Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

A dose-controlled system for air-liquid interface cell exposure and application to zinc oxide nanoparticles

BACKGROUND: Engineered nanoparticles are becoming increasingly ubiquitous and their toxicological effects on human health, as well as on the ecosystem, have become a concern. Since initial contact with nanoparticles occurs at the epithelium in the lungs (or skin, or eyes), in vitro cell studies with nanoparticles require dose-controlled systems for delivery of nanoparticles to epithelial cells cultured at the air-liquid interface. RESULTS: A novel air-liquid interface cell exposure system (ALICE) for nanoparticles in liquids is presented and validated. The ALICE generates a dense cloud of droplets with a vibrating membrane nebulizer and utilizes combined cloud settling and single particle sedimentation for fast (~10 min; entire exposure), repeatable (<12%), low-stress and efficient delivery of nanoparticles, or dissolved substances, to cells cultured at the air-liquid interface. Validation with various types of nanoparticles (Au, ZnO and carbon black nanoparticles) and solutes (such as NaCl) showed that the ALICE provided spatially uniform deposition (<1.6% variability) and had no adverse effect on the viability of a widely used alveolar human epithelial-like cell line (A549). The cell deposited dose can be controlled with a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) over a dynamic range of at least 0.02-200 mug/cm(2). The cell-specific deposition efficiency is currently limited to 0.072 (7.2% for two commercially available 6-er transwell plates), but a deposition efficiency of up to 0.57 (57%) is possible for better cell coverage of the exposure chamber. Dose-response measurements with ZnO nanoparticles (0.3-8.5 mug/cm(2)) showed significant differences in mRNA expression of pro-inflammatory (IL-8) and oxidative stress (HO-1) markers when comparing submerged and air-liquid interface exposures. Both exposure methods showed no cellular response below 1 mug/cm(2 )ZnO, which indicates that ZnO nanoparticles are not toxic at occupationally allowed exposure levels. CONCLUSION: The ALICE is a useful tool for dose-controlled nanoparticle (or solute) exposure of cells at the air-liquid interface. Significant differences between cellular response after ZnO nanoparticle exposure under submerged and air-liquid interface conditions suggest that pharmaceutical and toxicological studies with inhaled (nano-)particles should be performed under the more realistic air-liquid interface, rather than submerged cell conditions.

Improving Management of Distributed Services Using Correlations and Predictions in SLA-Driven Cloud Computing Systems

Recent advancements in cloud computing have enabled the proliferation of distributed applications, which require management and control of multiple services. However, without an efficient mechanism for scaling services in response to changing environmental conditions and number of users, application performance might suffer, leading to Service Level Agreement (SLA) violations and inefficient use of hardware resources. We introduce a system for controlling the complexity of scaling applications composed of multiple services using mechanisms based on fulfillment of SLAs. We present how service monitoring information can be used in conjunction with service level objectives, predictions, and correlations between performance indicators for optimizing the allocation of services belonging to distributed applications. We validate our models using experiments and simulations involving a distributed enterprise information system. We show how discovering correlations between application performance indicators can be used as a basis for creating refined service level objectives, which can then be used for scaling the application and improving the overall application's performance under similar conditions.

In vitro accuracy evaluation of image-guided robot system for direct cochlear access

HYPOTHESIS A previously developed image-guided robot system can safely drill a tunnel from the lateral mastoid surface, through the facial recess, to the middle ear, as a viable alternative to conventional mastoidectomy for cochlear electrode insertion. BACKGROUND Direct cochlear access (DCA) provides a minimally invasive tunnel from the lateral surface of the mastoid through the facial recess to the middle ear for cochlear electrode insertion. A safe and effective tunnel drilled through the narrow facial recess requires a highly accurate image-guided surgical system. Previous attempts have relied on patient-specific templates and robotic systems to guide drilling tools. In this study, we report on improvements made to an image-guided surgical robot system developed specifically for this purpose and the resulting accuracy achieved in vitro. MATERIALS AND METHODS The proposed image-guided robotic DCA procedure was carried out bilaterally on 4 whole head cadaver specimens. Specimens were implanted with titanium fiducial markers and imaged with cone-beam CT. A preoperative plan was created using a custom software package wherein relevant anatomical structures of the facial recess were segmented, and a drill trajectory targeting the round window was defined. Patient-to-image registration was performed with the custom robot system to reference the preoperative plan, and the DCA tunnel was drilled in 3 stages with progressively longer drill bits. The position of the drilled tunnel was defined as a line fitted to a point cloud of the segmented tunnel using principle component analysis (PCA function in MatLab). The accuracy of the DCA was then assessed by coregistering preoperative and postoperative image data and measuring the deviation of the drilled tunnel from the plan. The final step of electrode insertion was also performed through the DCA tunnel after manual removal of the promontory through the external auditory canal. RESULTS Drilling error was defined as the lateral deviation of the tool in the plane perpendicular to the drill axis (excluding depth error). Errors of 0.08 ± 0.05 mm and 0.15 ± 0.08 mm were measured on the lateral mastoid surface and at the target on the round window, respectively (n =8). Full electrode insertion was possible for 7 cases. In 1 case, the electrode was partially inserted with 1 contact pair external to the cochlea. CONCLUSION The purpose-built robot system was able to perform a safe and reliable DCA for cochlear implantation. The workflow implemented in this study mimics the envisioned clinical procedure showing the feasibility of future clinical implementation.

