Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.

Multi-colour FISH in oesophageal adenocarcinoma-predictors of prognosis independent of stage and grade.

BACKGROUND Oesophageal adenocarcinoma or Barrett's adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing in incidence and stratification of prognosis might improve disease management. Multi-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) investigating ERBB2, MYC, CDKN2A and ZNF217 has recently shown promising results for the diagnosis of dysplasia and cancer using cytological samples. METHODS To identify markers of prognosis we targeted four selected gene loci using multi-colour FISH applied to a tissue microarray containing 130 EAC samples. Prognostic predictors (P1, P2, P3) based on genomic copy numbers of the four loci were statistically assessed to stratify patients according to overall survival in combination with clinical data. RESULTS The best stratification into favourable and unfavourable prognoses was shown by P1, percentage of cells with less than two ZNF217 signals; P2, percentage of cells with fewer ERBB2- than ZNF217 signals; and P3, overall ratio of ERBB2-/ZNF217 signals. Median survival times for P1 were 32 vs 73 months, 28 vs 73 months for P2; and 27 vs 65 months for P3. Regarding each tumour grade P2 subdivided patients into distinct prognostic groups independently within each grade, with different median survival times of at least 35 months. CONCLUSIONS Cell signal number of the ERBB2 and ZNF217 loci showed independence from tumour stage and differentiation grade. The prognostic value of multi-colour FISH-assays is applicable to EAC and is superior to single markers.