Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

The quantitative genetic basis of offspring solicitation and parental response in a passerine bird with biparental care

The coevolution of parental investment and offspring solicitation is driven by partly different evolutionary interests of genes expressed in parents and their offspring. In species with biparental care, the outcome of this conflict ma!: be influenced by the sexual conflict over parental investment, Models for the resolution of such family conflicts have made so far untested assumptions about genetic variation and covariation in the parental resource provisioning response and the level of offspring solicitation. Using a combination of cross-fostering and begging playback experiments, we show that, in the great tit (Parus major), (i) the begging call intensity of nestlings depends on their common origin, suggesting genetic variation for this begging display, (ii) only mothers respond to begging calls by increased food provisioning, and (iii! the size of the parental response is positively related to the begging call intensity of nestlings in the maternal but not paternal line. This study indicates that genetic covariation, its differential expression in the maternal and paternal lines and/or early environmental and parental effects need to be taken into account when predicting the phenotypic outcome of the conflict over investment between genes expressed in each parent and the offspring. [References: 36]