SLA-driven predictive orchestration for distributed cloud-based mobile services

We describe a system for performing SLA-driven management and orchestration of distributed infrastructures composed of services supporting mobile computing use cases. In particular, we focus on a Follow-Me Cloud scenario in which we consider mobile users accessing cloud-enable services. We combine a SLA-driven approach to infrastructure optimization, with forecast-based performance degradation preventive actions and pattern detection for supporting mobile cloud infrastructure management. We present our system's information model and architecture including the algorithmic support and the proposed scenarios for system evaluation.

Mobile Cloud Networking: Virtualisation of Cellular Networks

Virtualisation of cellular networks can be seen as a way to significantly reduce the complexity of processes, required nowadays to provide reliable cellular networks. The Future Communication Architecture for Mobile Cloud Services: Mobile Cloud Networking (MCN) is a EU FP7 Large-scale Integrating Project (IP) funded by the European Commission that is focusing on cloud computing concepts to achieve virtualisation of cellular networks. It aims at the development of a fully cloud-based mobile communication and application platform, or more specifically, it aims to investigate, implement and evaluate the technological foundations for the mobile communication system of Long Term Evolution (LTE), based on Mobile Network plus Decentralized Computing plus Smart Storage offered as one atomic service: On-Demand, Elastic and Pay-As-You-Go. This paper provides a brief overview of the MCN project and discusses the challenges that need to be solved.

Probabilistic approach to cloud and snow detection on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery

Derivation of probability estimates complementary to geophysical data sets has gained special attention over the last years. Information about a confidence level of provided physical quantities is required to construct an error budget of higher-level products and to correctly interpret final results of a particular analysis. Regarding the generation of products based on satellite data a common input consists of a cloud mask which allows discrimination between surface and cloud signals. Further the surface information is divided between snow and snow-free components. At any step of this discrimination process a misclassification in a cloud/snow mask propagates to higher-level products and may alter their usability. Within this scope a novel probabilistic cloud mask (PCM) algorithm suited for the 1 km × 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data is proposed which provides three types of probability estimates between: cloudy/clear-sky, cloudy/snow and clear-sky/snow conditions. As opposed to the majority of available techniques which are usually based on the decision-tree approach in the PCM algorithm all spectral, angular and ancillary information is used in a single step to retrieve probability estimates from the precomputed look-up tables (LUTs). Moreover, the issue of derivation of a single threshold value for a spectral test was overcome by the concept of multidimensional information space which is divided into small bins by an extensive set of intervals. The discrimination between snow and ice clouds and detection of broken, thin clouds was enhanced by means of the invariant coordinate system (ICS) transformation. The study area covers a wide range of environmental conditions spanning from Iceland through central Europe to northern parts of Africa which exhibit diverse difficulties for cloud/snow masking algorithms. The retrieved PCM cloud classification was compared to the Polar Platform System (PPS) version 2012 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 cloud masks, SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) weather reports, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) vertical feature mask version 3 and to MODIS collection 5 snow mask. The outcomes of conducted analyses proved fine detection skills of the PCM method with results comparable to or better than the reference PPS algorithm.

SLA-Driven Simulation of Multi-Tenant Scalable Cloud-Distributed Enterprise Information Systems

Cloud Computing is an enabler for delivering large-scale, distributed enterprise applications with strict requirements in terms of performance. It is often the case that such applications have complex scaling and Service Level Agreement (SLA) management requirements. In this paper we present a simulation approach for validating and comparing SLA-aware scaling policies using the CloudSim simulator, using data from an actual Distributed Enterprise Information System (dEIS). We extend CloudSim with concurrent and multi-tenant task simulation capabilities. We then show how different scaling policies can be used for simulating multiple dEIS applications. We present multiple experiments depicting the impact of VM scaling on both datacenter energy consumption and dEIS performance indicators.

Daytime Low Stratiform Cloud Detection on AVHRR Imagery

The near-real time retrieval of low stratiform cloud (LSC) coverage is of vital interest for such disciplines as meteorology, transport safety, economy and air quality. Within this scope, a novel methodology is proposed which provides the LSC occurrence probability estimates for a satellite scene. The algorithm is suited for the 1 × 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data and was trained and validated against collocated SYNOP observations. Utilisation of these two combined data sources requires a formulation of constraints in order to discriminate cases where the LSC is overlaid by higher clouds. The LSC classification process is based on six features which are first converted to the integer form by step functions and combined by means of bitwise operations. Consequently, a set of values reflecting a unique combination of those features is derived which is further employed to extract the LSC occurrence probability estimates from the precomputed look-up vectors (LUV). Although the validation analyses confirmed good performance of the algorithm, some inevitable misclassification with other optically thick clouds were reported. Moreover, the comparison against Polar Platform System (PPS) cloud-type product revealed superior classification accuracy. From the temporal perspective, the acquired results reported a presence of diurnal and annual LSC probability cycles over Europe.

