40 resultados para fate and effect modelling

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

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Potential drug-drug interactions (PDDIs) might expand with new combination antiretroviral therapies (ART) and polypharmacy related to increasing age and comorbidities. We investigated the prevalence of comedications and PDDIs within a large HIV cohort, and their effect on ART efficacy and tolerability.

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Failing cerebral blood flow (CBF) autoregulation may contribute to cerebral damage after traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to describe the time course of CO(2)-dependent vasoreactivity, measured as CBF velocity in response to hyperventilation (vasomotor reactivity [VMR] index). We included 13 patients who had had severe TBI, 8 of whom received norepinephrine (NE) based on clinical indication. In these patients, measurements were also performed after dobutamine administration, with a goal of increasing cardiac output by 30%. Blood flow velocity was measured with transcranial Doppler ultrasound in both hemispheres. All patients except one had an abnormal VMR index in at least one hemisphere within the first 24 h after TBI. In those patients who did not receive catecholamines, mean VMR index recovered within the first 48 to 72 h. In contrast, in patients who received NE within the first 48 h period, VMR index did not recover on the second day. Cardiac output and mean CBF velocity increased significantly during dobutamine administration, but VMR index did not change significantly. In conclusion, CO(2) vasomotor reactivity was abnormal in the first 24 h after TBI in most of the patients, but recovered within 48 h in those patients who did not receive NE, in contrast to those eventually receiving the drug. Addition of dobutamine to NE had variable but overall insignificant effects on CO(2) vasomotor reactivity.

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Primary aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of our therapeutical management in patients with painful bladder syndrome (PBS)/interstitial cystitis (IC) on sexual function, quality of life and bladder symptoms using validated tools prospectively

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Epidemiologic, endoscopic, and pathophysiologic studies document the relationship between obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Increased body mass index and accumulation of visceral fat are associated with a two- to threefold increased risk of developing reflux symptoms and esophageal lesions. Given this association, many studies were designed to evaluate the outcome of reflux symptoms following conventional and surgical treatment of obesity. Among bariatric procedures, gastric sleeve and banded gastroplasty were shown to have no effect or even worsen reflux symptoms in the postoperative setting. Gastric banding improves reflux symptoms and findings (endoscopic and pH-measured distal esophageal acid exposure) in many patients, but is associated with de novo reflux symptoms or lesions in a considerable proportion of patients. To date, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is the most effective bariatric procedure that consistently leads to weight reduction and improvement of GERD symptoms in patients undergoing direct gastric bypass and among those converted from restrictive bariatric procedures to gastric bypass.

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With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. LAY ABSTRACT: Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here explains how a biopharmaceutical process FMEA can be conducted. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. With the help of this guideline, different details of the manufacturing process can be ranked according to their potential risks, and this can help pharmaceutical companies to identify aspects with high potential risks and to react accordingly to improve the safety of medicines.

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Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

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How the effects of biotic factors are moderated by abiotic factors, and their consequences for species interactions, is generally understudied in ecology. A key abiotic feature of forests is regular canopy disturbances that create temporary patches, or “gaps,” of above-average light availability. Co-occurring in lowland primary forest of Korup National Park (Cameroon), Microberlinia bisulcata and Tetraberlinia bifoliolata are locally dominant, ectomycorrhizal trees whose seeds share predator guilds in masting years. Here, we experimentally tested the impact of small mammal predators upon seedling abundance, growth, and survivorship. In 2007, we added a fixed density of seeds of each species to exclosures at 48 gap–understory locations across 82.5 ha within a large Microberlinia grove, and at 15 locations outside it. For both species, small mammals removed more seeds in gaps than in understory, whereas this was reversed for seeds killed by invertebrates. Nonetheless, Microberlinia lost twice as many seeds to small mammals, and more to invertebrates in exclosures, than Tetraberlinia, which was more prone to a pathogenic white fungus. After six weeks, both species had greater seedling establishment in gaps than understory, and in exclosures outside compared to exclosures inside the grove. In the subsequent two-year period, seedling growth and survivorship peaked in exclosures in gaps, but Microberlinia had more seedlings' stems clipped by animals than Tetraberlinia, and more than twice the percentage of leaf area damaged. Whereas Microberlinia seedling performance in gaps was inferior to Tetraberlinia inside the grove, outside it Microberlinia had reduced leaf damage, grew taller, and had many more leaves than Tetraberlinia. No evidence was found for “apparent mutualism” in the understory as seedling establishment of both species increased away from (>25 m) large stems of either species, pointing to “apparent competition” instead. In gaps, Microberlinia seedling establishment was lower near Tetraberlinia than conspecific adults because of context-dependent small mammal satiation. Stage-matrix analysis suggested that protecting Microberlinia from small mammals could increase its population growth rate by 0.06. In the light of prior research we conclude that small mammals and canopy gaps play an important role in promoting species coexistence in this forest, and that their strong interaction contributes to Microberlinia's currently very poor regeneration.

