14 resultados para catchments groundwater geophysics hydrology conceptual model
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
Despite promising cost saving potential, many offshore software projects fail to realize the expected benefits. A frequent source of failure lies in the insufficient transfer of knowledge during the transition phase. Former literature has reported cases where some domains of knowledge were successfully transferred to vendor personnel whereas others were not. There is further evidence that the actual knowledge transfer processes often vary from case to case. This raises the question whether there is a systematic relationship between the chosen knowledge transfer process and know-ledge transfer success. This paper introduces a dynamic perspective that distinguishes different types of knowledge transfer processes explaining under which circumstances which type is deemed most appropriate to successfully transfer knowledge. Our paper draws on knowledge transfer literature, the Model of Work-Based Learning and theories from cognitive psychology to show how characteristics of know-ledge and the absorptive capacity of knowledge recipients fit particular knowledge transfer processes. The knowledge transfer processes are conceptualized as combinations of generic knowledge transfer activities. This results in six gestalts of know-ledge transfer processes, each representing a fit between the characteristics of the knowledge process and the characteristics of the knowledge to be transferred and the absorptive capacity of the knowledge recipient.
Resumo:
This chapter introduces a conceptual model to combine creativity techniques with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) and aims to support knowledge management methods by improving expert knowledge acquisition and aggregation. The aim of the conceptual model is to represent acquired knowledge in a manner that is as computer-understandable as possible with the intention of developing automated reasoning in the future as part of intelligent information systems. The formal represented knowledge thus may provide businesses with intelligent information integration. To this end, we introduce and evaluate various creativity techniques with a list of attributes to define the most suitable to combine with FCMs. This proposed combination enables enhanced knowledge management through the acquisition and representation of expert knowledge with FCMs. Our evaluation indicates that the creativity technique known as mind mapping is the most suitable technique in our set. Finally, a scenario from stakeholder management demonstrates the combination of mind mapping with FCMs as an integrated system.
Resumo:
Lumbar spinal instability (LSI) is a common spinal disorder and can be associated with substantial disability. The concept of defining clinically relevant classifications of disease or 'target condition' is used in diagnostic research. Applying this concept to LSI we hypothesize that a set of clinical and radiological criteria can be developed to identify patients with this target condition who are at high risk of 'irreversible' decompensated LSI for whom surgery becomes the treatment of choice. In LSI, structural deterioration of the lumbar disc initiates a degenerative cascade of segmental instability. Over time, radiographic signs become visible: traction spurs, facet joint degeneration, misalignment, stenosis, olisthesis and de novo scoliosis. Ligaments, joint capsules, local and distant musculature are the functional elements of the lumbar motion segment. Influenced by non-functional factors, these functional elements allow a compensation of degeneration of the motion segment. Compensation may happen on each step of the degenerative cascade but cannot reverse it. However, compensation of LSI may lead to an alleviation or resolution of clinical symptoms. In return, the target condition of decompensation of LSI may cause the new occurrence of symptoms and pain. Functional compensation and decompensation are subject to numerous factors that can change which makes estimation of an individual's long-term prognosis difficult. Compensation and decompensation may influence radiographic signs of degeneration, e.g. the degree of misalignment and segmental angulation caused by LSI is influenced by the tonus of the local musculature. This conceptual model of compensation/decompensation may help solve the debate on functional and psychosocial factors that influence low back pain and to establish a new definition of non-specific low back pain. Individual differences of identical structural disorders could be explained by compensated or decompensated LSI leading to changes in clinical symptoms and pain. Future spine surgery will have to carefully define and measure functional aspects of LSI, e.g. to identify a point of no return where multidisciplinary interventions do not allow a re-compensation and surgery becomes the treatment of choice.
Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland
Resumo:
While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
The northern section of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin has been the site of intensive U exploitation with harmful impacts on groundwater quality. The understanding of groundwater flow and age distribution is crucial for the prediction of the future dispersion and impact of the contamination. State of the art tracer methods (3H, 3He, 4He, 85Kr, 39Ar and 14C) were, therefore, used to obtain insights to ageing and mixing processes of groundwater along a north–south flow line in the centre of the two most important aquifers of Cenomanian and middle Turonian age. Dating of groundwater is particularly complex in this area as: (i) groundwater in the Cenomanian aquifer is locally affected by fluxes of geogenic and biogenic gases (e.g. CO2, CH4, He) and by fossil brines in basement rocks rich in Cl and SO4; (ii) a thick unsaturated zone overlays the Turonian aquifer; (iii) a periglacial climate and permafrost conditions prevailed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and iv) the wells are mostly screened over large depth intervals. Large disagreements in 85Kr and 3H/3He ages indicate that processes other than ageing have affected the tracer data in the Turonian aquifer. Mixing with older waters (>50 a) was confirmed by 39Ar activities. An inverse modelling approach, which included time lags for tracer transport throughout the unsaturated zone and degassing of 3He, was used to estimate the age of groundwater. Best fits between model and field results were obtained for mean residence times varying from modern up to a few hundred years. The presence of modern water in this aquifer is correlated with the occurrence of elevated pollution (e.g. nitrates). An increase of reactive geochemical indicators (e.g. Na) and radiogenic 4He, and a decrease in 14C along the flow direction confirmed groundwater ageing in the deeper confined Cenomanian aquifer. Radiocarbon ages varied from a few hundred years to more than 20 ka. Initial 14C activity for radiocarbon dating was calibrated by means of 39Ar measurements. The 14C age of a sample recharged during the LGM was further confirmed by depleted stable isotope signatures and near freezing point noble gas temperature. Radiogenic 4He accumulated in groundwater with concentrations increasing linearly with 14C ages. This enabled the use of 4He to validate the dating range of 14C and extend it to other parts of this aquifer. In the proximity of faults, 39Ar in excess of modern concentrations and 14C dead CO2 sources, elevated 3He/4He ratios and volcanic activity in Oligocene to Quaternary demonstrate the influence of gas of deeper origin and impeded the application of 4He, 39Ar and 14C for groundwater dating.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms in children are associated with social skills deficits and problems with peers. We propose a model which suggests different mechanisms for the impact of deficits in self-oriented social skills (assertiveness and social participation) and other-oriented social skills (pro-social, cooperative and non-aggressive behaviors) on children's depressive symptoms. We hypothesized that deficits in self-oriented social skills have a direct impact on children's depressive symptoms because these children have non-rewarding interactions with peers, whereas the impact of deficits in other-oriented social skills on depressive symptoms is mediated through negative reactions from peers such as peer victimization. METHOD: 378 kindergarten children (163 girls) participated at two assessments (Age at T1: M = 5.8, T2: M = 7.4). Teachers completed questionnaires on children's social skills at T1. Teacher reports on peer victimization and depressive symptoms were assessed at both assessment points. RESULTS: Our study partially confirmed the suggested conceptual model. Deficits in self-oriented social skills significantly predicted depressive symptoms, whereas deficits in other-oriented social skills were more strongly associated with peer victimization. Longitudinal associations between other-oriented social skills and depressive symptoms were mediated through peer victimization. CONCLUSION: The study emphasizes the role of deficits in self-oriented social skills and peer victimization for the development of internalizing disorders.
Resumo:
Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.
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The cichlid fish radiations in the African Great Lakes differ from all other known cases of rapid speciation in vertebrates by their spectacular trophic diversity and richness of sympatric species, comparable to the most rapid angiosperm radiations. I review factors that may have facilitated these radiations and compare these with insights from recent work on plant radiations. Work to date suggests that it was a coincidence of ecological opportunity, intrinsic ecological versatility and genomic flexibility, rapidly evolving behavioral mate choice and large amounts of standing genetic variation that permitted these spectacular fish radiations. I propose that spatially orthogonal gradients in the fit of phenotypes to the environment facilitate speciation because they allow colonization of alternative fitness peaks during clinal speciation despite local disruptive selection. Such gradients are manifold in lakes because of the interaction of water depth as an omnipresent third spatial dimension with other fitness-relevant variables. I introduce a conceptual model of adaptive radiation that integrates these elements and discuss its applicability to, and predictions for, plant radiations.