Simulation of SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms for cloud-distributed applications

Cloud Computing has evolved to become an enabler for delivering access to large scale distributed applications running on managed network-connected computing systems. This makes possible hosting Distributed Enterprise Information Systems (dEISs) in cloud environments, while enforcing strict performance and quality of service requirements, defined using Service Level Agreements (SLAs). {SLAs} define the performance boundaries of distributed applications, and are enforced by a cloud management system (CMS) dynamically allocating the available computing resources to the cloud services. We present two novel VM-scaling algorithms focused on dEIS systems, which optimally detect most appropriate scaling conditions using performance-models of distributed applications derived from constant-workload benchmarks, together with SLA-specified performance constraints. We simulate the VM-scaling algorithms in a cloud simulator and compare against trace-based performance models of dEISs. We compare a total of three SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms (one using prediction mechanisms) based on a real-world application scenario involving a large variable number of users. Our results show that it is beneficial to use autoregressive predictive SLA-driven scaling algorithms in cloud management systems for guaranteeing performance invariants of distributed cloud applications, as opposed to using only reactive SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms.

Service Level Agreements-Driven Management of Distributed Applications in Cloud Computing Environments

Cloud Computing enables provisioning and distribution of highly scalable services in a reliable, on-demand and sustainable manner. However, objectives of managing enterprise distributed applications in cloud environments under Service Level Agreement (SLA) constraints lead to challenges for maintaining optimal resource control. Furthermore, conflicting objectives in management of cloud infrastructure and distributed applications might lead to violations of SLAs and inefficient use of hardware and software resources. This dissertation focusses on how SLAs can be used as an input to the cloud management system, increasing the efficiency of allocating resources, as well as that of infrastructure scaling. First, we present an extended SLA semantic model for modelling complex service-dependencies in distributed applications, and for enabling automated cloud infrastructure management operations. Second, we describe a multi-objective VM allocation algorithm for optimised resource allocation in infrastructure clouds. Third, we describe a method of discovering relations between the performance indicators of services belonging to distributed applications and then using these relations for building scaling rules that a CMS can use for automated management of VMs. Fourth, we introduce two novel VM-scaling algorithms, which optimally scale systems composed of VMs, based on given SLA performance constraints. All presented research works were implemented and tested using enterprise distributed applications.

Service level agreements-driven management of distributed applications in cloud computing environments

Advancements in cloud computing have enabled the proliferation of distributed applications, which require management and control of multiple services. However, without an efficient mechanism for scaling services in response to changing workload conditions, such as number of connected users, application performance might suffer, leading to violations of Service Level Agreements (SLA) and possible inefficient use of hardware resources. Combining dynamic application requirements with the increased use of virtualised computing resources creates a challenging resource Management context for application and cloud-infrastructure owners. In such complex environments, business entities use SLAs as a means for specifying quantitative and qualitative requirements of services. There are several challenges in running distributed enterprise applications in cloud environments, ranging from the instantiation of service VMs in the correct order using an adequate quantity of computing resources, to adapting the number of running services in response to varying external loads, such as number of users. The application owner is interested in finding the optimum amount of computing and network resources to use for ensuring that the performance requirements of all her/his applications are met. She/he is also interested in appropriately scaling the distributed services so that application performance guarantees are maintained even under dynamic workload conditions. Similarly, the infrastructure Providers are interested in optimally provisioning the virtual resources onto the available physical infrastructure so that her/his operational costs are minimized, while maximizing the performance of tenants’ applications. Motivated by the complexities associated with the management and scaling of distributed applications, while satisfying multiple objectives (related to both consumers and providers of cloud resources), this thesis proposes a cloud resource management platform able to dynamically provision and coordinate the various lifecycle actions on both virtual and physical cloud resources using semantically enriched SLAs. The system focuses on dynamic sizing (scaling) of virtual infrastructures composed of virtual machines (VM) bounded application services. We describe several algorithms for adapting the number of VMs allocated to the distributed application in response to changing workload conditions, based on SLA-defined performance guarantees. We also present a framework for dynamic composition of scaling rules for distributed service, which used benchmark-generated application Monitoring traces. We show how these scaling rules can be combined and included into semantic SLAs for controlling allocation of services. We also provide a detailed description of the multi-objective infrastructure resource allocation problem and various approaches to satisfying this problem. We present a resource management system based on a genetic algorithm, which performs allocation of virtual resources, while considering the optimization of multiple criteria. We prove that our approach significantly outperforms reactive VM-scaling algorithms as well as heuristic-based VM-allocation approaches.