Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Correlation of bone defect dimensions with healing outcome one year after apical surgery

This clinical study prospectively evaluated the healing outcome 1 year after apical surgery in relation to bony crypt dimensions measured intraoperatively. The study cohort included 183 teeth in an equal number of patients. For statistical analysis, results were dichotomized (healed versus non-healed cases). The overall success rate was 83% (healed cases). Healing outcome was not significantly related to the level and height of the facial bone plate. In contrast, a significant difference was found for the mean size of the bony crypt when healed cases (395 mm(3)) were compared with non-healed cases (554 mm(3)). In addition, healed cases had a significantly shorter mean distance (4.30 mm) from the facial bone surface to the root canal (horizontal access) compared with non-healed cases (5.13 mm). With logistic regression, however, the only parameter found to be significantly related to healing outcome was the length of the access window to the bony crypt.

Genetic Distance between Species Predicts Novel Trait Expression in Their Hybrids

Interspecific hybridization can generate transgressive hybrid phenotypes with extreme trait values exceeding the combined range of the parental species. Such variation can enlarge the working surface for natural selection, and may facilitate the evolution of novel adaptations where ecological opportunity exists. The number of quantitative trait loci fixed for different alleles in different species should increase with time since speciation. If transgression is caused by complementary gene action or epistasis, hybrids between more distant species should be more likely to display transgressive phenotypes. To test this prediction we collected data on transgression frequency from the literature, estimated genetic distances between the hybridizing species from gene sequences, and calculated the relationship between the two using phylogenetically controlled methods. We also tested if parental phenotypic divergence affected the occurrence of transgression. We found a highly significant positive correlation between transgression frequency and genetic distance in eudicot plants explaining 43% of the variance in transgression frequency. In total, 36% of the measured traits were transgressive. The predicted effect of time since speciation on transgressive segregation was unconfounded by the potentially conflicting effects of phenotypic differentiation between species. Our analysis demonstrates that the potential impact hybridization may have on phenotypic evolution is predictable from the genetic distance between species.

High-resolution sequence stratigraphic correlation in the Upper Jurassic (Kimmeridgian)–Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) peritidal carbonate deposits (Western Taurides, Turkey)

Upper Jurassic (Kimmeridgian)±Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) inner platform carbonates in the Western Taurides are composed of metre-scale upward-shallowing cyclic deposits (parasequences) and important karstic surfaces capping some of the cycles. Peritidal cycles (shallow subtidal facies capped by tidal-¯at laminites or fenestrate limestones) are regressive- and transgressive-prone (upward-deepening followed by upward-shallowing facies trends). Subtidal cycles are of two types and indicate incomplete shallowing. Submerged subtidal cycles are composed of deeper subtidal facies overlain by shallow subtidal facies. Exposed subtidal cycles consist of deeper subtidal facies overlain by shallow subtidal facies that are capped by features indicative of prolonged subaerial exposure. Subtidal facies occur characteristically in the Jurassic, while peritidal cycles are typical for the Lower Cretaceous of the region. Within the foraminiferal and dasyclad algal biostratigraphic framework, four karst breccia levels are recognized as the boundaries of major second-order cycles, introduced for the ®rst time in this study. These levels correspond to the Kimmeridgian±Portlandian boundary, mid-Early Valanginian, mid-Early Aptian and mid-Cenomanian and represent important sea level falls which affected the distribution of foraminiferal fauna and dasyclad ¯ora of the Taurus carbonate platform. Within the Kimmeridgian±Cenomanian interval 26 third-order sequences (types 1 and 2) are recognized. These sequences are the records of eustatic sea level ¯uctuations rather than the records of local tectonic events because the boundaries of the sequences representing 1±4 Ma intervals are correlative with global sea level falls. Third-order sequences and metre-scale cyclic deposits are the major units used for long-distance, high-resolution sequence stratigraphic correlation in the Western Taurides. Metre-scale cyclic deposits (parasequences) in the Cretaceous show genetical stacking patterns within third-order sequences and correspond to fourth-order sequences representing 100±200 ka. These cycles are possibly the E2 signal (126 ka) of the orbital eccentricity cycles of the Milankovitch band. The slight deviation of values, calculated for parasequences, from the mean value of eccentricity cycles can be explained by the currently imprecise geochronology established in the Cretaceous and missed sea level oscillations when the platform lay above fluctuating sea level.