Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Early detection of action potential duration alternans using an autoregressive model

Annual Meeting of the Biophysical Society, San Diego, USA

Using an adaptive autoregressive model for the early detection of action potential duration alternans

Cardiostim 2012, Nice, France

Time-order errors and standard-position effects in duration discrimination: An experimental study and an analysis by the sensation-weighting model

Studies have shown that the discriminability of successive time intervals depends on the presentation order of the standard (St) and the comparison (Co) stimuli. Also, this order affects the point of subjective equality. The first effect is here called the standard-position effect (SPE); the latter is known as the time-order error. In the present study, we investigated how these two effects vary across interval types and standard durations, using Hellström’s sensation-weighting model to describe the results and relate them to stimulus comparison mechanisms. In Experiment 1, four modes of interval presentation were used, factorially combining interval type (filled, empty) and sensory modality (auditory, visual). For each mode, two presentation orders (St–Co, Co–St) and two standard durations (100 ms, 1,000 ms) were used; half of the participants received correctness feedback, and half of them did not. The interstimulus interval was 900 ms. The SPEs were negative (i.e., a smaller difference limen for St–Co than for Co–St), except for the filled-auditory and empty-visual 100-ms standards, for which a positive effect was obtained. In Experiment 2, duration discrimination was investigated for filled auditory intervals with four standards between 100 and 1,000 ms, an interstimulus interval of 900 ms, and no feedback. Standard duration interacted with presentation order, here yielding SPEs that were negative for standards of 100 and 1,000 ms, but positive for 215 and 464 ms. Our findings indicate that the SPE can be positive as well as negative, depending on the interval type and standard duration, reflecting the relative weighting of the stimulus information, as is described by the sensation-weighting model.

Cardiac sodium channel NaV1.5 distribution in myocytes via interacting proteins: the multiple pool model

The cardiac sodium current (INa) is responsible for the rapid depolarization of cardiac cells, thus allowing for their contraction. It is also involved in regulating the duration of the cardiac action potential (AP) and propagation of the impulse throughout the myocardium. Cardiac INa is generated by the voltage-gated Na(+) channel, NaV1.5, a 2016-residue protein which forms the pore of the channel. Over the past years, hundreds of mutations in SCN5A, the human gene coding for NaV1.5, have been linked to many cardiac electrical disorders, including the congenital and acquired long QT syndrome, Brugada syndrome, conduction slowing, sick sinus syndrome, atrial fibrillation, and dilated cardiomyopathy. Similar to many membrane proteins, NaV1.5 has been found to be regulated by several interacting proteins. In some cases, these different proteins, which reside in distinct membrane compartments (i.e. lateral membrane vs. intercalated disks), have been shown to interact with the same regulatory domain of NaV1.5, thus suggesting that several pools of NaV1.5 channels may co-exist in cardiac cells. The aim of this review article is to summarize the recent works that demonstrate its interaction with regulatory proteins and illustrate the model that the sodium channel NaV1.5 resides in distinct and different pools in cardiac cells. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Cardiomyocyte Biology: Cardiac Pathways of Differentiation, Metabolism and Contraction.

Subconductance states of Cx30 gap junction channels: data from transfected HeLa cells versus data from a mathematical model

Human HeLa cells expressing mouse connexin30 were used to study the electrical properties of gap junction channel substates. Experiments were performed on cell pairs using a dual voltage-clamp method. Single-channel currents revealed discrete levels attributable to a main state, a residual state, and five substates interposed, suggesting the operation of six subgates provided by the six connexins of a gap junction hemichannel. Substate conductances, gamma(j,substate), were unevenly distributed between the main-state and the residual-state conductance (gamma(j,main state) = 141 pS, gamma(j,residual state) = 21 pS). Activation of the first subgate reduced the channel conductance by approximately 30%, and activation of subsequent subgates resulted in conductance decrements of 10-15% each. Current transitions between the states were fast (<2 ms). Substate events were usually demarcated by transitions from and back to the main state; transitions among substates were rare. Hence, subgates are recruited simultaneously rather than sequentially. The incidence of substate events was larger at larger gradients of V(j). Frequency and duration of substate events increased with increasing number of synchronously activated subgates. Our mathematical model, which describes the operation of gap junction channels, was expanded to include channel substates. Based on the established V(j)-sensitivity of gamma(j,main state) and gamma(j,residual state), the simulation yielded unique functions gamma(j,substate) = f(V(j)) for each substate. Hence, the spacing of subconductance levels between the channel main state and residual state were uneven and characteristic for each V(j).

