led to a more differentiated understanding and appropriate conclusions for planning and design of soil protection measures. The study contains an assessment of soil erosion in Switzerland, emphasizing questions about extent, frequency and severity. At the same time, the effects of different types of land management are investigated in the field, aiming at the development of meaningful impact indicators of (un-)sustainable agriculture/soil erosion risk as well as the validation of erosion models. The results illustrate that conservation agriculture including no-till, strip tillage and in-mulch seeding plays an essential role in reducing soil loss as compared to conventional tillage.

Inverse relationship between fractionated electrograms and atrial fibrosis in persistent atrial fibrillation: combined magnetic resonance imaging and high-density mapping

OBJECTIVES This study sought to evaluate the relationship between fibrosis imaged by delayed-enhancement (DE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and atrial electrograms (Egms) in persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). BACKGROUND Atrial fractionated Egms are strongly related to slow anisotropic conduction. Their relationship to atrial fibrosis has not yet been investigated. METHODS Atrial high-resolution MRI of 18 patients with persistent AF (11 long-lasting persistent AF) was registered with mapping geometry (NavX electro-anatomical system (version 8.0, St. Jude Medical, St. Paul, Minnesota)). DE areas were categorized as dense or patchy, depending on their DE content. Left atrial Egms during AF were acquired using a high-density, 20-pole catheter (514 ± 77 sites/map). Fractionation, organization/regularity, local mean cycle length (CL), and voltage were analyzed with regard to DE. RESULTS Patients with long-lasting persistent versus persistent AF had larger left atrial (LA) surface area (134 ± 38 cm(2) vs. 98 ± 9 cm(2), p = 0.02), a higher amount of atrial DE (70 ± 16 cm(2) vs. 49 ± 10 cm(2), p = 0.01), more complex fractionated atrial Egm (CFAE) extent (54 ± 16 cm(2) vs. 28 ± 15 cm(2), p = 0.02), and a shorter baseline AF CL (147 ± 10 ms vs. 182 ± 14 ms, p = 0.01). Continuous CFAE (CFEmean [NavX algorithm that quantifies Egm fractionation] <80 ms) occupied 38 ± 19% of total LA surface area. Dense DE was detected at the left posterior left atrium. In contrast, the right posterior left atrium contained predominantly patchy DE. Most CFAE (48 ± 14%) occurred at non-DE LA sites, followed by 41 ± 12% CFAE at patchy DE and 11 ± 6% at dense DE regions (p = 0.005 and p = 0.008, respectively); 19 ± 6% CFAE sites occurred at border zones of dense DE. Egms were less fractionated, with longer CL and lower voltage at dense DE versus non-DE regions: CFEmean: 97 ms versus 76 ms, p < 0.0001; local CL: 153 ms versus 143 ms, p < 0.0001; mean voltage: 0.63 mV versus 0.86 mV, p < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS Atrial fibrosis as defined by DE MRI is associated with slower and more organized electrical activity but with lower voltage than healthy atrial areas. Ninety percent of continuous CFAE sites occur at non-DE and patchy DE LA sites. These findings are important when choosing the ablation strategy in persistent AF.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Low-threshold monopolar motor mapping for resection of lesions in motor eloquent areas in children and adolescents

Object Resection of lesions close to the primary motor cortex (M1) and the corticospinal tract (CST) is generally regarded as high-risk surgery due to reported rates of postoperative severe deficits of up to 50%. The authors' objective was to determine the feasibility and safety of low-threshold motor mapping and its efficacy for increasing the extent of lesion resection in the proximity of M1 and the CST in children and adolescents. Methods The authors analyzed 8 consecutive pediatric patients in whom they performed 9 resections for lesions within or close (≤ 10 mm) to M1 and/or the CST. Monopolar high-frequency motor mapping with train-of-five stimuli (pulse duration 500 μsec, interstimulus interval 4.0 msec, frequency 250 Hz) was used. The motor threshold was defined as the minimal stimulation intensity that elicited motor evoked potentials (MEPs) from target muscles (amplitude > 30 μV). Resection was performed toward M1 and the CST at sites negative to 1- to 3-mA high-frequency train-of-five stimulation. Results The M1 was identified through high-frequency train-of-five via application of varying low intensities. The lowest motor thresholds after final resection ranged from 1 to 9 mA in 8 cases and up to 18 mA in 1 case, indicating proximity to motor neurons. Intraoperative electroencephalography documented an absence of seizures during all surgeries. Two transient neurological deficits were observed, but there were no permanent deficits. Postoperative imaging revealed complete resection in 8 patients and a very small remnant (< 0.175 cm(3)) in 1 patient. Conclusions High-frequency train-of-five with a minimal threshold of 1-3 mA is a feasible and safe procedure for resections in the proximity of the CST. Thus, low-threshold motor mapping might help to expand the area for safe resection in pediatric patients with lesions located within the precentral gyrus and close to the CST, and may be regarded as a functional navigational tool. The additional use of continuous MEP monitoring serves as a safety feedback for the functional integrity of the CST, especially because the true excitability threshold in children is unknown.