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Clinical application of injectable ceramic cement in comminuted fractures revealed penetration of the viscous paste into the joint space. Not much is known on the fate of this cement and its influence on articular tissues. The purpose of this experimental study was to assess these unknown alterations of joint tissues after intra-articular injection of cement in a rabbit knee. Observation periods were from 1 week up to 24 months, with three rabbits per group. Norian SRS cement was injected into one knee joint, the contralateral side receiving the same volume of Ringers' solution. Light microscopic evaluation of histologic sections was performed, investigating the appearance of the cement, inflammatory reactions, and degenerative changes of the articular surface. No signs of pronounced acute or chronic inflammation were visible. The injected cement was mainly found as a single particle, anterior to the cruciate ligaments. It became surrounded by synovial tissues within 4 weeks and showed signs of superficial resorption. In some specimens, bone formation was seen around the cement. Degeneration of the articular surface showed no differences between experimental and control side, and no changes over time became apparent. No major degenerative changes were induced by the injected cement. The prolonged presence of cement still seems to make it advisable to remove radiologically visible amounts from the joint space.

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Echicetin, a heterodimeric protein from the venom of Echis carinatus, binds to platelet glycoprotein Ib (GPIb) and so inhibits platelet aggregation or agglutination induced by various platelet agonists acting via GPIb. The amino acid sequence of the beta subunit of echicetin has been reported and found to belong to the recently identified snake venom subclass of the C-type lectin protein family. Echicetin alpha and beta subunits were purified. N-terminal sequence analysis provided direct evidence that the protein purified was echicetin. The paper presents the complete amino acid sequence of the alpha subunit and computer models of the alpha and beta subunits. The sequence of alpha echicetin is highly similar to the alpha and beta chains of various heterodimeric and homodimeric C-type lectins. Neither of the fully reduced and alkylated alpha or beta subunits of echicetin inhibited the platelet agglutination induced by von Willebrand factor-ristocetin or alpha-thrombin. Earlier reports about the inhibitory activity of reduced and alkylated echicetin beta subunit might have been due to partial reduction of the protein.

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IT has turned out to be a key factor for the purposes of gaining maturity in Business Process Management (BPM). This book presents a worldwide investigation that was conducted among companies from the ‘Forbes Global 2000’ list to explore the current usage of software throughout the BPM life cycle and to identify the companies’ requirements concerning process modelling. The responses from 130 companies indicate that, at the present time, it is mainly software for process description and analysis that is required, while process execution is supported by general software such as databases, ERP systems and office tools. The resulting complex system landscapes give rise to distinct requirements for BPM software, while the process modelling requirements can be equally satisfied by the most common languages (BPMN, UML, EPC).

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This longitudinal panel study investigated predictors of career adaptability development and its effect on development of sense of power and experience of life satisfaction among 330 Swiss eighth graders. A multivariate measure of career adaptability consisting of career choice readiness, planning, exploration, and confidence was applied. Based on Motivational Systems Theory four groups of predictors were assessed: positive emotional disposition, goal decidedness, capability beliefs and social context beliefs. Influence of gender, age, immigration background, parental educational level, and college-bound or vocational education plans were also assessed. Perceived social support and positive emotional disposition, non-immigration background, and continuing to vocational education were single significant predictors of more career adaptability development over the school year. Supporting the connection of career adaptability and positive youth development, increase in career adaptability over time predicted increase in sense of power and experience of life satisfaction.