16 resultados para ecological box-model

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Acoustic stimulation of the cochlea leads to a travelling wave in the cochlear fluids and on the basilar membrane (BM). It has long been suspected that this travelling wave leads to a steady streaming flow in the cochlea. Theoretical investigations suggested that the steady streaming might be of physiological relevance. Here, we present a quantitative study of the steady streaming in a computational model of a passive cochlea. The structure of the streaming flow is illustrated and the sources of streaming are closely investigated. We describe a source of streaming which has not been considered in the cochlea by previous authors. This source is also related to a steady axial displacement of the BM which leads to a local stretching of this compliant structure. We present theoretical predictions for the streaming intensity which account for these new phenomena. It is shown that these predictions compare well with our numerical results and that there may be steady streaming velocities of the order of millimetres per second. Our results indicate that steady streaming should be more relevant to low-frequency hearing because the strength of the streaming flow rapidly decreases for higher frequencies.

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The cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on a wide range of time scales. It is generally accepted that it is driven by both cyclonic winds and buoyancy forcing, yet the individual importance and dynamical interactions of the two contributions remain unclear. The authors propose a simplified four-box model representing the convective basin of the Labrador Sea and its shallow and deep boundary current system, the western subpolar gyre. Convective heat loss drives a baroclinic flow of relatively light water around the dense center. Eddy salt flux from the boundary current to the center increases with a stronger circulation, favors the formation of dense waters, and thereby sustains a strong baroclinic flow, approximately 10%–25% of the total. In contrast, when the baroclinic flow is not active, surface waters may be too fresh to convect, and a buoyancy-driven circulation cannot develop. This situation corresponds to a second stable circulation mode. A hysteresis is found for variations in surface freshwater flux and the salinity of the near-surface boundary current. An analytical solution is presented and analyzed.

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The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Electron recombination in highly ionizing stopping protons and deuterons is studied in the ArgoNeuT detector. The data are well modeled by either a Birks model or a modified form of the Box model. The dependence of recombination on the track angle with respect to the electric field direction is much weaker than the predictions of the Jaffe columnar theory and by theoretical-computational simulations.

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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

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Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

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Mechanical thrombectomy in ischemic stroke is of increasing interest as it is a promising strategy for fast and efficient recanalization. Several thrombectomy devices have been introduced to the armentarium of mechanical thrombectomy. Currently, new devices are under development and are continuously added to the neurointerventional tool box. Each device advocated so far has a different design and mechanical properties in terms of thrombus-device interaction. Therefore, a systematic evaluation under standardized conditions in vivo of these new devices is needed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency, thrombus-device interaction, and potential complications of the novel Phenox CRC for distal mechanical thrombectomy in vivo. The device was evaluated in an established animal model in the swine. Recanalization rate, thromboembolic events, vasospasm, and complications were assessed. Radiopaque thrombi (2 cm length) were used for the visualization of thrombus-device interaction during retrieval. The Phenox CRC (4 mm diameter) was assessed in 15 vessel occlusions. For every occlusion a maximum of 3 retrieval attempts were performed. Complete recanalization (TICI 3/TIMI 3) was achieved in 86.7% of vessel occlusions. In 66.7% (10/15), the first retrieval attempt was successful, and in 20% (3/15), the second attempt led to complete recanalization of the parent artery. In 2 cases (13.3%) thrombus retrieval was not successful (TICI 0/TIMI 0). In 1 case (6.7%) a minor embolic event occurred in a small side branch. No distal thromboembolic event was observed during the study. Thrombus-device interaction illustrated the entrapment of the thrombus by the microfilaments and the proximal cage of the device. No significant thrombus compression was observed. No vessel perforation, dissection, or fracture of the device occurred. In this small animal study, the Phenox CRC was a safe and effective device for mechanical thrombectomy. The unique design with a combination of microfilaments and proximal cage reduces thrombus compression with a consequently high recanalization and low complication rate.