Intraoperative monopolar mapping during 5-ALA-guided resections of glioblastomas adjacent to motor eloquent areas: evaluation of resection rates and neurological outcome.

OBJECT Resection of glioblastoma adjacent to motor cortex or subcortical motor pathways carries a high risk of both incomplete resection and postoperative motor deficits. Although the strategy of maximum safe resection is widely accepted, the rates of complete resection of enhancing tumor (CRET) and the exact causes for motor deficits (mechanical vs vascular) are not always known. The authors report the results of their concept of combining monopolar mapping and 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA)-guided surgery in patients with glioblastoma adjacent to eloquent tissue. METHODS The authors prospectively studied 72 consecutive patients who underwent 5-ALA-guided surgery for a glioblastoma adjacent to the corticospinal tract (CST; < 10 mm) with continuous dynamic monopolar motor mapping (short-train interstimulus interval 4.0 msec, pulse duration 500 μsec) coupled to an acoustic motor evoked potential (MEP) alarm. The extent of resection was determined based on early (< 48 hours) postoperative MRI findings. Motor function was assessed 1 day after surgery, at discharge, and at 3 months. RESULTS Five patients were excluded because of nonadherence to protocol; thus, 67 patients were evaluated. The lowest motor threshold reached during individual surgery was as follows (motor threshold, number of patients): > 20 mA, n = 8; 11-20 mA, n = 13; 6-10 mA, n = 10; 4-5 mA, n = 13; and 1-3 mA, n = 23. Motor deterioration at postsurgical Day 1 and at discharge occurred in 30% (n = 20) and 10% (n = 7) of patients, respectively. At 3 months, 3 patients (4%) had a persisting postoperative motor deficit, 2 caused by vascular injury and 1 by mechanical injury. The rates of intra- and postoperative seizures were 1% and 0%, respectively. Complete resection of enhancing tumor was achieved in 73% of patients (49/67) despite proximity to the CST. CONCLUSIONS A rather high rate of CRET can be achieved in glioblastomas in motor eloquent areas via a combination of 5-ALA for tumor identification and intraoperative mapping for distinguishing between presumed and actual motor eloquent tissues. Continuous dynamic mapping was found to be a very ergonomic technique that localizes the motor tissue early and reliably.

Mapping tree density at a global scale

The global extent and distribution of forest trees is central to our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. We provide the first spatially continuous map of forest tree density at a global scale. This map reveals that the global number of trees is approximately 3.04 trillion, an order of magnitude higher than the previous estimate. Of these trees, approximately 1.39 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.61 trillion in temperate regions. Biome-level trends in tree density demonstrate the importance of climate and topography in controlling local tree densities at finer scales, as well as the overwhelming effect of humans across most of the world. Based on our projected tree densities, we estimate that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization.

Selective sampling during catastrophic disruption: Mapping the location of reaccumulated fragments in the original parent body

In this paper, we simulate numerically the catastrophic disruption of a large asteroid as a result of a collision with a smaller projectile and the subsequent reaccumulation of fragments as a result of their mutual gravitational attractions. We then investigate the original location within the parent body of the small pieces that eventually reaccumulate to form the largest offspring of the disruption as a function of the internal structure of the parent body. We consider four cases that may represent the internal structure of such a body (whose diameter is fixed at 250 km) in various early stages of the Solar System evolution: fully molten, half molten (i.e., a 26 km-deep outer layer of melt containing half of the mass), solid except a thin molten layer (8 km thick) centered at 10 km depth, and fully solid. The solid material has properties of basalt. We then focus on the three largest offspring that have enough reaccumulated pieces to consider. Our results indicate that the particles that eventually reaccumulate to form the largest reaccumulated bodies retain a memory of their original locations in the parent body. Most particles in each reaccumulated body are clustered from the same original region, even if their reaccumulations take place far away. The extent of the original region varies considerably depending on the internal structure of the parent. It seems to shrink with the solidity of the body. The fraction of particles coming from a given depth is computed for the four cases, which can give constraints on the internal structure of parent bodies of some meteorites. As one example, we consider the ureilites, which in some petrogenetic models are inferred to have formed at particular depths within their parent body. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.