The Hidden World of Multilateralism? Treaty Commitments of Newly Democratized States in Europe

Why do new EU democracies engage in multilateralism? The dominant explanation proposes that new democracies use international treaties to lock in domestic reforms. This article offers a novel explanation as to why new EU democracies participate in multilateral treaties. We argue that ratifying a treaty serves three external signaling purposes (addressing recognition concerns; increasing strategic autonomy, and pleasing the EU). We test our argument through a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, we apply event history analysis. Drawing on a new ratification data set comprising 76 multilateral treaties, we illustrate the prominent role of new EU democracies in multilateralism as compared to other new democracies. Second, to assess the importance of external signaling in the decision to ratify multilateral treaties, we examine parliamentary ratification debates in selected Central and Eastern European countries. Third, we compare parliamentary discussions across European and non-European new democracies to demonstrate the different motives driving their approaches toward multilateralism.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.

Context-Oriented Programming

Context-dependent behavior is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of application domains, from pervasive computing to common business applications. Unfortunately, mainstream programming languages do not provide mechanisms that enable software entities to adapt their behavior dynamically to the current execution context. This leads developers to adopt convoluted designs to achieve the necessary runtime flexibility. We propose a new programming technique called Context-oriented Programming (COP) which addresses this problem. COP treats context explicitly, and provides mechanisms to dynamically adapt behavior in reaction to changes in context, even after system deployment at runtime. In this paper we lay the foundations of COP, show how dynamic layer activation enables multi-dimensional dispatch, illustrate the application of COP by examples in several language extensions, and demonstrate that COP is largely independent of other commitments to programming style.

‘Continue or terminate?’ Determinants of long-term volunteering in sports clubs

This study analyzed the determinants underlying sports club volunteers' tendencies to continue or terminate their long-term commitment to volunteering in order to help sports clubs improve their volunteer management. Their risk of terminating was viewed in terms of subjective expectations and evaluations (satisfaction) regarding club-related working conditions and normative commitments (solidarity) to the sports club. These relationships were tested empirically with an online questionnaire of 441 sports club volunteers in a selection of 45 Swiss sports clubs. Results showed that the constructs orientation toward collective solidarity and volunteer job satisfaction correlated positively with long-term volunteering commitment. The effect of the former was stronger than that of the latter. Volunteers with a higher orientation toward collective solidarity were unlikely to terminate their voluntary engagement in their club. The discussion presents recommendations to help clubs retain volunteers.

The Appellate Body Approach to the Applicability of Article XX GATT In the Light of China - Raw Materials: A Missed Opportunity?

This article attempts to analyse and investigate the implications of the approach to the applicability of Article XX GATT adopted in the recent China – Raw Materials. Using the decision on the non-availability of Article XX defences for violations of China’s WTO-plus commitments on export duties as a backdrop, it scrutinizes the more general, ‘systemic’ approach to the applicability of Article XX exceptions developed by theWTO dispute settlement bodies, and sheds light on the implications of such approach with respect to the relationship between GATT 1994 andWTO obligations arising from different instruments of theWTOAgreement, such as new members’ accession protocols. It also suggests that an exception to this general approach could be envisaged when the fundamental environmental goals protected under Article XX b) and g) are at stake.

Food Security and Agri-Foreign Direct Investment in Weak States: Finding the Governance Gap to Avoid ‘Land Grab’

Food security is important. A rising world population coupled with climate change creates growing pressure on global world food supplies. States alleviate this pressure domestically by attracting agri-foreign direct investment (agri-FDI). This is a high-risk strategy for weak states: the state may gain valuable foreign currency, technology and debt-free growth; but equally, investors may fail to deliver on their commitments and exploit weak domestic legal infrastructure to ‘grab’ large areas of prime agricultural land, leaving only marginal land for domestic production. A net loss to local food security and to the national economy results. This is problematic because the state must continue to guarantee its citizens’ right to food and property. Agri-FDI needs close regulation to maximise its benefit. This article maps the multilevel system of governance covering agri-FDI. We show how this system creates asymmetric rights in favour of the investor to the detriment of the host state’s food security and how these problems might be alleviated.

The WTO and Food Security: What’s Wrong with the Rules?

The WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) is the predominant multilateral legal framework governing agricultural trade. The objective of the AoA is to liberalise trade in agriculture through reductions in tariffs, domestic support and export subsidies. The AoA has not, however, ‘levelled the playing field’ and has not resulted in the equitable distribution of food, particularly for the poorer developing countries. On the other hand, support for small farmers does not ensure food security for the poor. While food security has no simple solutions such as “free trade is good for you”, reform proposals for trade rules which only address agricultural policy instruments fail to account for consumer and other interests: neither tariff reductions and subsidy disciplines, nor safeguards and other measures of producer protection can automatically increase food security. Rather, what is needed is the full and proper implementation of a number of commitments which the international community has already entered into in various human rights treaties, but which even the envisaged results of the now failed Doha Round negotiations could not ensure without revisiting relevant multilateral trade and investment rules.

Loss to follow-up of HIV-infected women after delivery: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION HIV-infected pregnant women are very likely to engage in HIV medical care to prevent transmission of HIV to their newborn. After delivery, however, childcare and competing commitments might lead to disengagement from HIV care. The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU. METHODS We used data on 719 pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2012 and with information on follow-up visits available. Two LTFU events were defined: no clinical visit for >180 days and no visit for >360 days in the year after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for a LTFU event after delivery. RESULTS Median maternal age at delivery was 32 years (IQR 28-36), 357 (49%) women were black, 280 (39%) white, 56 (8%) Asian and 4% other ethnicities. One hundred and seven (15%) women reported any history of IDU. The majority (524, 73%) of women received their HIV diagnosis before pregnancy, most of those (413, 79%) had lived with diagnosed HIV longer than three years and two-thirds (342, 65%) were already on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at time of conception. Of the 181 women diagnosed during pregnancy by a screening test, 80 (44%) were diagnosed in the first trimester, 67 (37%) in the second and 34 (19%) in the third trimester. Of 357 (69%) women who had been seen in HIV medical care during three months before conception, 93% achieved an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery. Of 62 (12%) women with the last medical visit more than six months before conception, only 72% achieved an undetectable VL (p=0.001). Overall, 247 (34%) women were LTFU over 180 days in the year after delivery and 86 (12%) women were LTFU over 360 days with 43 (50%) of those women returning. Being LTFU for 180 days was significantly associated with history of intravenous drug use (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.09-2.77, p=0.021) and not achieving an undetectable VL at delivery (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03-3.11, p=0.040) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity, time of HIV diagnosis and being on ART at conception. CONCLUSIONS Women with a history of IDU and women with a detectable VL at delivery were more likely to be LTFU after delivery. This is of concern regarding their own health, as well as risk for sexual partners and subsequent pregnancies. Further strategies should be developed to enhance retention in medical care beyond pregnancy.