Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Postreperfusion cardiac arrest and resuscitation during orthotopic liver transplantation: dynamic visualization and analysis of physiologic recordings

We recently reported on the Multi Wave Animator (MWA), a novel open-source tool with capability of recreating continuous physiologic signals from archived numerical data and presenting them as they appeared on the patient monitor. In this report, we demonstrate for the first time the power of this technology in a real clinical case, an intraoperative cardiopulmonary arrest following reperfusion of a liver transplant graft. Using the MWA, we animated hemodynamic and ventilator data acquired before, during, and after cardiac arrest and resuscitation. This report is accompanied by an online video that shows the most critical phases of the cardiac arrest and resuscitation and provides a basis for analysis and discussion. This video is extracted from a 33-min, uninterrupted video of cardiac arrest and resuscitation, which is available online. The unique strength of MWA, its capability to accurately present discrete and continuous data in a format familiar to clinicians, allowed us this rare glimpse into events leading to an intraoperative cardiac arrest. Because of the ability to recreate and replay clinical events, this tool should be of great interest to medical educators, researchers, and clinicians involved in quality assurance and patient safety.

Three-dimensional printing of models for preoperative planning and simulation of transcatheter valve replacement

In this study, we show the use of three-dimensional printing models for preoperative planning of transcatheter valve replacement in a patient with an extreme porcelain aorta. A 70-year-old man with severe aortic stenosis and a porcelain aorta was referred to our center for transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Unfortunately, the patient died after the procedure because of a potential ischemic event. Therefore, we decided to fabricate three-dimensional models to evaluate the potential effects of these constructs for previous surgical planning and simulation of the transcatheter valve replacement.

The discovery of new 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 inhibitors by common feature pharmacophore modeling and virtual screening

11beta-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11beta-HSD) enzymes catalyze the conversion of biologically inactive 11-ketosteroids into their active 11beta-hydroxy derivatives and vice versa. Inhibition of 11beta-HSD1 has considerable therapeutic potential for glucocorticoid-associated diseases including obesity, diabetes, wound healing, and muscle atrophy. Because inhibition of related enzymes such as 11beta-HSD2 and 17beta-HSDs causes sodium retention and hypertension or interferes with sex steroid hormone metabolism, respectively, highly selective 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors are required for successful therapy. Here, we employed the software package Catalyst to develop ligand-based multifeature pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors. Virtual screening experiments and subsequent in vitro evaluation of promising hits revealed several selective inhibitors. Efficient inhibition of recombinant human 11beta-HSD1 in intact transfected cells as well as endogenous enzyme in mouse 3T3-L1 adipocytes and C2C12 myotubes was demonstrated for compound 27, which was able to block subsequent cortisol-dependent activation of glucocorticoid receptors with only minor direct effects on the receptor itself. Our results suggest that inhibitor-based pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 in combination with suitable cell-based activity assays, including such for related enzymes, can be used for the identification of selective and potent inhibitors.