Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Finite volume effects in chiral perturbation theory with twisted boundary conditions

We study the effects of a finite cubic volume with twisted boundary conditions on pseudoscalar mesons. We apply Chiral Perturbation Theory in the p-regime and introduce the twist by means of a constant vector field. The corrections of masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants and form factors are calculated at next-to-leading order. We detail the derivations and compare with results available in the literature. In some case there is disagreement due to a different treatment of new extra terms generated from the breaking of the cubic invariance. We advocate to treat such terms as renormalization terms of the twisting angles and reabsorb them in the on-shell conditions. We confirm that the corrections of masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants are related by means of chiral Ward identities. Furthermore, we show that the matrix elements of the scalar (resp. vector) form factor satisfies the Feynman–Hellman Theorem (resp. the Ward–Takahashi identity). To show the Ward–Takahashi identity we construct an effective field theory for charged pions which is invariant under electromagnetic gauge transformations and which reproduces the results obtained with Chiral Perturbation Theory at a vanishing momentum transfer. This generalizes considerations previously published for periodic boundary conditions to twisted boundary conditions. Another method to estimate the corrections in finite volume are asymptotic formulae. Asymptotic formulae were introduced by Lüscher and relate the corrections of a given physical quantity to an integral of a specific amplitude, evaluated in infinite volume. Here, we revise the original derivation of Lüscher and generalize it to finite volume with twisted boundary conditions. In some cases, the derivation involves complications due to extra terms generated from the breaking of the cubic invariance. We isolate such terms and treat them as renormalization terms just as done before. In that way, we derive asymptotic formulae for masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants and scalar form factors. At the same time, we derive also asymptotic formulae for renormalization terms. We apply all these formulae in combination with Chiral Perturbation Theory and estimate the corrections beyond next-to-leading order. We show that asymptotic formulae for masses, decay constants, pseudoscalar coupling constants are related by means of chiral Ward identities. A similar relation connects in an independent way asymptotic formulae for renormalization terms. We check these relations for charged pions through a direct calculation. To conclude, a numerical analysis quantifies the importance of finite volume corrections at next-to-leading order and beyond. We perform a generic Analysis and illustrate two possible applications to real simulations.

Improved detection of blood stream pathogens by real-time PCR in severe sepsis

Evaluation of the technical and diagnostic feasibility of commercial multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of blood stream infections in a cohort of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with severe sepsis, performed in addition to conventional blood cultures.

Segregation of species-specific male attractiveness in f(2) hybrid lake Malawi cichlid fish

Among the huge radiations of haplochromine cichlid fish in Lakes Malawi and Victoria, closely related species are often reproductively isolated via female mate choice although viable fertile hybrids can be produced when females are confined only with heterospecific males. We generated F(2) hybrid males from a cross between a pair of closely related sympatric cichlid fish from Lake Malawi. Laboratory mate choice experiments using microsatellite paternity analysis demonstrated that F(2) hybrid males differed significantly in their attractiveness to females of the two parental species, indicating heritable variation in traits involved in mate choice that may contribute to reproductive isolation between these species. We found no significant correlation between male mating success and any measurement of male colour pattern. A simple quantitative genetic model of reproductive isolation suggests that there may be as few as two chromosomal regions controlling species-specific attractiveness. We propose that adaptive radiation of Lake Malawi cichlids could be facilitated by the presence of genes with major effects on mate choice and reproductive isolation.

Point-of-care prothrombin time testing in paediatric intensive care: an observational study of the ease of use of two devices

Two major difficulties arise when taking blood samples in children: the challenge of venous access and the comparatively large amount of blood required.

Safety of endovascular treatment beyond the 6-h time window in 205 patients

Background and purpose Intra-arterial treatment (IAT) is effective when performed within 6 h of symptom onset in selected stroke patients (‘T < 6H’). Its safety and efficacy is unclear when the patient has had symptoms for more than 6 h (‘T > 6H’) or for an unknown time (unclear-onset stroke, UOS), or woke up with a stroke (wake-up stroke, WUS). In this study we compared the safety of IAT in these four patient groups. Methods Eight-hundred and fifty-nine patients treated with IAT were enrolled. The main outcome parameters were clinical outcome [excellent: modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0 or 1; or favorable: mRS 0–2] or mortality 3 months after treatment. Further outcome parameters were the rates of vessel recanalization, and cerebral and systemic hemorrhage. Results Six-hundred and fifty-four patients were treated before (T < 6H) and 205 after 6 h or an unknown time (128 T > 6H, 55 WUS and 22 UOS). NIHSS scores were higher in UOS patients than in T < 6H patients, vertebrobasilar occlusion was more common in T > 6H and UOS patients, and middle cerebral artery occlusions less common in T > 6H than in T < 6H patients. Other baseline characteristics were similar. There was no significant difference in clinical outcome and the rate of hemorrhage in multivariable regression analysis. Conclusions Clinical outcome of our four groups of patients was similar with no increase of hemorrhage rates in patients treated after awakening, after an unknown time or more than 6 h. Our preliminary data suggest that treatment of such patients may be performed safely. If confirmed in randomized trials, this would have major clinical implications.