Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Do we really need 24-h observation for patients with minimal brain injury and small intracranial bleeding? The Bernese Trauma Unit Protocol

Traumatic brain injury is one of the most common reasons for admission to hospital emergency departments. However, optimal diagnosis and treatment protocols remain controversial. The aim of this study is to assess whether a specific group of patients can be discharged from the hospital without 24-h neurological observation.

Observation of ventilation-induced Spo(2) oscillations in pigs: first step to noninvasive detection of cyclic recruitment of atelectasis?

High arterial partial oxygen pressure (Pao(2)) oscillations within the respiratory cycle were described recently in experimental acute lung injury. This phenomenon has been related to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis and varying pulmonary shunt fractions. Noninvasive detection of Spo(2) (oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry) as an indicator of cyclic collapse of atelectasis, instead of recording Pao(2) oscillations, could be of clinical interest in critical care. Spo(2) oscillations were recorded continuously in three different cases of lung damage to demonstrate the technical feasibility of this approach. To deduce Pao(2) from Spo(2), a mathematical model of the hemoglobin dissociation curve including left and right shifts was derived from the literature and adapted to the dynamic changes of oxygenation. Calculated Pao(2) amplitudes (derived from Spo(2) measurements) were compared to simultaneously measured fast changes of Pao(2), using a current standard method (fluorescence quenching of ruthenium). Peripheral hemoglobin saturation was capable to capture changes of Spo(2) within each respiratory cycle. For the first time, Spo(2) oscillations due to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis within a respiratory cycle were determined by photoplethysmography, a technology that can be readily applied noninvasively in clinical routine. A mathematic model to calculate the respective Pao(2) changes was developed and its applicability tested.

New exposure system to evaluate the toxicity of (scooter) exhaust emissions in lung cells in vitro

A constantly growing number of scooters produce an increasing amount of potentially harmful emissions. Due to their engine technology, two-stroke scooters emit huge amounts of adverse substances, which can induce adverse pulmonary and cardiovascular health effects. The aim of this study was to develop a system to expose a characterized triple cell coculture model of the human epithelial airway barrier, to freshly produced and characterized total scooter exhaust emissions. In exposure chambers, cell cultures were exposed for 1 and 2 h to 1:100 diluted exhaust emissions and in the reference chamber to filtered ambient air, both controlled at 5% CO(2), 85% relative humidity, and 37 degrees C. The postexposure time was 0-24 h. Cytotoxicity, used to validate the exposure system, was significantly increased in exposed cell cultures after 8 h postexposure time. (Pro-) inflammatory chemo- and cytokine concentrations in the medium of exposed cells were significantly higher at the 12 h postexposure time point. It was shown that the described exposure system (with 2 h exposure duration, 8 and 24 h postexposure time, dilution of 1:100, flow of 2 L/min as optimal exposure conditions) can be used to evaluate the toxic potential of total exhaust emissions.

Differential activation of the lateral premotor cortex during action observation

Background Action observation leads to neural activation of the human premotor cortex. This study examined how the level of motor expertise (expert vs. novice) in ballroom dancing and the visual viewpoint (internal vs. external viewpoint) influence this activation within different parts of this area of the brain. Results Sixteen dance experts and 16 novices observed ballroom dance videos from internal or external viewpoints while lying in a functional magnetic resonance imaging scanner. A conjunction analysis of all observation conditions showed that action observation activated distinct networks of premotor, parietal, and cerebellar structures. Experts revealed increased activation in the ventral premotor cortex compared to novices. An internal viewpoint led to higher activation of the dorsal premotor cortex. Conclusions The present results suggest that the ventral and dorsal premotor cortex adopt differential roles during action observation depending on the level of motor expertise and the viewpoint.