When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

On the interaction of attentional focus and gaze: The quiet eye inhibits focus-related performance decrements

To date, despite a large body of evidence in favor of the advantage of an effect-related focus of attention compared with a movement-related focus of attention in motor control and learning, the role of vision in this context remains unclear. Therefore, in a golf-putting study, the relation between attentional focus and gaze behavior (in particular, quiet eye, or QE) was investigated. First, the advantage of an effect-related focus, as well as of a long QE duration, could be replicated. Furthermore, in the online-demanding task of golf putting, high performance was associated with later QE offsets. Most decisively, an interaction between attentional focus and gaze behavior was revealed in such a way that the efficiency of the QE selectively manifested under movement-related focus instructions. As these findings suggest neither additive effects nor a causal chain, an alternative hypothesis is introduced explaining positive QE effects by the inhibition of not-to-be parameterized movement variants.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Intravaginal practices, bacterial vaginosis, and HIV infection in women: individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. Methods and Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I2 values 0.0%–16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04–1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated.

Fic domain-catalyzed adenylylation: insight provided by the structural analysis of the type IV secretion system effector BepA

Numerous bacterial pathogens subvert cellular functions of eukaryotic host cells by the injection of effector proteins via dedicated secretion systems. The type IV secretion system (T4SS) effector protein BepA from Bartonella henselae is composed of an N-terminal Fic domain and a C-terminal Bartonella intracellular delivery domain, the latter being responsible for T4SS-mediated translocation into host cells. A proteolysis resistant fragment (residues 10-302) that includes the Fic domain shows autoadenylylation activity and adenylyl transfer onto Hela cell extract proteins as demonstrated by autoradiography on incubation with α-[(32)P]-ATP. Its crystal structure, determined to 2.9-Å resolution by the SeMet-SAD method, exhibits the canonical Fic fold including the HPFxxGNGRxxR signature motif with several elaborations in loop regions and an additional β-rich domain at the C-terminus. On crystal soaking with ATP/Mg(2+), additional electron density indicated the presence of a PP(i) /Mg(2+) moiety, the side product of the adenylylation reaction, in the anion binding nest of the signature motif. On the basis of this information and that of the recent structure of IbpA(Fic2) in complex with the eukaryotic target protein Cdc42, we present a detailed model for the ternary complex of Fic with the two substrates, ATP/Mg(2+) and target tyrosine. The model is consistent with an in-line nucleophilic attack of the deprotonated side-chain hydroxyl group onto the α-phosphorus of the nucleotide to accomplish AMP transfer. Furthermore, a general, sequence-independent mechanism of target positioning through antiparallel β-strand interactions between enzyme and target is suggested.

Detecting and resolving position-dependent temperature effects in real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction

Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) depends on precise temperature control of the sample during cycling. In the current study, we investigated how temperature variation in plate-based qPCR instruments influences qPCR results. Temperature variation was measured by amplicon melting analysis as a convenient means to assess well-to-well differences. Multiple technical replicates of several SYBR Green I-based qPCR assays allowed correlation of relative well temperature to quantification cycle. We found that inadequate template denaturation results in an inverse correlation and requires increasing the denaturation temperature, adding a DNA destabilizing agent, or pretreating with a restriction enzyme. In contrast, inadequate primer annealing results in a direct correlation and requires lowering the annealing temperature. Significant correlations were found in 18 of 25 assays. The critical nature of temperature-dependent effects was shown in a blinded study of 29 patients for the diagnosis of Prader-Willy and Angelman syndromes, where eight diagnoses were incorrect unless temperature-dependent effects were controlled. A method to detect temperature-dependent effects by pairwise comparisons of replicates in routine experiments is presented and applied. Systematic temperature errors in qPCR instruments can be recognized and their effects eliminated when high precision is required in quantitative genetic diagnostics and critical complementary DNA analyses.

Varying spin state composition by the choice of capping ligand in a family of molecular chains: detailed analysis of magnetic properties of chromium(III) horseshoes

We report a detailed physical analysis on a family of isolated, antiferro-magnetically (AF) coupled, chromium(III) finite chains, of general formula (Cr(RCO(2))(2)F)(n) where the chain length n = 6 or 7. Additionally, the chains are capped with a selection of possible terminating ligands, including hfac (= 1,1,1,5,5,5-hexafluoropentane-2,4-dionate(1-)), acac (= pentane-2,4-dionate(1-)) or (F)(3). Measurements by inelastic neutron scattering (INS), magnetometery and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy have been used to study how the electronic properties are affected by n and capping ligand type. These comparisons allowed the subtle electronic effects the choice of capping ligand makes for odd member spin 3/2 ground state and even membered spin 0 ground state chains to be investigated. For this investigation full characterisation of physical properties have been performed with spin Hamiltonian parameterisation, including the determination of Heisenberg exchange coupling constants and single ion axial and rhombic anisotropy. We reveal how the quantum spin energy levels of odd or even membered chains can be modified by the type of capping ligand terminating the chain. Choice of capping ligands enables Cr-Cr exchange coupling to be adjusted by 0, 4 or 24%, relative to Cr-Cr exchange coupling within the body of the chain, by the substitution of hfac, acac or (F)(3) capping ligands to the ends of the chain, respectively. The manipulation of quantum spin levels via ligands which play no role in super-exchange, is of general interest to the practise of spin Hamilton modelling, where such second order effects are generally not considered of relevance to magnetic properties.

A missense mutation in the skeletal muscle chloride channel 1 (CLCN1) as candidate causal mutation for congenital myotonia in a New Forest pony

A 7-month-old New Forest foal presented for episodes of recumbency and stiffness with myotonic discharges on electromyography. The observed phenotype resembled congenital myotonia caused by CLCN1 mutations in goats and humans. Mutation of the CLCN1 gene was considered as possible cause and mutation analysis was performed. The affected foal was homozygous for a missense mutation (c.1775A>C, p.D592A) located in a well conserved domain of the CLCN1 gene. The mutation showed a recessive mode of inheritance within the reported pony family. Therefore, this CLCN1 polymorphism is considered to be a possible cause of congenital myotonia.

Is the allegiance effect an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences between treatments? a meta-analysis

Many meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies found a substantial association of researcher allegiance (RA) and relative treatment effects. Therefore, RA is regarded as a biasing factor in comparative outcome research (RA bias hypothesis). However, the RA bias hypothesis has been criticized as causality might be reversed. That is, RA might be a reflection of true efficacy differences between treatments (true efficacy hypothesis). Consequently, the RA-outcome association would not be indicative of bias but an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences. This meta-analysis tested the validity of the true efficacy hypothesis. This was done by controlling the RA-outcome association for true efficacy differences by restricting analysis to direct comparisons of treatments with equivalent efficacy. We included direct comparisons of different versions of trauma-focused therapy (TFT) in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). RA was measured from the research reports. Relative effect sizes for symptoms of PTSD were calculated. Random effects meta-regression was conducted. Twenty-nine comparisons of TFTs from 20 studies were identified. Initial heterogeneity among relative effect sizes was low. RA was a significant predictor of outcome and explained 12% of the variance in outcomes. The true efficacy hypothesis predicted the RA-outcome association to be zero; however, a substantial association was found. Thus, this study does not support the true efficacy hypothesis. Given findings from psychotherapy research and other fields that support a biasing influence of researcher preferences, RA should be regarded as a causal factor and conceptualized as a threat to the validity of conclusions from comparative outcome studies.