Severity of mucosal inflammation as a predictor for alterations of visceral sensory function in a rat model

Transient inflammation is known to alter visceral sensory function and frequently precede the onset of symptoms in a subgroup of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Duration and severity of the initial inflammatory stimulus appear to be risk factors for the manifestation of symptoms. Therefore, we aimed to characterize dose-dependent effects of trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS)/ethanol on: (1) colonic mucosa, (2) cytokine release and (3) visceral sensory function in a rat model. Acute inflammation was induced in male Lewis rats by single administration of various doses of TNBS/ethanol (total of 0.8, 0.4 or 0.2 ml) in test animals or saline in controls. Assessment of visceromotor response (VMR) to colorectal distensions, histological evaluation of severity of inflammation, and measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-6) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were performed 2h and 3, 14, 28, 31 and 42 days after induction. Increased serum IL-2 and IL-6 levels were evident prior to mucosal lesions 2h after induction of colitis and persist up to 14 days (p<0.05 vs. saline), although no histological signs of inflammation were detected at 14 days. In the acute phase, VMR was only significantly increased after 0.8 ml and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol (p<0.05 vs. saline). After 28 days, distension-evoked responses were persistently elevated (p<0.05 vs. saline) in 0.8 and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol-treated rats. In 0.2 ml TNBS/ethanol group, VMR was only enhanced after repeated visceral stimulation. Visceral hyperalgesia occurs after a transient colitis. However, even a mild acute but asymptomatic colitis can induce long-lasting visceral hyperalgesia in the presence of additional stimuli.

Effects of native pollinator specialization, selfcompatibility and flowering duration of European plant species on their invasiveness elsewhere

1. When entomophilous plants are introduced to a new region, they may leave behind their usual pollinators. In particular, plant species with specialized pollination may then be less likely to establish and spread (i.e. become invasive). Moreover, other reproductive characteristics such as self-compatibility and flowering duration may also affect invasion success. 2. Here, we specifically asked whether plant species' specialization towards pollinator species and families, respectively, as measured in the native range, self-compatibility, flowering duration and their interactions are related to the degree of invasion (i.e. a measure of regional abundance) in non-native regions. 3. We used plant–pollinator interaction data from 119 German grassland sites to calculate unbiased indices of plant specialization towards pollinator species and families for 118 European plant species. We related these specialization indices, flowering duration, self-compatibility and their interactions to the degree of invasion of each species in seven large countries on four non-Eurasian continents. 4. In all models, plant species with long flowering durations had the highest degree of invasion. The best model included the specialization index based on pollinator species instead of the one based on pollinator families. Specialization towards pollinator species had a marginally significant positive effect on the degree of invasion in non-native regions for self-compatible, but not for self-incompatible species. 5. Synthesis. We showed that long flowering duration is related to the degree of invasion in other parts of the world, and a trend that pollinator generalization in the native range may interact with self-compatibility in determining the degree of invasion. Therefore, we conclude that such reproductive characteristics should be considered in risk assessment and management of introduced plant species.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Dose–effect relationship in routine outpatient psychotherapy: Does treatment duration matter?

Objective: There is an ongoing debate concerning how outcome variables change during the course of psychotherapy. We compared the dose–effect model, which posits diminishing effects of additional sessions in later treatment phases, against a model that assumes a linear and steady treatment progress through termination. Method: Session-by-session outcome data of 6,375 outpatients were analyzed, and participants were categorized according to treatment length. Linear and log-linear (i.e., negatively accelerating) latent growth curve models (LGCMs) were estimated and compared for different treatment length categories. Results: When comparing the fit of the various models, the log-linear LGCMs assuming negatively accelerating treatment progress consistently outperformed the linear models irre- spective of treatment duration. The rate of change was found to be inversely related to the length of treatment. Conclusion: As proposed by the dose–effect model, the expected course of improvement in psychotherapy appears to follow a negatively accelerated pattern of change, irrespective of the duration of the treatment. However, our results also suggest that the rate of change is not constant across various treatment lengths. As proposed by the “good enough level” model, longer treatments are associated with less rapid rates of change.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

