Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Swiss Alps: a study of adaptive planning

The Swiss Alps will experience pronounced effects of climate change due to the combination of their latitudinal positioning, altitude and unique ecosystems, placing socio-economic stresses on alpine communities, many of which rely on seasonal tourism. Studies into tourism adaptation within the Swiss Alps have so far focused on the technical adaptation options of alpine stakeholders, rather than perceptions of adaptation to climate change at the operational and community level. This article investigates attitudes to adaptation in two alpine regions within Switzerland's well-established decentralized political framework, through semi-structured qualitative interviews. Stakeholders focused almost entirely on maintaining the status quo of winter tourism, through technical or marketing measures, with mixed attitudes towards climatic impacts. A matrix based on the relative internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of adaptation measures (a SWOT framework) was used to assess the measures and suggest how stakeholders could capitalize on the new opportunities thrown up by climate change to create a competitive advantage. A comprehensive and collaborative planning approach is vital to enable policy makers and stakeholders to maximize opportunities, minimize the adverse effects of climate change on the local economy, and develop inclusive adaptation measures that benefit the entire region in order to create more sustainable social, economic and environmental structures.

Macroevolutionary patterns in the diversification of parrots: effects of climate change, geological events and key innovations

Aim Parrots are thought to have originated on Gondwana during the Cretaceous. The initial split within crown group parrots separated the New Zealand taxa from the remaining extant species and was considered to coincide with the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana 82-85 Ma, assuming that the diversification of parrots was mainly shaped by vicariance. However, the distribution patterns of several extant parrot groups cannot be explained without invoking transoceanic dispersal, challenging this assumption. Here, we present a temporal and spatial framework for the diversification of parrots using external avian fossils as calibration points in order to evaluate the relative importance of the influences of past climate change, plate tectonics and ecological opportunity. Location Australasian, African, Indo-Malayan and Neotropical regions. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated using partial sequences of the nuclear genes c-mos, RAG-1 and Zenk of 75 parrot and 21 other avian taxa. Divergence dates and confidence intervals were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Biogeographic patterns were evaluated taking temporal connectivity between areas into account. We tested whether diversification remained constant over time and if some parrot groups were more species-rich than expected given their age. Results Crown group diversification of parrots started only about 58 Ma, in the Palaeogene, significantly later than previously thought. The Australasian lories and possibly also the Neotropical Arini were found to be unexpectedly species-rich. Diversification rates probably increased around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene, during two periods of major global climatic aberrations characterized by global cooling. Main conclusions The diversification of parrots was shaped by climatic and geological events as well as by key innovations. Initial vicariance events caused by continental break-up were followed by transoceanic dispersal and local radiations. Habitat shifts caused by climate change and mountain orogenesis may have acted as a catalyst to the diversification by providing new ecological opportunities and challenges as well as by causing isolation as a result of habitat fragmentation. The lories constitute the only highly nectarivorous parrot clade, and their diet shift, associated with morphological innovation, may have acted as an evolutionary key innovation, allowing them to explore underutilized niches and promoting their diversification.

Squirrel Monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) Infected with the Agent of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Develop Tau Pathology

Squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) were infected experimentally with the agent of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Two to four years later, six of the monkeys developed alterations in interactive behaviour and cognition and other neurological signs typical of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). At necropsy examination, the brains from all of the monkeys showed pathological changes similar to those described in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) of man, except that the squirrel monkey brains contained no PrP-amyloid plaques typical of that disease. Constant neuropathological features included spongiform degeneration, gliosis, deposition of abnormal prion protein (PrP(TSE)) and many deposits of abnormally phosphorylated tau protein (p-Tau) in several areas of the cerebrum and cerebellum. Western blots showed large amounts of proteinase K-resistant prion protein in the central nervous system. The striking absence of PrP plaques (prominent in brains of cynomolgus macaques [Macaca fascicularis] with experimentally-induced BSE and vCJD and in human patients with vCJD) reinforces the conclusion that the host plays a major role in determining the neuropathology of TSEs. Results of this study suggest that p-Tau, found in the brains of all BSE-infected monkeys, might play a role in the pathogenesis of TSEs. Whether p-Tau contributes to development of disease or appears as a secondary change late in the course of illness remains to be determined.

