Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

First results from a Swiss level I trauma centre participating in the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN): Prospective cohort study

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Patient characteristics and risk factors for death of Swiss trauma patients in the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of trauma patients (≥16 years) admitted to a level I trauma centre in Switzerland (September 1, 2009 to August 31, 2010) and entered into TARN. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 458 patients 71% were male. The median age was 50.5 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 32.2-67.7), median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 14 (IQR 9-20) and median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was 15 (IQR 14-15). The ISS was >15 for 47%, and 14% had an ISS >25. A total of 17 patients (3.7%) died within 30 days of trauma. All deaths were in patients with ISS >15. Most injuries were due to falls <2 m (35%) or road traffic accidents (29%). Injuries to the head (39%) were followed by injuries to the lower limbs (33%), spine (28%) and chest (27%). The time of admission peaked between 12:00 and 22:00, with a second peak between 00:00 and 02:00. A total of 64% of patients were admitted directly to our trauma centre. The median time to CT was 30 min (IQR 18-54 min). Using multivariable regression analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, higher ISS and lower GCS. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Swiss trauma patients derived from TARN were described for the first time, providing a detailed overview of the institutional trauma population. Based on these results, patient management and hospital resources (e.g. triage of patients, time to CT, staffing during night shifts) could be evaluated as a further step.

Botanical drugs, synergy, and network pharmacology: forth and back to intelligent mixtures

For centuries the science of pharmacognosy has dominated rational drug development until it was gradually substituted by target-based drug discovery in the last fifty years. Pharmacognosy stems from the different systems of traditional herbal medicine and its "reverse pharmacology" approach has led to the discovery of numerous pharmacologically active molecules and drug leads for humankind. But do botanical drugs also provide effective mixtures? Nature has evolved distinct strategies to modulate biological processes, either by selectively targeting biological macromolecules or by creating molecular promiscuity or polypharmacology (one molecule binds to different targets). Widely claimed to be superior over monosubstances, mixtures of bioactive compounds in botanical drugs allegedly exert synergistic therapeutic effects. Despite evolutionary clues to molecular synergism in nature, sound experimental data are still widely lacking to support this assumption. In this short review, the emerging concept of network pharmacology is highlighted, and the importance of studying ligand-target networks for botanical drugs is emphasized. Furthermore, problems associated with studying mixtures of molecules with distinctly different pharmacodynamic properties are addressed. It is concluded that a better understanding of the polypharmacology and potential network pharmacology of botanical drugs is fundamental in the ongoing rationalization of phytotherapy.

Do implicit motives and basic psychological needs interact to predict well-being and flow? Testing a universal hypothesis and a matching hypothesis

Self-Determination Theory (Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum Press, New York, 1985) suggests that certain experiences, such as competence, are equally beneficial to everyone’s well-being (universal hypothesis), whereas Motive Disposition Theory (McClelland in Human motivation. Scott, Foresman, Glenview, IL, 1985) predicts that some people, such as those with a high achievement motive, should benefit particularly from such experiences (matching hypothesis). Existing research on motives as moderators of the relationship between basic need satisfaction and positive outcomes supports both these seemingly inconsistent views. Focusing on the achievement motive, we sought to resolve this inconsistency by considering the specificity of the outcome variables. When predicting domain-specific well-being and flow, the achievement motive should interact with felt competence. However, when it comes to predicting general well-being and flow, felt competence should unfold its effects without being moderated by the achievement motive. Two studies confirmed these assumptions indicating that the universal and matching hypotheses are complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

Cognitive rehabilitation of working memory in juvenile multiple sclerosis-effects on cognitive functioning, functional MRI and network related connectivity.

PURPOSE To assess possible effects of working memory (WM) training on cognitive functionality, functional MRI and brain connectivity in patients with juvenile MS. METHODS Cognitive status, fMRI and inter-network connectivity were assessed in 5 cases with juvenile MS aged between 12 and 18 years. Afterwards they received a computerized WM training for four weeks. Primary cognitive outcome measures were WM (visual and verbal) and alertness. Activation patterns related to WM were assessed during fMRI using an N-Back task with increasing difficulty. Inter-network connectivity analyses were focused on fronto-parietal (left and right), default-mode (dorsal and ventral) and the anterior salience network. Cognitive functioning, fMRI and inter-network connectivity were reassessed directly after the training and again nine months following training. RESULTS Response to treatment was seen in two patients. These patients showed increased performance in WM and alertness after the training. These behavioural changes were accompanied by increased WM network activation and systematic changes in inter-network connectivity. The remaining participants were non-responders to treatment. Effects on cognitive performance were maintained up to nine months after training, whereas effects observed by fMRI disappeared. CONCLUSIONS Responders revealed training effects on all applied outcome measures. Disease activity and general intelligence may be factors associated with response to treatment.

