Credibility for sale

We develop a model where a sovereign’s incentive to repay its debt depends on the identity of its creditors. Higher exposure to official lenders improves incentives and thus credibility, for instance, because default would jeopardize the benefits from membership in a club (such as EU or EMU). But higher exposure also carries costs, because of reduced flexibility ex post and because official lenders may collude to extract rents. We characterize the equilibrium composition of debt across creditor groups as well as equilibrium debt prices. Our model can account for an important— and still unexplained—feature of sovereign debt crises: Official lending to sovereigns takes place only in times of debt distress and carries a favorable rate. It also offers a novel perspective on the interaction between deficits, debt overhang and the availability of official funds in determining default risk.

Risk factors promoting hypertensive crises: evidence from a longitudinal study

Background Current knowledge about risk factors promoting hypertensive crisis originates from retrospective data. Therefore, potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis were assessed in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods Eighty-nine patients of the medical outpatient unit at the University Hospital of Bern (Bern, Switzerland) with previously diagnosed hypertension participated in this study. At baseline, 33 potential risk factors were assessed. All patients were followed-up for the outcome of hypertensive crisis. Cox regression models were used to detect relationships between risk factors and hypertensive crisis (defined as acute rise of systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥200mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥120mmHg). Results The mean duration of follow-up was 1.6 ± 0.3 years (range 1.0–2.4 years). Four patients (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients (15.3%) experienced hypertensive crisis during follow-up. Several potential risk factors were significantly associated with hypertensive crisis: female sex, higher grades of obesity, the presence of a hypertensive or coronary heart disease, the presence of a somatoform disorder, a higher number of antihypertensive drugs, and nonadherence to medication. As measured by the hazard ratio, nonadherence was the most important factor associated with hypertensive crisis (hazard ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 1.59–21.77, P < 0.01). Conclusions This study identified several potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis. Results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that improvement of medical adherence in antihypertensive therapy would help to prevent hypertensive crises. However, larger studies are needed to assess potential confounding, other risk factors and the possibility of interaction between predictors.

[Endocrine crises]

Pituitary apoplexy, diabetes insipidus, thyroid storm, myxedema coma, parathyrotoxic crisis, hypocalcemia tetany, pheochromocytoma and Addison crisis, diabetic ketoacidosis, diabetic hyperosmolar nonketotic coma, hypoglycemia and carcinoid crisis are the most important endocrine crises. Some of them are common, others very rare. All physicians nevertheless need to have at least a basic knowledge of all of them, since symptoms and signs of endocrine crises overlap with those of other severe disease states, and the failure to recognise endocrine crises as such and to begin rapidly the specific therapy can have fatal consequences.

Do Words Matter? The Impact of Communication on the PIIGS' CDS and Bond Yield Spreads during Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis

The paper aims to shed light on the role of communication in the European debt crisis. It examines the effects of public statements by ECB Governing Council members, EU officials and national representatives on the PIIGS' CDS and bond yield spreads. The focus lies on dovish statements that signal strong determination in the rescue of indebted countries, and hawkish statements that indicate limited commitment to support the PIIGS and protect its creditors. The analysis of daily data for the period between January 1, 2009 and August 12, 2011 in an EGARCH framework suggests that communication by representatives of Germany, France, and the EU as well as ECB Governing Council members had an immediate impact on both types of securities. No effects.