Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Strategies for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease: results of a decision analysis

Nearly 70% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) undergo surgical resection, with one-quarter subsequently developing clinical recurrence within 12 months. Several options exist for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in CD, but the comparative cost effectiveness of these competing strategies has not been previously analyzed.

Guidelines for WB3 Part III: Stakeholder workshop 2: Selection and decision on prevention and mitigation strategies to be implemented

These guidelines were developed in the context of working block 3 of the DESIRE project. They address the facilitators in the 18 DESIRE study sites and support them in conducting stakeholder workshops aiming at the selection and decision on mitigation strategies to be implemented in the study site context. The decision-making process is supported by a multi-objective decision support system (MODSS) Software called 'Facilitator'.

Knowledge Management and Decision Support for Sustainable Land Management

Much research has focused on desertification and land degradation assessments without putting sufficient emphasis on prevention and mitigation, although the concept of sustainable land management (SLM) is increasingly being acknowledged. A variety of SLM measures have already been applied at the local level, but they are rarely adequately recognised, evaluated, shared or used for decision support. WOCAT (World Overview of Technologies and Approaches) has developed an internationally recognised, standardised methodology to document and evaluate SLM technologies and approaches, including spatial distribution, allowing the sharing of SLM knowledge worldwide. The recent methodological integration into a participatory process allows now analysing and using this knowledge for decision support at the local and national level. The use of the WOCAT tools stimulates evaluation (self-evaluation as well as learning from comparing experiences) within SLM initiatives where all too often there is not only insufficient monitoring but also a lack of critical analysis. The comprehensive questionnaires and database system facilitate to document, evaluate and disseminate local experiences of SLM technologies and their implementation approaches. This evaluation process - in a team of experts and together with land users - greatly enhances understanding of the reasons behind successful (or failed) local practices. It has now been integrated into a new methodology for appraising and selecting SLM options. The methodology combines a local collective learning and decision approach with the use of the evaluated global best practices from WOCAT in a concise three step process: i) identifying land degradation and locally applied solutions in a stakeholder learning workshop; ii) assessing local solutions with the standardised WOCAT tool; iii) jointly selecting promising strategies for implementation with the help of a decision support tool. The methodology has been implemented in various countries and study sites around the world mainly within the FAO LADA (Land Degradation Assessment Project) and the EU-funded DESIRE project. Investments in SLM must be carefully assessed and planned on the basis of properly documented experiences and evaluated impacts and benefits: concerted efforts are needed and sufficient resources must be mobilised to tap the wealth of knowledge and learn from SLM successes.

Spike-based decision learning of nash equilibria in two-player games

Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic) and mixed (stochastic) Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD)-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

Tenofovir-containing nucleoside/nucleotide-only antiretroviral maintenance therapy: decision making and virological outcome

OBJECTIVE: To assess the virological outcome of patients with undetectable human immunodeficiency (HI) viremia switched to tenofovir (TDF)-containing nucleosideonly (NUKE-only) treatments and to investigate the factors influencing the physicians' decision for application of a nonestablished therapy. METHOD: Patients' characteristics and history were taken from the cohort database. To study the decision-making process, questionnaires were sent to all treating physicians. RESULTS: 49 patients were changed to TDF-containing NUKE-only treatment and 46 had a follow-up measurement of HI viremia. Virological failure occurred in 16 (35%) patients. Virological failure was associated with previous mono or dual therapy and with a regimen including didanosine or abacavir. No failure occurred in 15 patients without these predisposing factors. The main reasons for change to TDF-containing NUKE-only treatment were side effects and presumed favorable toxicity profile. The rationale behind this decision was mainly analogy to the zidovudine/lamivudine/abacavir maintenance therapy. CONCLUSION: TDF-containing NUKE-only treatment is associated with high early failure rates in patients with previous nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mono or dual therapy and in drug combinations containing didanosine or abacavir but not in patients without these predisposing factors. In HIV medicine, treatment strategies that are not evidence-based are followed by a minority of experienced physicians and are driven by patients' needs, mainly to minimize treatment side effects.