Epidemiology and predictors of spinal injury in adult major trauma patients: European cohort study

This is a European cohort study on predictors of spinal injury in adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients, using prospectively collected data of the Trauma Audit and Research Network from 1988 to 2009. Predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations or spinal cord injury were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. 250,584 patients were analysed. 24,000 patients (9.6%) sustained spinal fractures/dislocations alone and 4,489 (1.8%) sustained spinal cord injury with or without fractures/dislocations. Spinal injury patients had a median age of 44.5 years (IQR = 28.8-64.0) and Injury Severity Score of 9 (IQR = 4-17). 64.9% were male. 45% of patients suffered associated injuries to other body regions. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.83-0.94), Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 3-8 (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), falls >2 m (OR 4.17, 95% CI 3.98-4.37), sports injuries (OR 2.79, 95% CI 2.41-3.23) and road traffic collisions (RTCs) (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.83-2.00) were predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.78-0.90), male gender (female OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.85), GCS <15 (OR 1.36-1.93), associated chest injury (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20), sports injuries (OR 3.98, 95% CI 3.04-5.21), falls >2 m (OR 3.60, 95% CI 3.21-4.04), RTCs (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.96-2.46) and shooting (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.21-3.00) were predictors for spinal cord injury. Multilevel injury was found in 10.4% of fractures/dislocations and in 1.3% of cord injury patients. As spinal trauma occurred in >10% of major trauma patients, aggressive evaluation of the spine is warranted, especially, in males, patients <45 years, with a GCS <15, concomitant chest injury and/or dangerous injury mechanisms (falls >2 m, sports injuries, RTCs and shooting). Diagnostic imaging of the whole spine and a diligent search for associated injuries are substantial.

Geomorphic coupling between hillslopes and channels in the Swiss Alps

The coupling relationships between hillslope and channel network are fundamental for the understanding of mountainous landscapes' evolution. Here, we applied dendrogeomorphic methods to identify the hillslope–channel relationship and the sediment transfer dynamics within an alpine catchment, at the highest possible resolution. The Schimbrig catchment is located in the central Swiss Alps and can be divided into two distinct geomorphic sectors. To the east, the Schimbrig earth flow is the largest sediment source of the basin, while to the west, the Rossloch channel network is affected by numerous shallow landslides responsible for the supply of sediment from hillslopes to channels. To understand the connectivity between hillslopes and channels and between sources and sink, trees were sampled along the main Rossloch stream, on the Schimbrig earth flow and on the Rossloch depositional area. Geomorphic observations and dendrogeomophic results indicate different mechanisms of sediment production, transfer and deposition between upper and lower segments of the channel network. In the source areas (upper part of the Rossloch channel system), sediment is delivered to the channel network through slow movements of the ground, typical of earth flow, shallow landslides and soil creep. Contrariwise, in the depositional area (lower part of the channel network), the mechanisms of sediment transfer are mainly due to torrential activity, floods and debris flows. Tree analysis allowed the reconstruction of periods of high activity during the last century for the entire catchment. The collected dataset presents a very high temporal resolution but we encountered some limitations in establishing the source-to-sink connectivity at the catchment-wide scale. Despite these uncertainties, for decennial timescales the results suggest a direct coupling between hillslopes and neighbouring channels in the Rossloch channel network, and a de-coupling between sediment sources and sink farther downstream, with connections possible only during extraordinary events.

Virtual Infrastructures as a Service enabling Converged Optical Networks and Data Centres

Abstract Cloud computing service emerged as an essential component of the Enterprise {IT} infrastructure. Migration towards a full range and large-scale convergence of Cloud and network services has become the current trend for addressing requirements of the Cloud environment. Our approach takes the infrastructure as a service paradigm to build converged virtual infrastructures, which allow offering tailored performance and enable multi-tenancy over a common physical infrastructure. Thanks to virtualization, new exploitation activities of the physical infrastructures may arise for both transport network and Data Centres services. This approach makes network and Data Centres’ resources dedicated to Cloud Computing to converge on the same flexible and scalable level. The work presented here is based on the automation of the virtual infrastructure provisioning service. On top of the virtual infrastructures, a coordinated operation and control of the different resources is performed with the objective of automatically tailoring connectivity services to the Cloud service dynamics. Furthermore, in order to support elasticity of the Cloud services through the optical network, dynamic re-planning features have been provided to the virtual infrastructure service, which allows scaling up or down existing virtual infrastructures to optimize resource utilisation and dynamically adapt to users’ demands. Thus, the dynamic re-planning of the service becomes key component for the coordination of Cloud and optical network resource in an optimal way in terms of resource utilisation. The presented work is complemented with a use case of the virtual infrastructure service being adopted in a distributed Enterprise Information System, that scales up and down as a function of the application requests.