Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Sleep and wakefulness disturbances in Swiss pharmacy customers

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Sleep disturbances are prevalent but often overlooked or underestimated. We suspected that sleep disorders might be particularly common among pharmacy customers, and that they could benefit from counselling. Therefore, we described the prevalence and severity of symptoms associated with sleep and wakefulness disorders among Swiss pharmacy customers, and estimated the need for counselling and treatment. METHODS: In 804 Swiss pharmacies (49% of all community pharmacies) clients were invited to complete the Stanford Sleep Disorders Questionnaire (SDQ), and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (EPW). The SDQ was designed to classify symptoms of sleep and wakefulness into the four most prevalent disorders: sleep apnoea syndrome (SAS), insomnia in psychiatric disorders (PSY), periodic leg movement disorders/restless legs (RLS) and narcolepsy (NAR). Data were entered into an internet-linked database for analysis by an expert system as a basis for immediate counselling by the pharmacist. RESULTS: Of 4901 participants, 3238 (66.1%) were female, and 1663 (33.9%) were male. The mean age (SD) of females and males was 52.4 (18.05), and 55.1 (17.10) years, respectively. The percentages of female and male individuals above cut-off of SDQ subscales were 11.4% and 19.8% for sleep apnoea, 40.9% and 38.7% for psychiatric sleep disorders, 59.3% and 46.8% for restless legs, and 10.4% and 9.4% for narcolepsy respectively. The prevalence of an Epworth Sleepiness Scale score >11 was 16.5% in females, and 23.9% in males. Reliability assessed by Cronbach's alpha was 0.65 to 0.78 for SDQ subscales, and for the Epworth score. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms of sleep and wakefulness disorders among Swiss pharmacy customers were highly prevalent. The SDQ and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale score had a satisfactory reliability to be useful for identification of pharmacy customers who might benefit from information and counselling while visiting pharmacies. The internet-based system proved to be a helpful tool for the pharmacist when counselling his customers in terms of diagnostic classification and severity of symptoms associated with the sleeping and waking state.

International horse movements and spread of equine diseases: Equine Infectious Anaemia and Glanders - two examples

International trade with horses is important and continuously increasing. Therefore the risk of spread of infectious diseases is permanently present. Within this context the worldwide situation of equine vector-borne diseases and of other diseases which are notifiable to the World Organisation of Animal Health (OIE), is described. Furthermore it provides estimates of the numbers of horse movements between these countries, as well as information on import requirements and preventive measures for reducing the risk of disease spread. According to TRACES (Trade Control and Expert System of the European Union) data from 2009 and 2010 81 horses per week were imported from North America into Europe, 42 horses per week from South America, 11 horses per week from the North of Africa and the African horse sichness free-zone of South Africa, 28 per week from the Middle East and the rest of Asia and approximately 4 horses per week from Australia / Oceania. Trade within the European Union resulted amongst others in the introduction of Equine Infectious Anaemia (EIA) from Roma- nia into other European countries. Another example is the suspected case of glanders which occurred after importation of horses from Leb- anon via France and Germany into Switzerland in July 2011.

E-Health towards ecumenical framework for personalized medicine via Decision Support System

The purpose of the present manuscript is to present the advances performed in medicine using a Personalized Decision Support System (PDSS). The models used in Decision Support Systems (DSS) are examined in combination with Genome Information and Biomarkers to produce personalized result for each individual. The concept of personalize medicine is described in depth and application of PDSS for Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) and Type-1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) are analyzed. Parameters extracted from genes, biomarkers, nutrition habits, lifestyle and biological measurements feed DSSs, incorporating Artificial Intelligence Modules (AIM), to provide personalized advice, medication and treatment.

Geographic information system-based decision support for soil conservation planning in Tajikistan

Soil erosion on sloping agricultural land poses a serious problem for the environment, as well as for production. In areas with highly erodible soils, such as those in loess zones, application of soil and water conservation measures is crucial to sustain agricultural yields and to prevent or reduce land degradation. The present study, carried out in Faizabad, Tajikistan, was designed to evaluate the potential of local conservation measures on cropland using a spatial modelling approach to provide decision-making support for the planning of spatially explicit sustainable land use. A sampling design to support comparative analysis between well-conserved units and other field units was established in order to estimate factors that determine water erosion, according to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Such factor-based approaches allow ready application using a geographic information system (GIS) and facilitate straightforward scenario modelling in areas with limited data resources. The study showed first that assessment of erosion and conservation in an area with inhomogeneous vegetation cover requires the integration of plot-based cover. Plot-based vegetation cover can be effectively derived from high-resolution satellite imagery, providing a useful basis for plot-wise conservation planning. Furthermore, thorough field assessments showed that 25.7% of current total cropland is covered by conservation measures (terracing, agroforestry and perennial herbaceous fodder). Assessment of the effectiveness of these local measures, combined with the RUSLE calculations, revealed that current average soil loss could be reduced through low-cost measures such as contouring (by 11%), fodder plants (by 16%), and drainage ditches (by 53%). More expensive measures such as terracing and agroforestry can reduce erosion by as much as 63% (for agroforestry) and 93% (for agroforestry combined with terracing). Indeed, scenario runs for different levels of tolerable erosion rates showed that more cost-intensive and technologically advanced measures would lead to greater reduction of soil loss. However, given economic conditions in Tajikistan, it seems advisable to support the spread of low-cost and labourextensive measures.

A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system

Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.

Investigation of hemodynamics in an in vitro system simulating left ventricular support through the right subclavian artery using 4-dimensional flow magnetic resonance imaging.

OBJECTIVES Left ventricular assist devices are an important treatment option for patients with heart failure alter the hemodynamics in the heart and great vessels. Because in vivo magnetic resonance studies of patients with ventricular assist devices are not possible, in vitro models represent an important tool to investigate flow alterations caused by these systems. By using an in vitro magnetic resonance-compatible model that mimics physiologic conditions as close as possible, this work investigated the flow characteristics using 4-dimensional flow-sensitive magnetic resonance imaging of a left ventricular assist device with outflow via the right subclavian artery as commonly used in cardiothoracic surgery in the recent past. METHODS An in vitro model was developed consisting of an aorta with its supra-aortic branches connected to a left ventricular assist device simulating the pulsatile flow of the native failing heart. A second left ventricular assist device supplied the aorta with continuous flow via the right subclavian artery. Four-dimensional flow-sensitive magnetic resonance imaging was performed for different flow rates of the left ventricular assist device simulating the native heart and the left ventricular assist device providing the continuous flow. Flow characteristics were qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated in the entire vessel system. RESULTS Flow characteristics inside the aorta and its upper branching vessels revealed that the right subclavian artery and the right carotid artery were solely supported by the continuous-flow left ventricular assist device for all flow rates. The flow rates in the brain-supplying arteries are only marginally affected by different operating conditions. The qualitative analysis revealed only minor effects on the flow characteristics, such as weakly pronounced vortex flow caused by the retrograde flow via the brachiocephalic artery. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate that, despite the massive alterations in natural hemodynamics due to the retrograde flow via the right subclavian and brachiocephalic arteries, there are no drastic consequences on the flow in the brain-feeding arteries and the flow characteristics in the ascending and descending aortas. It may be beneficial to adjust the operating condition of the left ventricular assist device to the residual function of the failing heart.