Dominance of chemokine ligand 2 and matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9 and suppression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the epidural compartment after intervertebral disc extrusion in a canine model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) disease, a useful animal model, only little is known about the inflammatory response in the epidural space. PURPOSE To determine messenger RNA (mRNA) expressions of selected cytokines, chemokines, and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) qualitatively and semiquantitatively over the course of the disease and to correlate results to neurologic status and outcome. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Prospective study using extruded IVD material of dogs with thoracolumbar IVD extrusion. PATIENT SAMPLE Seventy affected and 13 control (24 samples) dogs. OUTCOME MEASURES Duration of neurologic signs, pretreatment, neurologic grade, severity of pain, and outcome were recorded. After diagnostic imaging, decompressive surgery was performed. METHODS Messenger RNA expressions of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon (IFN)γ, MMP-2, MMP-9, chemokine ligand (CCL)2, CCL3, and three housekeeping genes was determined in the collected epidural material by Panomics 2.0 QuantiGene Plex technology. Relative mRNA expression and fold changes were calculated. Relative mRNA expression was correlated statistically to clinical parameters. RESULTS Fold changes of TNF, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IFNγ, and CCL3 were clearly downregulated in all stages of the disease. MMP-9 was downregulated in the acute stage and upregulated in the subacute and chronic phase. Interleukin-8 was upregulated in acute cases. MMP-2 showed mild and CCL2 strong upregulation over the whole course of the disease. In dogs with severe pain, CCL3 and IFNγ were significantly higher compared with dogs without pain (p=.017/.020). Dogs pretreated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs revealed significantly lower mRNA expression of IL-8 (p=.017). CONCLUSIONS The high CCL2 levels and upregulated MMPs combined with downregulated T-cell cytokines and suppressed pro-inflammatory genes in extruded canine disc material indicate that the epidural reaction is dominated by infiltrating monocytes differentiating into macrophages with tissue remodeling functions. These results will help to understand the pathogenic processes representing the basis for novel therapeutic approaches. The canine IVD disease model will be rewarding in this process.

Coherence and phase locking in the scalp EEG and between LORETA model sources, and microstates as putative mechanisms of brain temporo-spatial functional organization

Brain electric mechanisms of temporary, functional binding between brain regions are studied using computation of scalp EEG coherence and phase locking, sensitive to time differences of few milliseconds. However, such results if computed from scalp data are ambiguous since electric sources are spatially oriented. Non-ambiguous results can be obtained using calculated time series of strength of intracerebral model sources. This is illustrated applying LORETA modeling to EEG during resting and meditation. During meditation, time series of LORETA model sources revealed a tendency to decreased left-right intracerebral coherence in the delta band, and to increased anterior-posterior intracerebral coherence in the theta band. An alternate conceptualization of functional binding is based on the observation that brain electric activity is discontinuous, i.e., that it occurs in chunks of up to about 100 ms duration that are detectable as quasi-stable scalp field configurations of brain electric activity, called microstates. Their functional significance is illustrated in spontaneous and event-related paradigms, where microstates associated with imagery- versus abstract-type mentation, or while reading positive versus negative emotion words showed clearly different regions of cortical activation in LORETA tomography. These data support the concept that complete brain functions of higher order such as a momentary thought might be incorporated in temporal chunks of processing in the range of tens to about 100 ms as quasi-stable brain states; during these time windows, subprocesses would be accepted as members of the ongoing chunk of processing.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

A numerical model for inert gas transport in the lung based on fractal airway morphology

Patients suffering from cystic fibrosis (CF) show thick secretions, mucus plugging and bronchiectasis in bronchial and alveolar ducts. This results in substantial structural changes of the airway morphology and heterogeneous ventilation. Disease progression and treatment effects are monitored by so-called gas washout tests, where the change in concentration of an inert gas is measured over a single or multiple breaths. The result of the tests based on the profile of the measured concentration is a marker for the severity of the ventilation inhomogeneity strongly affected by the airway morphology. However, it is hard to localize underlying obstructions to specific parts of the airways, especially if occurring in the lung periphery. In order to support the analysis of lung function tests (e.g. multi-breath washout), we developed a numerical model of the entire airway tree, coupling a lumped parameter model for the lung ventilation with a 4th-order accurate finite difference model of a 1D advection-diffusion equation for the transport of an inert gas. The boundary conditions for the flow problem comprise the pressure and flow profile at the mouth, which is typically known from clinical washout tests. The natural asymmetry of the lung morphology is approximated by a generic, fractal, asymmetric branching scheme which we applied for the conducting airways. A conducting airway ends when its dimension falls below a predefined limit. A model acinus is then connected to each terminal airway. The morphology of an acinus unit comprises a network of expandable cells. A regional, linear constitutive law describes the pressure-volume relation between the pleural gap and the acinus. The cyclic expansion (breathing) of each acinus unit depends on the resistance of the feeding airway and on the flow resistance and stiffness of the cells themselves. Special care was taken in the development of a conservative numerical scheme for the gas transport across bifurcations, handling spatially and temporally varying advective and diffusive fluxes over a wide range of scales. Implicit time integration was applied to account for the numerical stiffness resulting from the discretized transport equation. Local or regional modification of the airway dimension, resistance or tissue stiffness are introduced to mimic pathological airway restrictions typical for CF. This leads to a more heterogeneous ventilation of the model lung. As a result the concentration in some distal parts of the lung model remains increased for a longer duration. The inert gas concentration at the mouth towards the end of the expirations is composed of gas from regions with very different washout efficiency. This results in a steeper slope of the corresponding part of the washout profile.