Individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnostic and prognostic studies in obstetrics, gynaecology and reproductive medicine

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice a diagnosis is based on a combination of clinical history, physical examination and additional diagnostic tests. At present, studies on diagnostic research often report the accuracy of tests without taking into account the information already known from history and examination. Due to this lack of information, together with variations in design and quality of studies, conventional meta-analyses based on these studies will not show the accuracy of the tests in real practice. By using individual patient data (IPD) to perform meta-analyses, the accuracy of tests can be assessed in relation to other patient characteristics and allows the development or evaluation of diagnostic algorithms for individual patients. In this study we will examine these potential benefits in four clinical diagnostic problems in the field of gynaecology, obstetrics and reproductive medicine. METHODS/DESIGN: Based on earlier systematic reviews for each of the four clinical problems, studies are considered for inclusion. The first authors of the included studies will be invited to participate and share their original data. After assessment of validity and completeness the acquired datasets are merged. Based on these data, a series of analyses will be performed, including a systematic comparison of the results of the IPD meta-analysis with those of a conventional meta-analysis, development of multivariable models for clinical history alone and for the combination of history, physical examination and relevant diagnostic tests and development of clinical prediction rules for the individual patients. These will be made accessible for clinicians. DISCUSSION: The use of IPD meta-analysis will allow evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests in relation to other relevant information. Ultimately, this could increase the efficiency of the diagnostic work-up, e.g. by reducing the need for invasive tests and/or improving the accuracy of the diagnostic workup. This study will assess whether these benefits of IPD meta-analysis over conventional meta-analysis can be exploited and will provide a framework for future IPD meta-analyses in diagnostic and prognostic research.

Diagnostic and prognostic implications of the PAX8-PPARγ translocation in thyroid carcinomas-a TMA-based study of 226 cases

AIMS Follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) has been a diagnostic challenge for decades. The PAX8-PPARγ rearrangement has been detected in FTC and classic papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). The aims of this study were to assess the presence of PAX8-PPARγ by using tissue microarrays in a large cohort of different thyroid neoplasms, and to assess its diagnostic and prognostic implications. METHODS AND RESULTS Fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) analysis for PAX8-PPARγ was performed on 226 thyroid tumours, comprising FTCs (n = 59), PTCs (n = 126), poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas (PDs; n = 34), follicular thyroid adenomas (FTAs; n = 5), and follicular tumours of unknown malignant potential (FTUMPs; n = 2). PAX8-PPARγ was detected in 12% of FTCs, 1% of PTCs, 7% of PDs, and in both cases of FTUMP. There was no correlation between the extent of capsular or vascular invasion and PAX8-PPARγ, or between lymph node or haematogenous metastasis and PAX8-PPARγ. Overall survival (OS), tumour-specific survival (TSS) and relapse-free-survival (RFS) were not influenced by PAX8-PPARγ. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we demonstrate for the first time the presence of PAX8-PPARγ in PDs and FTUMPs, whereas in FTCs and PTCs the prevalence of PAX8-PPARγ is lower than previously reported. PAX8-PPARγ did not correlate with invasiveness or affect prognosis in any tumour type.

MicroRNA profile of poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas: new diagnostic and prognostic insights.

The diagnosis of conventional and oncocytic poorly differentiated (oPD) thyroid carcinomas is difficult. The aim of this study is to characterise their largely unknown miRNA expression profile and to compare it with well-differentiated thyroid tumours, as well as to identify miRNAs which could potentially serve as diagnostic and prognostic markers. A total of 14 poorly differentiated (PD), 13 oPD, 72 well-differentiated thyroid carcinomas and eight normal thyroid specimens were studied for the expression of 768 miRNAs using PCR-Microarrays. MiRNA expression was different between PD and oPD thyroid carcinomas, demonstrating individual clusters on the clustering analysis. Both tumour types showed upregulation of miR-125a-5p, -15a-3p, -182, -183-3p, -222, -222-5p, and downregulation of miR-130b, -139-5p, -150, -193a-5p, -219-5p, -23b, -451, -455-3p and of miR-886-3p as compared with normal thyroid tissue. In addition, the oPD thyroid carcinomas demonstrated upregulation of miR-221 and miR-885-5p. The difference in expression was also observed between miRNA expression in PD and well-differentiated tumours. The CHAID algorithm allowed the separation of PD from well-differentiated thyroid carcinomas with 73-79% accuracy using miR-23b and miR-150 as a separator. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate analysis showed a significant association with tumour relapses (for miR-23b) and with tumour-specific death (for miR-150) in PD and oPD thyroid carcinomas. MiRNA expression is different in conventional and oPD thyroid carcinomas in comparison with well-differentiated thyroid cancers and can be used for discrimination between these tumour types. The newly identified deregulated miRNAs (miR-150, miR-23b) bear the potential to be used in a clinical setting, delivering prognostic and diagnostic informations.