Cause or effect of arteriogenesis: compositional alterations of microparticles from CAD patients undergoing external counterpulsation therapy

Recently, a clinical study on patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) showed that external counterpulsation therapy (ECP) at high (300 mmHg) but not at low inflation pressure (80 mmHg) promoted coronary collateral growth, most likely due to shear stress-induced arteriogenesis. The exact molecular mechanisms behind shear stress-induced arteriogenesis are still obscure. We therefore characterized plasma levels of circulating microparticles (MPs) from these CAD patients because of their ambivalent nature as a known cardiovascular risk factor and as a promoter of neovascularization in the case of platelet-derived MPs. MPs positive for Annexin V and CD31CD41 were increased, albeit statistically significant (P<0.05, vs. baseline) only in patients receiving high inflation pressure ECP as determined by flow cytometry. MPs positive for CD62E, CD146, and CD14 were unaffected. In high, but not in low, inflation pressure treatment, change of CD31CD41 was inversely correlated to the change in collateral flow index (CFI), a measure for collateral growth. MPs from the high inflation pressure group had a more sustained pro-angiogenic effect than the ones from the low inflation pressure group, with the exception of one patient showing also an increased CFI after treatment. A total of 1005 proteins were identified by a label-free proteomics approach from MPs of three patients of each group applying stringent acceptance criteria. Based on semi-quantitative protein abundance measurements, MPs after ECP therapy contained more cellular proteins and increased CD31, corroborating the increase in MPs. Furthermore, we show that MP-associated factors of the innate immune system were decreased, many membrane-associated signaling proteins, and the known arteriogenesis stimulating protein transforming growth factor beta-1 were increased after ECP therapy. In conclusion, our data show that ECP therapy increases platelet-derived MPs in patients with CAD and that the change in protein cargo of MPs is likely in favor of a pro angiogenic/arteriogenic property.

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

The Contested Floodplain. Institutional Change of the Commons in the Kafue Flats, Zambia

The Contested Floodplain tells the story of institutional changes in the management of common pool resources (pasture, wildlife, and fisheries) among Ila and Balundwe agro-pastoralists and Batwa fishermen in the Kafue Flats, in southern Zambia. It explains how and why a once rich floodplain area, managed under local common property regimes, becomes a poor man’s place and a degraded resource area. Based on social anthropological field research, the book explains how well working institutions in the past, regulating communal access to resources, have turned into state property and open access or privatization. The study focuses on the historic developments taking place since pre-colonial and colonial times up to today. Haller shows how the commons had been well regulated by local institutions in the past, often embedded in religious belief systems. He then explains the transformation from common property to state property since colonial times. When the state is unable to provide well-functioning institutions due to a lack in financial income, it contributes to de facto open access and degradation of the commons. The Zambian copper-based economy has faced crisis since 1975, and many Zambians have to look for economic alternatives and find ways to profit from the lack of state control (a paradox of the present-absent state). And while the state is absent, external actors use the ideology of citizenship to justify free use of resources during conflicts with local people. Also within Zambian communities, floodplain resources are highly contested, which is illustrated through conflicts over a proposed irrigation scheme in the area.

Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy

This paper studies the relation between coalition structures in policy processes and policy change. While different factors such as policy images, learning processes, external events, or venue shopping are important to explain policy change, coalition structures within policy processes are often neglected. However, policy change happens as a result of negotiations and coordination among coalitions within policy processes. The paper analyzes how conflict, collaboration, and power relations among coalitions of actors influence policy change in an institutional context of a consensus democracy. Empirically, I rely on a Qualitative Comparative Analysis to conduct a cross-sector comparison of the 11 most important policy processes in Switzerland between 2001 and 2006. Coalition structures with low conflict and strong collaboration among coalitions as well as structures with dominant coalitions and weak collaboration both facilitate major policy change. Competing coalitions that are separated by strong conflict but still collaborate strongly produce policy outputs that are close to the status quo.