Resumo:
Natural deformation in carbonate mylonites bearing sheet silicates occurs via a complex interaction of granular flow and solution transfer processes and involves continuous cycles of dissolution, grain boundary diffusion, nucleation and growth. In this way, new sheet silicates (a) nucleate within voids formed by grain boundary sliding of calcite grains. (b) grow, and (c) rotate towards the shear plane. As a consequence, small mica grains show a wide range of orientations with respect to the shear plane, but moderate to large grains are subparallel both to each other and to the shear plane. Increases of average grain sizes with increasing temperature of sheet silicates in mica-rich layers is more pronounced than in mica-poor layers. In the calcitic matrix however, sheet silicates can only grow via solution-precipitation and mass transfer processes. Therefore, the observed grain size variability indicates drastic differences in mass transfer behavior between the individual layers, which might be related to differences in the fluid flux. Based on these observations, a conceptual model for the microfabric evolution in sheet silicate bearing mylonites is presented. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
1 Light availability may be crucial for understanding dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions in temperate and tropical forest communities. This is because local light availability can influence both tree seedling tolerance and susceptibility to herbivory – yet how they mediate levels of insect herbivory that vary with the density of host population is virtually unknown. Here we tested predictions of three key, non-mutually exclusive hypotheses of plant–herbivore interactions: the Limiting Resource Model (LRM), the Plant Vigour Hypothesis (PVH), and the Janzen-Connell Mechanism (JCM). 2 In an Amazonian forest, we planted Swietenia macrophylla seedlings (c. 5 months old) into natural canopy gaps and the shaded understorey and simulated the damage patterns of the specialist herbivore moth, Steniscadia poliophaea, by clipping seedling leaves. Over the next 8 months, we monitored seedling performance in terms of growth and survivorship and also quantified herbivory to new young leaves on a seasonal basis. 3 In support of the LRM, severe leaf damage (≥ 50%) was lethal for Swietenia macrophylla seedlings in the understorey, but in gaps only reduced seedling growth. In support of the PVH, gap seedlings suffered greater post-simulated herbivory (up to 100% defoliation) by S. poliophaea caterpillars than their understorey counterparts. 4 Adding a novel dimension to the Janzen–Connell hypothesis, we found that early wet season herbivory of seedlings in gaps increased with conspecific adult density within a 125-m radius; whereas in the understorey only those seedlings within 50 m of a Swietenia tree were attacked by caterpillars. 5 Synthesis. These results suggest lepidopterans that need young leaves for food may forage more widely in forests to find seedlings in light-rich canopy gaps. Moths may achieve this successfully by being first attracted to gaps, and then searching within them for suitable hosts. A conceptual model, integrating conspecific adult tree density with light-driven changes in seedling tolerance/vigour and their susceptibility to herbivory and mortality, is presented. Spatial variation in the light available to tree seedlings often affects their tolerance and vigour, which may have important consequences for leaf-chewing insects and the scale of density-dependent herbivory in forests.