Noninvasive Urinary Metabolomic Profiling Identifies Diagnostic and Prognostic Markers in Lung Cancer

Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide, yet there is currently a lack of diagnostic noninvasive biomarkers that could guide treatment decisions. Small molecules (<1,500 Da) were measured in urine collected from 469 patients with lung cancer and 536 population controls using unbiased liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Clinical putative diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers were validated by quantitation and normalized to creatinine levels at two different time points and further confirmed in an independent sample set, which comprises 80 cases and 78 population controls, with similar demographic and clinical characteristics when compared with the training set. Creatine riboside (IUPAC name: 2-{2-[(2R,3R,4S,5R)-3,4-dihydroxy-5-(hydroxymethyl)-oxolan-2-yl]-1-methylcarbamimidamido}acetic acid), a novel molecule identified in this study, and N-acetylneuraminic acid (NANA) were each significantly (P < 0.00001) elevated in non-small cell lung cancer and associated with worse prognosis [HR = 1.81 (P = 0.0002), and 1.54 (P = 0.025), respectively]. Creatine riboside was the strongest classifier of lung cancer status in all and stage I-II cases, important for early detection, and also associated with worse prognosis in stage I-II lung cancer (HR = 1.71, P = 0.048). All measurements were highly reproducible with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.82 to 0.99. Both metabolites were significantly (P < 0.03) enriched in tumor tissue compared with adjacent nontumor tissue (N = 48), thus revealing their direct association with tumor metabolism. Creatine riboside and NANA may be robust urinary clinical metabolomic markers that are elevated in tumor tissue and associated with early lung cancer diagnosis and worse prognosis.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Impact of pc-ASPECTS Applied to Perfusion CT in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-APECTS) applied to CT angiography source images (CTA-SI) predicts the functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic impact of pc-ASPECTS applied to perfusion CT (CTP) in the BASICS registry population. METHODS We applied pc-ASPECTS to CTA-SI and cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), and mean transit time (MTT) parameter maps of BASICS patients with CTA and CTP studies performed. Hypoattenuation on CTA-SI, relative reduction in CBV or CBF, or relative increase in MTT were rated as abnormal. RESULTS CTA and CTP were available in 27/592 BASICS patients (4.6%). The proportion of patients with any perfusion abnormality was highest for MTT (93%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 76%-99%), compared with 78% (58%-91%) for CTA-SI and CBF, and 46% (27%-67%) for CBV (P < .001). All 3 patients with a CBV pc-ASPECTS < 8 compared to 6/23 patients with a CBV pc-ASPECTS ≥ 8 had died at 1 month (RR 3.8; 95% CI, 1.9-7.6). CONCLUSION CTP was performed in a minority of the BASICS registry population. Perfusion disturbances in the posterior circulation were most pronounced on MTT parameter maps. CBV pc-ASPECTS < 8 may indicate patients with high case fatality.

Lysyl oxidase expression is an independent marker of prognosis and a predictor of lymph node metastasis in oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC)

Proteins of the lysyl oxidase (LOX) family are important modulators of the extracellular matrix. However, they have an important role in the tumour development as well as in tumour progression. To evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of the LOX protein in oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) we performed QRT-PCR and immunohistochemical analysis on two tissue microarrays (622 tissue samples in total). Significantly higher LOX expression was detected in high grade dysplastic oral mucosa as well as in OSCC when compared to normal oral mucosa (P < 0.001). High LOX expression was correlated with clinical TNM stage (P = 0.020), lymph node metastases for the entire cohort (P < 0.001), as well as in the subgroup of small primary tumours (T1/T2, P < 0.001). Moreover, high LOX expression was correlated with poor overall survival (P = 0.004) and disease specific survival (P = 0.037). In a multivariate analysis, high LOX expression was an independent prognostic factor, predicting unfavourable overall survival. In summary, LOX expression is an independent prognostic biomarker and a predictor of lymph node metastasis in OSCC. Moreover, LOX overexpression may be an early phenomenon in the pathogenesis of OSCC and thus an attractive novel target for chemopreventive and therapeutic strategies.

Neurological outcome, working capacity and prognostic factors of patients with SCIWORA

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case review. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, the neurological outcome, retirement and prognostic factors of patients with spinal cord injury without radiographic abnormality (SCIWORA) were evaluated. SETTING: Swiss national work accident insurance database. METHODS: The medical histories of 32 patients who were insured by the Swiss Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA) and had SCIWORA between 1995 and 2004 were evaluated thoroughly. Moreover, all available magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were evaluated. RESULTS: At the last follow-up, none of the patients had complete spinal cord injury, only 4 patients had severe deficits and 12 patients had normal motor and sensory function in the neurological examination. However, only 7 out of 32 patients had returned to full-time work and 10 out of 32 patients were fully retired. Both the presence of spinal cord change (ρ=0.51) and higher maximum spinal cord compression (ρ=0.57) in MRI scan correlated with the likelihood for retirement; older age (ρ=0.38) and physical load of work (ρ=0.4) correlated with retirement to a lesser extent. CONCLUSION: Although the neurological outcome of SCIWORA is mostly good, the retirement rate is high. Presence of spinal cord change and severity of cord compression are the best predictors for the degree of retirement.