Decision-Making Processes in Voluntary Football Clubs in Relation to External Counselling

Introduction Recruiting and retaining volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment is a major problem for Swiss sports clubs. With the inclusion of external counselling for the change and systematisation of volunteer management, sports clubs have a possibility to develop and defuse problems in spite of existing barriers and gaps in knowledge. To what extent is external counselling for personnel problems effective? It is often observed that standardised counselling inputs lead to varying consequences for sports clubs. It can be assumed that external impulses are interpreted and transformed differently into the workings of the club. However, this cannot be solely attributed to the situational or structural conditions of the clubs. It is also important to consider the underlying decision-making processes of a club. According to Luhmann’s organisational sociological considerations (2000), organisations (sports clubs) have to be viewed as social systems consisting of (communicated) decisions. This means that organisations are continually reproduced by decision-making processes. All other (observable) factors such as an organisation’s goals, recruiting strategies, support schemes for volunteers etc., have to be seen as an outcome of the operation of prior organisational decisions. Therefore: How do decision-making processes in sports clubs work in the context of the implementation of external counselling? Theoretical Framework An examination of the actual situation in sports clubs shows that decisions frequently appear to be shaped by inconsistency, unexpected outcomes, and randomness (Amis & Slack, 2003). Therefore, it must be emphasised that these decisions cannot be analysed according to any rational decision-making model. Their specific structural characteristics only permit a limited degree of rationality – bounded rationality. Non-profit organisations in particular are shaped by a specific mode of decisionmaking that Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) have called the “garbage can model”. As sport clubs can also be conceived as “organised anarchies”, this model seems to offer an appropriate approach to understanding their practices and analysing their decision-making processes. The key concept in the garbage can model is the assumption that decision-making processes in organisations consist of four “streams”: (a) problems, (b) actors, (c) decision-making opportunities, and (d) solutions. Method Before presenting the method of the analysis of the decision-making processes in sports clubs, the external counselling will be described. The basis of the counselling is generated by a sports clubs’ capability to change. Due to the specific structural characteristics and organisational principles, change processes in sports clubs often merge with barriers and restrictions. These need to be considered when developing counselling guidelines for a successful planning and realisation of change processes. Furthermore, important aspects of personnel management in sports clubs and especially volunteer management must be implied in order to elaborate key elements for the counselling to recruit new volunteers (e.g., approach, expectations). A counselling of four system-counselling workshops was conceptualised by considering these specific characteristics. The decision-making processes in the sports clubs were analysed during the counselling and the implementation process. A case study is designed with the appropriate methodological approach for such explorative research. The approach adopted for these single case analyses was oriented toward the research program of behavioural decision-making theory (garbage can model). This posits that in-depth insights into organisational decision-making processes can only be gained through relevant case studies of existing organisational situations (Skille, 2013). Before, during and after the intervention, questionnaires and guided interviews were conducted with the project teams of the twelve par-ticipating football clubs to assess the different components of the “streams” in the context of external counselling. These interviews have been analysed using content analysis following guidelines as for-mulated by Mayring (2010). Results The findings show that decision-making processes in football clubs occur differently in the context of external counselling. Different initial positions and problems are the triggers for these decision-making processes. Furthermore, the implementation of the solutions and the external counselling is highly dependent on the commitment of certain people as central players within the decision-mak-ing process. The importance of these relationships is confirmed by previous findings in regard to decision-making and change processes in sports clubs. The decision-making processes in sports clubs can be theoretically analysed using behavioural decision-making theory and the “garbage can model”. Bounded rationality characterises all “streams” of the decision-making processes. Moreo-ver, the decision-making process of the football clubs can be well illustrated in the framework, and the interplay of the different dimensions illustrates the different decision-making practices within the football clubs. References Amis, J., & Slack, T. (2003). Analysing sports organisations: Theory and practice. In B. Houlihan (Eds.), Sport & Society (pp. 201–217). London, England: Sage. Cohen, M.D., March, J.G., & Olsen, J.P. (1972). A garbage can model of organisational choice. Ad-ministrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25. Luhmann, N. (2000). Organisation und Entscheidung. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Skille, E. Å. (2013). Case study research in sport management: A reflection upon the theory of science and an empirical example. In S. Söderman & H. Dolles (Eds.), Handbook of research on sport and business (pp. 161–175). Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.