The use of mechanisms and modes of toxic action in integrated testing strategies: the report and recommendations of a workshop held as part of the European Union OSIRIS Integrated Project

This report on The Potential of Mode of Action (MoA) Information Derived from Non-testing and Screening Methodologies to Support Informed Hazard Assessment, resulted from a workshop organised within OSIRIS (Optimised Strategies for Risk Assessment of Industrial Chemicals through Integration of Non-test and Test Information), a project partly funded by the EU Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. The workshop was held in Liverpool, UK, on 30 October 2008, with 35 attendees. The goal of the OSIRIS project is to develop integrated testing strategies (ITS) fit for use in the REACH system, that would enable a significant increase in the use of non-testing information for regulatory decision making, and thus minimise the need for animal testing. One way to improve the evaluation of chemicals may be through categorisation by way of mechanisms or modes of toxic action. Defining such groups can enhance read-across possibilities and priority settings for certain toxic modes or chemical structures responsible for these toxic modes. Overall, this may result in a reduction of in vivo testing on organisms, through combining available data on mode of action and a focus on the potentially most-toxic groups. In this report, the possibilities of a mechanistic approach to assist in and guide ITS are explored, and the differences between human health and environmental areas are summarised.

Sugar concentration influences decision making in <i>Apis mellifera</i> L. workers during early-stage honey storage behaviour

Decision making in honeybees is based on in- formation which is acquired and processed in order to make choices between two or more al- ternatives. These choices lead to the expression of optimal behaviour strategies such as floral constancy. Optimal foraging strategies such as floral constancy improve a colony’s chances of survival, however to our knowledge, there has been no research on decision making based on optimal storage strategies. Here we show, using diagnostic radioentomology, that decision mak- ing in storer bees is influenced by nectar sugar concentrations and that, within 48 hours of col- lection, honeybees workers store carbohydrates in groups of cells with similar sugar concentra- tions in a nonrandom way. This behaviour, as evidenced by patchy spatial cell distributions, would help to hasten the ripening process by reducing the distance between cells of similar sugar concentrations. Thus, colonies which ex- hibit optimal storage strategies such as these would have an evolutionary advantage and im- prove colony survival expectations over less efficient colonies and it should be plausible to select colonies that exhibit these preferred traits.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Deregulation strategies and its regulating effects: The case of the termination of Social Assistance for rejected asylum seekers in Switzerland

Deregulation strategies and their regulating effects: The case of the termination of Social Assistance for rejected asylum seekers in Switzerland. In Switzerland, rejected asylum seekers no longer have any residence rights. In 2003 the Swiss state decided to terminate the so far granted social assistance for people with a non-entry decision on their asylum request. In 2008 the termination of social assistance was expanded to all rejected asylum seekers. Nevertheless, facing the impossibility of deporting them, the Swiss state entitled this group of people to emergency assistance. It is a basic, which is stated in the Swiss Federal constitution. In this context, new structures were established specially for rejected asylum seekers. These structures had to be set up, financed, controlled, managed and legitimized. For example, collective centres were set up exclusively for rejected asylum seekers. In this speech, I want to analyze the political and bureaucratic process of terminating social assistance for rejected asylum seekers. The exclusion of rejected asylum seekers from social aid was embedded in a wider austerity program of the Federal State. The Federal Migration Office had been requested to save money. The main official goal was to reduce the support of these illegalized people, reduce any structures that would prolong their stay on Swiss ground and to set incentives so that they would leave the country on their own. But during the implementation, new regulating effects emerged. Drawing on ethnographic material, I will highlight these “messy procedures” (Sciortino 2004). First, I will analyze the means and goals developed by the Federal authorities while conceptualising the termination of social assistance. Second, I will focus on the new built structures and elaborate the practices and legitimating strategies of the authorities. As a conclusion, I will analyze the ambivalences of these processes which, at the end, established specific structures for the “unwanted”.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Based on the Attentional Control Theory (ACT; Eysenck et al., 2007), performance efficiency is decreased in high-anxiety situations because worrying thoughts compete for attentional resources. A repeated-measures design (high/low state anxiety and high/low perceptual task demands) was used to test ACT explanations. Complex football situations were displayed to expert and non-expert football players in a decision making task in a controlled laboratory setting. Ratings of state anxiety and pupil diameter measures were used to check anxiety manipulations. Dependent variables were verbal response time and accuracy, mental effort ratings and visual search behavior (e.g., visual search rate). Results confirmed that an anxiety increase, indicated by higher state-anxiety ratings and larger pupil diameters, reduced processing efficiency for both groups (higher response times and mental effort ratings). Moreover, high task demands reduced the ability to shift attention between different locations for the expert group in the high anxiety condition only. Since particularly experts, who were expected to use more top-down strategies to guide visual attention under high perceptual task demands, showed less attentional shifts in the high compared to the low anxiety condition, as predicted by ACT, anxiety seems to impair the shifting function by interrupting the balance between top-down and bottom-up processes.