Differential pattern and prognostic significance of CD4+, FOXP3+ and IL-17+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in ductal and lobular breast cancers

Background Clinical relevance of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in breast cancer is controversial. Here, we used a tumor microarray including a large series of ductal and lobular breast cancers with long term follow up data, to analyze clinical impact of TIL expressing specific phenotypes and distribution of TILs within different tumor compartments and in different histological subtypes. Methods A tissue microarray (TMA) including 894 ductal and 164 lobular breast cancers was stained with antibodies recognizing CD4, FOXP3, and IL-17 by standard immunohistochemical techniques. Lymphocyte counts were correlated with clinico-pathological parameters and survival. Results CD4+ lymphocytes were more prevalent than FOXP3+ TILs whereas IL-17+ TILs were rare. Increased numbers of total CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL were observed in ductal, as compared with lobular carcinomas. High grade (G3) and estrogen receptor (ER) negative ductal carcinomas displayed significantly (p < 0.001) higher CD4+ and FOXP3+ lymphocyte infiltration while her2/neu over-expression in ductal carcinomas was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with higher FOXP3+ TIL counts. In contrast, lymphocyte infiltration was not linked to any clinico-pathological parameters in lobular cancers. In univariate but not in multivariate analysis CD4+ infiltration was associated with significantly shorter survival in patients bearing ductal, but not lobular cancers. However, a FOXP3+/CD4+ ratio > 1 was associated with improved overall survival even in multivariate analysis (p = 0.033). Conclusions Ductal and lobular breast cancers appear to be infiltrated by different lymphocyte subpopulations. In ductal cancers increased CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL numbers are associated with more aggressive tumor features. In survival analysis, absolute numbers of TILs do not represent major prognostic indicators in ductal and lobular breast cancer. Remarkably however, a ratio > 1 of total FOXP3+/CD4+ TILs in ductal carcinoma appears to represent an independent favorable prognostic factor.

Stratification and Prognostic Relevance of Jass's Molecular Classification of Colorectal Cancer

Background: The current proposed model of colorectal tumorigenesis is based primarily on CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), microsatellite instability (MSI), KRAS, BRAF, and methylation status of 0-6-Methylguanine DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT) and classifies tumors into five subgroups. The aim of this study is to validate this molecular classification and test its prognostic relevance. Methods: Three hundred two patients were included in this study. Molecular analysis was performed for five CIMP-related promoters (CRABP1, MLH1, p16INK4a, CACNA1G, NEUROG1), MGMT, MSI, KRAS, and BRAF. Methylation in at least 4 promoters or in one to three promoters was considered CIMP-high and CIMP-low (CIMP-H/L), respectively. Results: CIMP-H, CIMP-L, and CIMP-negative were found in 7.1, 43, and 49.9% cases, respectively. One hundred twenty-three tumors (41%) could not be classified into any one of the proposed molecular subgroups, including 107 CIMP-L, 14 CIMP-H, and two CIMP-negative cases. The 10 year survival rate for CIMP-high patients [22.6% (95%CI: 7-43)] was significantly lower than for CIMP-L or CIMP-negative (p = 0.0295). Only the combined analysis of BRAF and CIMP (negative versus L/H) led to distinct prognostic subgroups. Conclusion: Although CIMP status has an effect on outcome, our results underline the need for standardized definitions of low- and high-level CIMP, which clearly hinders an effective prognostic and molecular classification of colorectal cancer.

Outcome and prognostic factors in endometrial stromal tumors: a Rare Cancer Network study

To provide further understanding regarding outcome and prognostic factors of endometrial stromal tumors (EST).

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Origin and prognostic value of circulating KRAS mutations in lung cancer patients

Because of the current controversy on the origin and clinical value of circulating KRAS codon 12 mutations in lung cancer, we screened 180 patients using a combined restriction fragment-length polymorphism and polymerase chain reaction (RFLP-PCR) assay. We detected KRAS mutations in 9% plasma samples and 0% matched lymphocytes. Plasma KRAS mutations correlated significantly with poor prognosis. We validated the positive results in a second laboratory by DNA sequencing and found matching codon 12 sequences in blood and tumor in 78% evaluable cases. These results support the notion that circulating KRAS mutations originate from tumors and are prognostically relevant in lung cancer.