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The theory of ecological speciation suggests that assortative mating evolves most easily when mating preferences are;directly linked to ecological traits that are subject to divergent selection. Sensory adaptation can play a major role in this process,;because selective mating is often mediated by sexual signals: bright colours, complex song, pheromone blends and so on. When;divergent sensory adaptation affects the perception of such signals, mating patterns may change as an immediate consequence.;Alternatively, mating preferences can diverge as a result of indirect effects: assortative mating may be promoted by selection;against intermediate phenotypes that are maladapted to their (sensory) environment. For Lake Victoria cichlids, the visual environment;constitutes an important selective force that is heterogeneous across geographical and water depth gradients. We investigate;the direct and indirect effects of this heterogeneity on the evolution of female preferences for alternative male nuptial colours;(red and blue) in the genus Pundamilia. Here, we review the current evidence for divergent sensory drive in this system, extract;general principles, and discuss future perspectives

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The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

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The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

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Species coexistence has been a fundamental issue to understand ecosystem functioning since the beginnings of ecology as a science. The search of a reliable and all-encompassing explanation for this issue has become a complex goal with several apparently opposing trends. On the other side, seemingly unconnected with species coexistence, an ecological state equation based on the inverse correlation between an indicator of dispersal that fits gamma distribution and species diversity has been recently developed. This article explores two factors, whose effects are inconspicuous in such an equation at the first sight, that are used to develop an alternative general theoretical background in order to provide a better understanding of species coexistence. Our main outcomes are: (i) the fit of dispersal and diversity values to gamma distribution is an important factor that promotes species coexistence mainly due to the right-skewed character of gamma distribution; (ii) the opposite correlation between species diversity and dispersal implies that any increase of diversity is equivalent to a route of “ecological cooling” whose maximum limit should be constrained by the influence of the third law of thermodynamics; this is in agreement with the well-known asymptotic trend of diversity values in space and time; (iii) there are plausible empirical and theoretical ways to apply physical principles to explain important ecological processes; (iv) the gap between theoretical and empirical ecology in those cases where species diversity is paradoxically high could be narrowed by a wave model of species coexistence based on the concurrency of local equilibrium states. In such a model, competitive exclusion has a limited but indispensable role in harmonious coexistence with functional redundancy. We analyze several literature references as well as ecological and evolutionary examples that support our approach, reinforcing the meaning equivalence between important physical and ecological principles.

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Objectives: This study aimed at identifying distinct quitting trajectories over 29 days after an unassisted smoking ces- sation attempt by ecological momentary assessment (EMA). In order to validate these trajectories we tested if they predict smoking frequency up to six months later. Methods: EMA via mobile phones was used to collect real time data on smoking (yes/no) after an unassisted quit attempt over 29 days. Smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt was assessed with online questionnaires. Latent class growth modeling was used to analyze the data of 230 self-quitters. Results: Four different quitting trajectories emerged: quitter (43.9%), late quitter (11.3%), returner (17%) and persistent smoker (27.8%). The quitting trajectories predicted smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt (all p < 0.001). Conclusions: Outcome after a smoking cessation attempt is better described by four distinct trajectories instead of a binary variable for abstinence or relapse. In line with the relapse model by Marlatt and Gordon, late quitter may have learned how to cope with lapses during one month after the quitting attempt. This group would have been allocated to the relapse group in traditional outcome studies.

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AIMS: To investigate pathways through which momentary negative affect and depressive symptoms affect risk of lapse during smoking cessation attempts. DESIGN: Ecological momentary assessment was carried out during 2 weeks after an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. A 3-month follow-up measured smoking frequency. SETTING: Data were collected via mobile devices in German-speaking Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 242 individuals (age 20-40, 67% men) reported 7112 observations. MEASUREMENTS: Online surveys assessed baseline depressive symptoms and nicotine dependence. Real-time data on negative affect, physical withdrawal symptoms, urge to smoke, abstinence-related self-efficacy and lapses. FINDINGS: A two-level structural equation model suggested that on the situational level, negative affect increased the urge to smoke and decreased self-efficacy (β = 0.20; β = -0.12, respectively), but had no direct effect on lapse risk. A higher urge to smoke (β = 0.09) and lower self-efficacy (β = -0.11) were confirmed as situational antecedents of lapses. Depressive symptoms at baseline were a strong predictor of a person's average negative affect (β = 0.35, all P < 0.001). However, the baseline characteristics influenced smoking frequency 3 months later only indirectly, through influences of average states on the number of lapses during the quit attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for nicotine dependence, higher depressive symptoms at baseline were associated strongly with a worse longer-term outcome. Negative affect experienced during the quit attempt was the only pathway through which the baseline depressive symptoms were associated with a reduced self-efficacy and increased urges to smoke, all leading to the increased probability of lapses.

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The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.