Resumo:
Water-conducting faults and fractures were studied in the granite-hosted A¨ spo¨ Hard Rock Laboratory (SE Sweden). On a scale of decametres and larger, steeply dipping faults dominate and contain a variety of different fault rocks (mylonites, cataclasites, fault gouges). On a smaller scale, somewhat less regular fracture patterns were found. Conceptual models of the fault and fracture geometries and of the properties of rock types adjacent to fractures were derived and used as input for the modelling of in situ dipole tracer tests that were conducted in the framework of the Tracer Retention Understanding Experiment (TRUE-1) on a scale of metres. After the identification of all relevant transport and retardation processes, blind predictions of the breakthroughs of conservative to moderately sorbing tracers were calculated and then compared with the experimental data. This paper provides the geological basis and model calibration, while the predictive and inverse modelling work is the topic of the companion paper [J. Contam. Hydrol. 61 (2003) 175]. The TRUE-1 experimental volume is highly fractured and contains the same types of fault rocks and alterations as on the decametric scale. The experimental flow field was modelled on the basis of a 2D-streamtube formalism with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field. Tracer transport was modelled using the dual porosity medium approach, which is linked to the flow model by the flow porosity. Given the substantial pumping rates in the extraction borehole, the transport domain has a maximum width of a few centimetres only. It is concluded that both the uncertainty with regard to the length of individual fractures and the detailed geometry of the network along the flowpath between injection and extraction boreholes are not critical because flow is largely one-dimensional, whether through a single fracture or a network. Process identification and model calibration were based on a single uranine breakthrough (test PDT3), which clearly showed that matrix diffusion had to be included in the model even over the short experimental time scales, evidenced by a characteristic shape of the trailing edge of the breakthrough curve. Using the geological information and therefore considering limited matrix diffusion into a thin fault gouge horizon resulted in a good fit to the experiment. On the other hand, fresh granite was found not to interact noticeably with the tracers over the time scales of the experiments. While fracture-filling gouge materials are very efficient in retarding tracers over short periods of time (hours–days), their volume is very small and, with time progressing, retardation will be dominated by altered wall rock and, finally, by fresh granite. In such rocks, both porosity (and therefore the effective diffusion coefficient) and sorption Kds are more than one order of magnitude smaller compared to fault gouge, thus indicating that long-term retardation is expected to occur but to be less pronounced.
Resumo:
Located in the northeastern region of Italy, the Venetian Plain (VP) is a sedimentary basin containing an extensively exploited groundwater system. The northern part is characterised by a large undifferentiated phreatic aquifer constituted by coarse grain alluvial deposits and recharged by local rainfalls and discharges from the rivers Brenta and Piave. The southern plain is characterised by a series of aquitards and sandy aquifers forming a well-defined artesian multi-aquifer system. In order to determine origins, transit times and mixing proportions of different components in groundwater (GW), a multi tracer study (H, He/He, C, CFC, SF, Kr, Ar, Sr/Sr, O, H, cations, and anions) has been carried out in VP between the rivers Brenta and Piave. The geochemical pattern of GW allows a distinction of the different water origins in the system, in particular based on View the MathML source HCO3-,SO42-,Ca/Mg,NO3-, O, H. A radiogenic Sr signature clearly marks GW originated from the Brenta and Tertiary catchments. End-member analysis and geochemical modelling highlight the existence of a mixing process involving waters recharged from the Brenta and Piave rivers, from the phreatic aquifer and from another GW reservoirs characterised by very low mineralization. Noble gas excesses in respect to atmospheric equilibrium occur in all samples, particularly in the deeper aquifers of the Piave river, but also in phreatic water of the undifferentiated aquifers. He–H ages in the phreatic aquifer and in the shallower level of the multi-aquifer system indicate recharge times in the years 1970–2008. The progression of H–He ages with the distance from the recharge areas together with initial tritium concentration (H + Hetrit) imply an infiltration rate of about 1 km/y and the absence of older components in these GW. SF and Kr data corroborate these conclusions. H − He ages in the deeper artesian aquifers suggest a dilution process with older, tritium free waters. C Fontes–Garnier model ages of the old GW components range from 1 to 12 ka, yielding an apparent GW velocity of about 1–10 m/y. Increase of radiogenic He follows the progression of C ages. Ar, radiogenic He and C tracers yield model-dependent age-ranges in overall good agreement once diffusion of C from aquitards, GW dispersion, lithogenic Ar production, and He production-rate heterogeneities are taken into account. The rate of radiogenic He increase with time, deduced by comparison with C model ages, is however very low compared to other studies. Comparison with C and C data obtained 40 years ago on the same aquifer system shows that exploitation of GW caused a significant loss of the old groundwater reservoir during this time.